Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 26 October 2026, after the last game
Necaxa have the biggest shortfall in the Liga MX: 10 points from chances worth 21.0 xPts, a gap of 11.0. At the other end, Atlas have taken 24 points from an xPts figure of 17.9, 6.1 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tijuana | 8 | 14 | 16.8 | -2.8 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 | +7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | 16 | 16.6 | -0.6 |
| 2 | Toluca | 7 | 18 | 16.3 | +1.7 | 11 | 7.6 | +3.4 | +7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | 11 | 14.7 | -3.7 |
| 3 | Monterrey | 7 | 13 | 12.8 | +0.2 | 8 | 6.6 | +1.4 | +5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 13 | 13.6 | -0.6 |
| 4 | Santos Laguna | 7 | 10 | 14.0 | -4.0 | 3 | 7.9 | -4.9 | +7 | 6.2 | +0.8 | 13 | 13.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | Necaxa | 8 | 9 | 15.5 | -6.5 | 15 | 13.0 | +2.0 | -6 | 2.5 | -8.5 | 7 | 12.6 | -5.6 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 7 | 17 | 14.2 | +2.8 | 12 | 10.9 | +1.1 | +5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | 13 | 11.8 | +1.2 |
| 7 | Guadalajara | 7 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 | 7 | 8.0 | -1.0 | +4 | 2.3 | +1.7 | 13 | 11.1 | +1.9 |
| 8 | América | 6 | 12 | 9.8 | +2.2 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | +7 | 3.7 | +3.3 | 11 | 10.7 | +0.3 |
| 9 | Atlético San Luis | 7 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 | 11 | 9.0 | +2.0 | -2 | -0.1 | -1.9 | 8 | 9.9 | -1.9 |
| 10 | Tigres UANL | 6 | 9 | 10.4 | -1.4 | 7 | 8.6 | -1.6 | +2 | 1.9 | +0.1 | 11 | 9.7 | +1.3 |
| 11 | León | 7 | 13 | 10.9 | +2.1 | 10 | 10.6 | -0.6 | +3 | 0.2 | +2.8 | 13 | 9.7 | +3.3 |
| 12 | Atlante | 7 | 7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | 10 | 9.0 | +1.0 | -3 | -0.3 | -2.7 | 6 | 9.1 | -3.1 |
| 13 | Atlas | 8 | 12 | 10.7 | +1.3 | 17 | 14.0 | +3.0 | -5 | -3.3 | -1.7 | 9 | 9.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | Pumas UNAM | 7 | 10 | 9.6 | +0.4 | 12 | 10.9 | +1.1 | -2 | -1.3 | -0.7 | 7 | 8.7 | -1.7 |
| 15 | Querétaro | 6 | 8 | 10.2 | -2.2 | 9 | 10.7 | -1.7 | -1 | -0.5 | -0.5 | 7 | 8.1 | -1.1 |
| 16 | Juárez | 7 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 | 12 | 10.3 | +1.7 | -7 | -2.8 | -4.2 | 4 | 7.7 | -3.7 |
| 17 | Pachuca | 6 | 10 | 10.6 | -0.6 | 13 | 12.5 | +0.5 | -3 | -1.9 | -1.1 | 3 | 7.3 | -4.3 |
| 18 | Puebla | 6 | 7 | 5.4 | +1.6 | 10 | 9.6 | +0.4 | -3 | -4.2 | +1.2 | 6 | 5.7 | +0.3 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 7 | 15 | 13.8 | +1.2 | 11 | 8.6 | +2.4 | +4 | 5.1 | -1.1 | 13 | 12.8 | +0.2 |
| 2 | América | 7 | 21 | 16.4 | +4.6 | 13 | 11.9 | +1.1 | +8 | 4.4 | +3.6 | 16 | 12.3 | +3.7 |
| 3 | Toluca | 7 | 11 | 11.2 | -0.2 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | +3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | 12 | 11.0 | +1.0 |
| 4 | Guadalajara | 7 | 10 | 10.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 8.4 | -3.4 | +5 | 1.6 | +3.4 | 13 | 10.6 | +2.4 |
| 5 | León | 7 | 8 | 10.6 | -2.6 | 8 | 10.5 | -2.5 | +0 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 9 | 9.9 | -0.9 |
| 6 | Querétaro | 7 | 9 | 10.3 | -1.3 | 9 | 11.7 | -2.7 | +0 | -1.4 | +1.4 | 13 | 9.1 | +3.9 |
| 7 | Tigres UANL | 8 | 6 | 10.8 | -4.8 | 12 | 13.3 | -1.3 | -6 | -2.5 | -3.5 | 4 | 9.1 | -5.1 |
| 8 | Atlante | 7 | 7 | 9.0 | -2.0 | 10 | 10.4 | -0.4 | -3 | -1.4 | -1.6 | 8 | 8.9 | -0.9 |
| 9 | Atlas | 6 | 13 | 10.7 | +2.3 | 9 | 9.9 | -0.9 | +4 | 0.8 | +3.2 | 15 | 8.8 | +6.2 |
| 10 | Necaxa | 6 | 7 | 9.5 | -2.5 | 12 | 8.9 | +3.1 | -5 | 0.6 | -5.6 | 3 | 8.4 | -5.4 |
