Puebla have the biggest shortfall in the Liga MX: 25 points from chances worth 35.0 xPts, a gap of 10.0. At the other end, Cruz Azul have taken 68 points from an xPts figure of 58.4, 9.6 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guadalajara | 17 | 39 | 33.0 | +6.0 | 17 | 13.6 | +3.4 | +22 | 19.4 | +2.6 | 36 | 35.3 | +0.7 |
| 2 | Toluca | 17 | 43 | 34.6 | +8.4 | 18 | 16.9 | +1.1 | +25 | 17.7 | +7.3 | 38 | 34.4 | +3.6 |
| 3 | Tigres UANL | 17 | 38 | 28.7 | +9.3 | 14 | 15.2 | -1.2 | +24 | 13.5 | +10.5 | 34 | 31.3 | +2.7 |
| 4 | América | 17 | 28 | 25.9 | +2.1 | 16 | 12.6 | +3.4 | +12 | 13.3 | -1.3 | 34 | 31.3 | +2.7 |
| 5 | Cruz Azul | 17 | 35 | 27.1 | +7.9 | 17 | 15.3 | +1.7 | +18 | 11.8 | +6.2 | 39 | 31.1 | +7.9 |
| 6 | Monterrey | 17 | 31 | 31.4 | -0.4 | 23 | 20.3 | +2.7 | +8 | 11.1 | -3.1 | 28 | 30.0 | -2.0 |
| 7 | Juárez | 17 | 30 | 25.8 | +4.2 | 27 | 16.6 | +10.4 | +3 | 9.1 | -6.1 | 25 | 28.0 | -3.0 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM | 17 | 30 | 27.1 | +2.9 | 19 | 21.4 | -2.4 | +11 | 5.7 | +5.3 | 27 | 26.8 | +0.2 |
| 9 | Pachuca | 17 | 23 | 20.1 | +2.9 | 18 | 16.2 | +1.8 | +5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | 29 | 26.1 | +2.9 |
| 10 | Tijuana | 17 | 27 | 23.6 | +3.4 | 12 | 18.4 | -6.4 | +15 | 5.2 | +9.8 | 30 | 26.0 | +4.0 |
| 11 | Necaxa | 17 | 21 | 24.0 | -3.0 | 17 | 21.7 | -4.7 | +4 | 2.4 | +1.6 | 23 | 24.8 | -1.8 |
| 12 | León | 17 | 26 | 26.2 | -0.2 | 26 | 24.8 | +1.2 | +0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | 24 | 23.9 | +0.1 |
| 13 | Santos Laguna | 17 | 25 | 26.3 | -1.3 | 22 | 28.0 | -6.0 | +3 | -1.7 | +4.7 | 26 | 22.5 | +3.5 |
| 14 | Querétaro | 17 | 23 | 24.3 | -1.3 | 20 | 25.2 | -5.2 | +3 | -0.8 | +3.8 | 26 | 22.3 | +3.7 |
| 15 | Atlético San Luis | 17 | 23 | 18.4 | +4.6 | 26 | 19.9 | +6.1 | -3 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 14 | 22.0 | -8.0 |
| 16 | Atlas | 17 | 25 | 20.7 | +4.3 | 22 | 26.3 | -4.3 | +3 | -5.7 | +8.7 | 28 | 19.8 | +8.2 |
| 17 | Puebla | 17 | 20 | 19.7 | +0.3 | 32 | 28.0 | +4.0 | -12 | -8.3 | -3.7 | 16 | 18.7 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Mazatlán | 17 | 29 | 21.7 | +7.3 | 32 | 32.1 | -0.1 | -3 | -10.5 | +7.5 | 23 | 17.9 | +5.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 17 | 28 | 27.6 | +0.4 | 16 | 18.7 | -2.7 | +12 | 8.9 | +3.1 | 29 | 28.3 | +0.7 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 17 | 28 | 24.3 | +3.7 | 21 | 18.7 | +2.3 | +7 | 5.6 | +1.4 | 29 | 27.3 | +1.7 |
| 3 | Guadalajara | 17 | 23 | 25.8 | -2.8 | 22 | 20.3 | +1.7 | +1 | 5.5 | -4.5 | 29 | 27.2 | +1.8 |
| 4 | Tigres UANL | 17 | 25 | 24.8 | +0.2 | 20 | 19.6 | +0.4 | +5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | 27 | 26.4 | +0.6 |
| 5 | América | 17 | 25 | 21.5 | +3.5 | 19 | 16.8 | +2.2 | +6 | 4.7 | +1.3 | 25 | 25.2 | -0.2 |
| 6 | Pachuca | 17 | 23 | 22.1 | +0.9 | 22 | 23.1 | -1.1 | +1 | -1.0 | +2.0 | 24 | 23.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 17 | 24 | 23.1 | +0.9 | 30 | 24.6 | +5.4 | -6 | -1.4 | -4.6 | 21 | 22.5 | -1.5 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM | 17 | 28 | 24.2 | +3.8 | 23 | 26.7 | -3.7 | +5 | -2.6 | +7.6 | 30 | 22.5 | +7.5 |
| 9 | Atlético San Luis | 17 | 26 | 22.5 | +3.5 | 30 | 27.0 | +3.0 | -4 | -4.6 | +0.6 | 20 | 22.0 | -2.0 |
| 10 | Juárez | 17 | 23 | 21.2 | +1.8 | 33 | 28.3 | +4.7 | -10 | -7.1 | -2.9 | 17 | 19.6 | -2.6 |
| 11 | León | 17 | 10 | 17.4 | -7.4 | 37 | 28.1 | +8.9 | -27 | -10.7 | -16.3 | 11 | 18.1 | -7.1 |
