No, Samsunspor have taken 25 points over their last 20 Super Lig games, within 1.24 of the 26.24 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Samsunspor create 1.37 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Super Lig games, 27.49 in all, and have scored 28 goals from those chances, 0.51 more than that xG would expect.
Samsunspor allow 1.50 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Super Lig games, 30.03 in all, and have conceded 37 goals from those chances, 6.97 more than that xGA would expect.
Marius Mouandilmadji has the most expected goals (xG) for Samsunspor over their last 20 Super Lig games, 6.73 xG in 14 appearances, and has scored 8 goals; Tanguy Coulibaly is next with 2.57 xG.
Samsunspor's results and their chances agree, within 1.2 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 27.49 | 28 | +0.51 | 30.03 | 37 | -6.97 | 26.24 | 25 | -1.24 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 13.16 | 10 | -3.16 | 16.84 | 22 | -5.16 | 11.75 | 7 | -4.75 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.51 | 2 | -4.51 | 6.10 | 14 | -7.90 | 7.03 | 0 | -7.03 |
| Home | 10 | 16.46 | 17 | +0.54 | 14.34 | 18 | -3.66 | 15.04 | 15 | -0.04 |
| Away | 10 | 11.03 | 11 | -0.03 | 15.69 | 19 | -3.31 | 11.20 | 10 | -1.20 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Super Lig | Kasımpaşa (A) | 4-1 | 1.46 | 2.16 | 0.98 | 0 | L |
| 10 Oct | Super Lig | Trabzonspor (H) | 0-3 | 1.50 | 1.21 | 1.57 | 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | Super Lig | Erzurumspor (A) | 1-0 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 1.09 | 0 | D |
| 12 Sep | Super Lig | Çorum FK (H) | 1-5 | 1.03 | 1.01 | 1.37 | 0 | W |
| 6 Sep | Super Lig | Kocaelispor (A) | 1-0 | 2.05 | 1.05 | 2.02 | 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | Super Lig | Fenerbahçe (H) | 0-2 | 0.63 | 1.82 | 0.58 | 0 | L |
| 22 Aug | Super Lig | Rizespor (A) | 0-2 | 0.43 | 1.86 | 0.43 | 3 | L |
| 17 Aug | Super Lig | Göztepe (H) | 3-3 | 3.07 | 1.17 | 2.38 | 1 | W |
| 16 May | Super Lig | Göztepe (H) | 3-0 | 2.07 | 2.44 | 1.20 | 3 | L |
| 9 May | Super Lig | Başakşehir (A) | 3-0 | 0.45 | 3.45 | 0.13 | 0 | L |
| 2 May | Super Lig | Galatasaray (H) | 4-1 | 1.24 | 1.19 | 1.40 | 3 | W |
| 27 Apr | Super Lig | Alanyaspor (A) | 2-3 | 1.26 | 1.16 | 1.44 | 3 | W |
| 19 Apr | Super Lig | Beşiktaş (H) | 2-1 | 1.30 | 1.70 | 1.12 | 3 | L |
| 13 Apr | Super Lig | Eyüpspor (A) | 1-2 | 1.32 | 1.66 | 1.16 | 3 | L |
| 9 Apr | Super Lig | Rizespor (A) | 4-1 | 1.75 | 1.69 | 1.43 | 0 | W |
| 5 Apr | Super Lig | Konyaspor (H) | 2-2 | 2.28 | 2.63 | 1.22 | 1 | L |
| 15 Mar | Super Lig | Kayserispor (H) | 2-1 | 2.47 | 0.94 | 2.29 | 3 | W |
| 8 Mar | Super Lig | Fenerbahçe (A) | 3-2 | 1.27 | 1.22 | 1.40 | 0 | W |
| 1 Mar | Super Lig | Gaziantep (H) | 0-0 | 0.87 | 0.23 | 1.91 | 1 | W |