| 11 | Puebla | 8 | 9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | 11 | 12.3 | -1.3 | -2 | -3.9 | +1.9 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 |
| 12 | Pachuca | 8 | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 | 6 | 13.4 | -7.4 | +6 | -5.3 | +11.3 | 13 | 8.3 | +4.7 |
| 13 | Monterrey | 6 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 | +0 | -1.1 | +1.1 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 7 | 10 | 9.5 | +0.5 | 17 | 13.1 | +3.9 | -7 | -3.6 | -3.4 | 6 | 7.5 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Pumas UNAM | 7 | 10 | 6.6 | +3.4 | 11 | 10.5 | +0.5 | -1 | -3.8 | +2.8 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 |
| 16 | Atlético San Luis | 7 | 10 | 7.6 | +2.4 | 11 | 14.3 | -3.3 | -1 | -6.6 | +5.6 | 11 | 5.7 | +5.3 |
| 17 | Tijuana | 5 | 7 | 6.4 | +0.6 | 10 | 9.5 | +0.5 | -3 | -3.1 | +0.1 | 4 | 4.9 | -0.9 |
| 18 | Juárez | 7 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | 21 | 17.4 | +3.6 | -17 | -11.1 | -5.9 | 1 | 4.1 | -3.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santos Laguna | 5 | 11 | 10.3 | +0.7 | 5 | 5.9 | -0.9 | +6 | 4.5 | +1.5 | 12 | 9.6 | +2.4 |
| 2 | América | 5 | 16 | 12.2 | +3.8 | 10 | 8.1 | +1.9 | +6 | 4.2 | +1.8 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 5 | 16 | 10.5 | +5.5 | 8 | 7.5 | +0.5 | +8 | 3.1 | +4.9 | 11 | 8.8 | +2.2 |
| 4 | Toluca | 5 | 9 | 10.3 | -1.3 | 10 | 7.8 | +2.2 | -1 | 2.5 | -3.5 | 4 | 8.4 | -4.4 |
| 5 | Necaxa | 5 | 6 | 11.0 | -5.0 | 11 | 9.8 | +1.2 | -5 | 1.2 | -6.2 | 2 | 7.7 | -5.7 |
| 6 | Tijuana | 5 | 9 | 8.6 | +0.4 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 | +2 | 0.9 | +1.1 | 6 | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 5 | 9 | 7.8 | +1.2 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 | +1 | 1.3 | -0.3 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 |
| 8 | Atlas | 5 | 12 | 9.6 | +2.4 | 11 | 8.5 | +2.5 | +1 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 |
| 9 | Guadalajara | 5 | 4 | 6.8 | -2.8 | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | +0 | 0.6 | -0.6 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 |
| 10 | León | 5 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | +1 | 0.2 | +0.8 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 |
| 11 | Atlante | 5 | 6 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | -1 | 0.4 | -1.4 | 6 | 6.9 | -0.9 |
| 12 | Tigres UANL | 5 | 6 | 7.9 | -1.9 | 6 | 8.2 | -2.2 | +0 | -0.3 | +0.3 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 |
| 13 | Querétaro | 5 | 6 | 7.9 | -1.9 | 10 | 8.8 | +1.2 | -4 | -0.8 | -3.2 | 6 | 6.8 | -0.8 |
| 14 | Pumas UNAM | 5 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 | 10 | 8.8 | +1.2 | -2 | -1.6 | -0.4 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 |
| 15 | Juárez | 5 | 3 | 6.1 | -3.1 | 10 | 8.5 | +1.5 | -7 | -2.5 | -4.5 | 2 | 5.6 | -3.6 |
| 16 | Atlético San Luis | 5 | 8 | 6.5 | +1.5 | 6 | 10.4 | -4.4 | +2 | -3.9 | +5.9 | 10 | 4.7 | +5.3 |
| 17 | Puebla | 5 | 5 | 4.6 | +0.4 | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 | -5 | -3.8 | -1.2 | 2 | 4.3 | -2.3 |
| 18 | Pachuca | 5 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 | 9 | 11.8 | -2.8 | -2 | -6.9 | +4.9 | 4 | 3.1 | +0.9 |
América are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in Liga MX in 2026/2027, with 33 goals from chances worth 26.1 xG, a gap of 6.9. Cruz Azul are next on 4.1.
Necaxa are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in Liga MX in 2026/2027, with 16 goals from chances worth 25.0 xG, a shortfall of 9.0. Tigres UANL are next on 6.3.