| 12 | Tijuana | 17 | 21 | 20.9 | +0.1 | 28 | 30.3 | -2.3 | -7 | -9.4 | +2.4 | 17 | 17.9 | -0.9 |
| 13 | Querétaro | 17 | 13 | 15.0 | -2.0 | 30 | 24.9 | +5.1 | -17 | -9.9 | -7.1 | 14 | 16.6 | -2.6 |
| 14 | Puebla | 17 | 14 | 15.4 | -1.4 | 36 | 26.5 | +9.5 | -22 | -11.1 | -10.9 | 9 | 16.3 | -7.3 |
| 15 | Necaxa | 17 | 22 | 19.0 | +3.0 | 40 | 31.3 | +8.7 | -18 | -12.4 | -5.6 | 12 | 16.1 | -4.1 |
| 16 | Atlas | 17 | 15 | 14.9 | +0.1 | 31 | 29.2 | +1.8 | -16 | -14.3 | -1.7 | 15 | 14.6 | +0.4 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 17 | 17 | 17.0 | +0.0 | 44 | 33.0 | +11.0 | -27 | -16.0 | -11.0 | 6 | 14.6 | -8.6 |
| 18 | Mazatlán | 17 | 13 | 15.9 | -2.9 | 34 | 31.4 | +2.6 | -21 | -15.4 | -5.6 | 6 | 13.9 | -7.9 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guadalajara | 5 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 | 6 | 3.6 | +2.4 | +2 | 4.7 | -2.7 | 6 | 9.9 | -3.9 |
| 2 | Tigres UANL | 5 | 10 | 7.0 | +3.0 | 4 | 3.0 | +1.0 | +6 | 4.0 | +2.0 | 8 | 9.8 | -1.8 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 5 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 | 6 | 4.8 | +1.2 | +2 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 |
| 4 | Querétaro | 5 | 8 | 8.0 | +0.0 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | +3 | 1.9 | +1.1 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 5 | 4 | 7.8 | -3.8 | 9 | 5.7 | +3.3 | -5 | 2.1 | -7.1 | 4 | 8.0 | -4.0 |
| 6 | León | 5 | 9 | 7.2 | +1.8 | 8 | 5.8 | +2.2 | +1 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 9 | 8.0 | +1.0 |
| 7 | Pumas UNAM | 5 | 13 | 9.6 | +3.4 | 5 | 8.1 | -3.1 | +8 | 1.5 | +6.5 | 13 | 7.8 | +5.2 |
| 8 | Atlético San Luis | 5 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 | +0 | 1.0 | -1.0 | 7 | 7.6 | -0.6 |
| 9 | América | 5 | 7 | 5.3 | +1.7 | 6 | 4.6 | +1.4 | +1 | 0.7 | +0.3 | 8 | 7.3 | +0.7 |
| 10 | Juárez | 5 | 7 | 8.9 | -1.9 | 11 | 9.2 | +1.8 | -4 | -0.3 | -3.7 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 |
| 11 | Toluca | 5 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 | +0 | 0.0 | +0.0 | 4 | 6.9 | -2.9 |
| 12 | Necaxa | 5 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | 9 | 5.6 | +3.4 | -4 | -0.4 | -3.6 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 |
| 13 | Pachuca | 5 | 10 | 6.2 | +3.8 | 9 | 7.9 | +1.1 | +1 | -1.7 | +2.7 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 |
| 14 | Tijuana | 5 | 7 | 7.1 | -0.1 | 3 | 8.4 | -5.4 | +4 | -1.3 | +5.3 | 11 | 5.9 | +5.1 |
| 15 | Santos Laguna | 5 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 | 8 | 7.0 | +1.0 | -2 | -1.5 | -0.5 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 |
| 16 | Mazatlán | 5 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | 14 | 9.9 | +4.1 | -6 | -3.7 | -2.3 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 |
| 17 | Atlas | 5 | 2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 2 | 7.5 | -5.5 | +0 | -5.2 | +5.2 | 8 | 3.2 | +4.8 |
| 18 | Puebla | 5 | 3 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 11 | 9.6 | +1.4 | -8 | -6.1 | -1.9 | 1 | 3.2 | -2.2 |
Cruz Azul overperformed their xG by more than any other side in Liga MX in 2025/2026, with 63 goals from chances worth 51.4 xG, a gap of 11.6. Tigres UANL were next on 9.5.
León underperformed their xG by more than any other side in Liga MX in 2025/2026, with 36 goals from chances worth 43.6 xG, a shortfall of 7.6. Querétaro were next on 3.3.