| 22 Feb | Super Lig | Fatih Karagümrük (A) | 0-0 | 0.57 | 0.77 | 1.12 | 1 | D |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherif Ndiaye | attacker | 9 | 484 | 1.64 | 3 | +1.36 | 0.30 |
| Logi Tómasson | defender | 17 | 1516 | 0.65 | 2 | +1.35 | 0.04 |
| Marius Mouandilmadji | attacker | 14 | 1063 | 6.73 | 8 | +1.27 | 0.57 |
| Carlo Holse | midfielder | 11 | 965 | 2.24 | 3 | +0.76 | 0.21 |
| Afonso Sousa | midfielder | 8 | 129 | 0.38 | 1 | +0.62 | 0.26 |
| Antoine Makoumbou | midfielder | 13 | 923 | 0.52 | 1 | +0.48 | 0.05 |
| Tanguy Coulibaly | attacker | 11 | 645 | 2.57 | 3 | +0.43 | 0.36 |
| Joe Mendes | defender | 19 | 1421 | 0.57 | 1 | +0.43 | 0.04 |
| Fatih Kaya | attacker | 4 | 170 | 0.63 | 1 | +0.37 | 0.33 |
| Celil Yüksel | midfielder | 11 | 920 | 0.77 | 1 | +0.23 | 0.08 |
| Emre Kılınç | attacker | 12 | 958 | 1.10 | 1 | -0.10 | 0.10 |
| Elayis Tavsan | attacker | 12 | 615 | 2.24 | 2 | -0.24 | 0.33 |
| Olivier Ntcham | midfielder | 8 | 454 | 1.69 | 1 | -0.69 | 0.33 |
| Gabriele Guarino | defender | 6 | 540 | 0.69 | 0 | -0.69 | 0.11 |
| Antoine Sekongo | midfielder | 8 | 289 | 0.73 | 0 | -0.73 | 0.23 |
| Saikuba Jarju | attacker | 7 | 457 | 0.85 | 0 | -0.85 | 0.17 |
| Yalçın Kayan | midfielder | 19 | 1149 | 1.40 | 0 | -1.40 | 0.11 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alanyaspor | 8 | 9.1 | 8 | 14.4 | 9 | 8.4 | 12 | +3.6 |
| 2 | Kocaelispor | 8 | 9 | 9 | 13.8 | 8 | 8.5 | 12 | +3.5 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 11.2 | 16 | 11.1 | 5 | 9.6 | 13 | +3.4 |
| 4 | Galatasaray | 8 | 17.1 | 17 | 7.9 | 11 | 16.2 | 19 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Erzurumspor FK | 8 | 6.4 | 5 | 10.2 | 11 | 8.3 | 11 | +2.7 |
| 6 | Kasımpaşa | 8 | 9.7 | 12 | 10.6 | 9 | 10.6 | 13 | +2.4 |
| 7 | Amed SK | 8 | 13.8 | 18 | 7.1 | 9 | 14.8 | 17 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Çorum FK | 8 | 10 | 18 | 11 | 13 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Gençlerbirliği | 8 | 8.8 | 7 | 16.8 | 16 | 7 | 8 | +1 |
| 10 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 12.8 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 14.5 | 15 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Gaziantep F.K. | 7 | 7.7 | 7 | 11.3 | 10 | 7.7 | 8 | +0.3 |
| 12 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 20.1 | 22 | 7.9 | 6 | 16.4 | 16 | -0.4 |
| 13 | Rizespor | 8 | 10.1 | 8 | 10.3 | 11 | 11.1 | 10 | -1.1 |
| 14 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 7 | 11.1 | 10 | 10.3 | 11 | 10.5 | 8 | -2.5 |
| 15 | Göztepe | 8 | 15.7 | 17 | 14.6 | 16 | 11.8 | 9 | -2.8 |
| 16 | Eyüpspor | 8 | 6.5 | 2 | 14.8 | 22 | 7 | 3 | -4 |
| 17 | Konyaspor | 8 | 8.1 | 4 | 9.8 | 9 | 9.7 | 5 | -4.7 |
| 18 | Samsunspor | 8 | 10.7 | 7 | 10.9 | 19 | 10.4 | 4 | -6.4 |