Atlas are the luckiest side in Liga MX in 2026/2027, with 24 points from performances worth 17.9 xPts, 6.1 more than their chances deserved. Guadalajara are next on 4.3.
Necaxa are the unluckiest side in Liga MX in 2026/2027, with 10 points from performances worth 21.0 xPts, 11.0 short of what they deserved. Juárez are next on 6.8.
Toluca would be top of Liga MX in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 25.7 xPts from 27.5 xG created and 16.9 conceded across 14 matches. Cruz Azul are next on 24.5.
Cruz Azul have created the most xG in Liga MX in 2026/2027, 27.9 from 14 matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Toluca are next on 27.5.
Puebla and Juárez share the least xG in Liga MX in 2026/2027, both on 13.8 from 14 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Pumas UNAM are next on 16.2.
Juárez have conceded the most xG in Liga MX in 2026/2027, 27.7 from 14 matches, 2.0 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Pachuca are next on 25.9.
Monterrey have conceded the least xG in Liga MX in 2026/2027, 16.0 from 13 matches, 1.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Guadalajara are next on 16.4.
Liga MX teams have averaged 1.52 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 124 matches played, and have scored 1.50 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.36 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Liga MX teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.63 a game against 1.40 away, a home advantage of +0.24, against +0.28 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 14 | 29 | 27.5 | +1.5 | 19 | 16.9 | +2.1 | +10 | 10.6 | -0.6 | 23 | 25.7 | -2.7 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 14 | 32 | 27.9 | +4.1 | 23 | 19.6 | +3.4 | +9 | 8.4 | +0.6 | 26 | 24.5 | +1.5 |
| 3 | América | 13 | 33 | 26.1 | +6.9 | 18 | 18.0 | +0.0 | +15 | 8.1 | +6.9 | 27 | 23.0 | +4.0 |
| 4 | Guadalajara | 14 | 21 | 20.4 | +0.6 | 12 | 16.4 | -4.4 | +9 | 4.0 | +5.0 | 26 | 21.7 | +4.3 |
| 5 | Tijuana | 13 | 21 | 23.1 | -2.1 | 17 | 17.5 | -0.5 | +4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | 20 | 21.5 | -1.5 |
| 6 | Monterrey | 13 | 23 | 21.1 | +1.9 | 18 | 16.0 | +2.0 | +5 | 5.1 | -0.1 | 20 | 21.2 | -1.2 |
| 7 | Necaxa | 14 | 16 | 25.0 | -9.0 | 27 | 21.9 | +5.1 | -11 | 3.1 | -14.1 | 10 | 21.0 | -11.0 |
| 8 | Santos Laguna | 14 | 20 | 23.5 | -3.5 | 20 | 20.9 | -0.9 | +0 | 2.6 | -2.6 | 19 | 20.5 | -1.5 |
| 9 | León | 14 | 21 | 21.5 | -0.5 | 18 | 21.1 | -3.1 | +3 | 0.3 | +2.7 | 22 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 10 | Tigres UANL | 14 | 15 | 21.3 | -6.3 | 19 | 21.9 | -2.9 | -4 | -0.6 | -3.4 | 15 | 18.8 | -3.8 |
| 11 | Atlante | 14 | 14 | 17.7 | -3.7 | 20 | 19.4 | +0.6 | -6 | -1.7 | -4.3 | 14 | 18.0 | -4.0 |
| 12 | Atlas | 14 | 25 | 21.4 | +3.6 | 26 | 23.9 | +2.1 | -1 | -2.5 | +1.5 | 24 | 17.9 | +6.1 |
| 13 | Querétaro | 13 | 17 | 20.5 | -3.5 | 18 | 22.4 | -4.4 | -1 | -1.9 | +0.9 | 20 | 17.2 | +2.8 |
| 14 | Pumas UNAM | 14 | 20 | 16.2 | +3.8 | 23 | 21.3 | +1.7 | -3 | -5.1 | +2.1 | 17 | 16.1 | +0.9 |
| 15 | Atlético San Luis | 14 | 19 | 16.6 | +2.4 | 22 | 23.3 | -1.3 | -3 | -6.7 | +3.7 | 19 | 15.6 | +3.4 |
| 16 | Pachuca | 14 | 22 | 18.7 | +3.3 | 19 | 25.9 | -6.9 | +3 | -7.2 | +10.2 | 16 | 15.6 | +0.4 |
| 17 | Puebla | 14 | 16 | 13.8 | +2.2 | 21 | 21.9 | -0.9 | -5 | -8.1 | +3.1 | 16 | 14.0 | +2.0 |
| 18 | Juárez | 14 | 9 | 13.8 | -4.8 | 33 | 27.7 | +5.3 | -24 | -13.9 | -10.1 | 5 | 11.8 | -6.8 |