Cruz Azul were the luckiest side in Liga MX in 2025/2026, with 68 points from performances worth 58.4 xPts, 9.6 more than their chances deserved. Atlas were next on 8.6.
Atlético San Luis and Puebla were the unluckiest sides in Liga MX in 2025/2026, both 10.0 short of their expected points, Atlético San Luis 34 points from 44.0, Puebla 25 points from 35.0. León were next on 6.9.
Toluca would be top of Liga MX in 2025/2026 on expected points, with 62.7 xPts from 62.2 xG created and 35.6 conceded across 34 matches. Guadalajara were next on 62.5.
Toluca created the most xG in Liga MX in 2025/2026, 62.2 from 34 matches, 1.8 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Guadalajara were next on 58.8.
Puebla created the least xG in Liga MX in 2025/2026, 35.1 from 34 matches, 1.0 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Atlas were next on 35.5.
Mazatlán conceded the most xG in Liga MX in 2025/2026, 63.5 from 34 matches, 1.9 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Santos Laguna were next on 61.0.
América conceded the least xG in Liga MX in 2025/2026, 29.4 from 34 matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.4. Guadalajara were next on 33.9.
Liga MX teams averaged 1.36 xG a game in 2025/2026, from the 306 matches played, and scored 1.46 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.25 xG a game in 2024/2025.
Liga MX teams created more xG at home in 2025/2026, 1.50 a game against 1.22 away, a home advantage of +0.28, against +0.30 in 2024/2025.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 34 | 71 | 62.2 | +8.8 | 34 | 35.6 | -1.6 | +37 | 26.6 | +10.4 | 67 | 62.7 | +4.3 |
| 2 | Guadalajara | 34 | 62 | 58.8 | +3.2 | 39 | 33.9 | +5.1 | +23 | 24.8 | -1.8 | 65 | 62.5 | +2.5 |
| 3 | Cruz Azul | 34 | 63 | 51.4 | +11.6 | 38 | 34.1 | +3.9 | +25 | 17.4 | +7.6 | 68 | 58.4 | +9.6 |
| 4 | Tigres UANL | 34 | 63 | 53.5 | +9.5 | 34 | 34.7 | -0.7 | +29 | 18.7 | +10.3 | 61 | 57.7 | +3.3 |
| 5 | América | 34 | 53 | 47.3 | +5.7 | 35 | 29.4 | +5.6 | +18 | 18.0 | +0.0 | 59 | 56.5 | +2.5 |
| 6 | Monterrey | 34 | 55 | 54.5 | +0.5 | 53 | 44.9 | +8.1 | +2 | 9.7 | -7.7 | 49 | 52.5 | -3.5 |
| 7 | Pachuca | 34 | 46 | 42.2 | +3.8 | 40 | 39.3 | +0.7 | +6 | 2.9 | +3.1 | 53 | 49.4 | +3.6 |
| 8 | Pumas UNAM | 34 | 58 | 51.3 | +6.7 | 42 | 48.1 | -6.1 | +16 | 3.2 | +12.8 | 57 | 49.3 | +7.7 |
| 9 | Juárez | 34 | 53 | 47.0 | +6.0 | 60 | 44.9 | +15.1 | -7 | 2.1 | -9.1 | 42 | 47.6 | -5.6 |
| 10 | Atlético San Luis | 34 | 49 | 40.8 | +8.2 | 56 | 46.9 | +9.1 | -7 | -6.1 | -0.9 | 34 | 44.0 | -10.0 |
| 11 | Tijuana | 34 | 48 | 44.5 | +3.5 | 40 | 48.6 | -8.6 | +8 | -4.2 | +12.2 | 47 | 43.9 | +3.1 |
| 12 | León | 34 | 36 | 43.6 | -7.6 | 63 | 52.9 | +10.1 | -27 | -9.3 | -17.7 | 35 | 41.9 | -6.9 |
| 13 | Necaxa | 34 | 43 | 43.0 | +0.0 | 57 | 53.0 | +4.0 | -14 | -10.0 | -4.0 | 35 | 40.9 | -5.9 |
| 14 | Querétaro | 34 | 36 | 39.3 | -3.3 | 50 | 50.0 | +0.0 | -14 | -10.7 | -3.3 | 40 | 38.9 | +1.1 |
| 15 | Santos Laguna | 34 | 42 | 43.2 | -1.2 | 66 | 61.0 | +5.0 | -24 | -17.7 | -6.3 | 32 | 37.1 | -5.1 |
| 16 | Puebla | 34 | 34 | 35.1 | -1.1 | 68 | 54.5 | +13.5 | -34 | -19.4 | -14.6 | 25 | 35.0 | -10.0 |
| 17 | Atlas | 34 | 40 | 35.5 | +4.5 | 53 | 55.5 | -2.5 | -13 | -20.0 | +7.0 | 43 | 34.4 | +8.6 |
| 18 | Mazatlán | 34 | 42 | 37.6 | +4.4 | 66 | 63.5 | +2.5 | -24 | -25.9 | +1.9 | 29 | 31.8 | -2.8 |