No, Paderborn have taken 5 points over their last 6 Bundesliga games, within 0.34 of the 5.34 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Paderborn create 1.06 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 6 Bundesliga games, 6.34 in all, and have scored 5 goals from those chances, 1.34 fewer than that xG would expect.
Paderborn allow 1.81 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 6 Bundesliga games, 10.88 in all, and have conceded 9 goals from those chances, 1.88 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Stefano Marino has the most expected goals (xG) for Paderborn over their last 6 Bundesliga games, 1.45 xG in 6 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Steffen Tigges is next with 1.14 xG.
Paderborn's results and their chances agree, within 0.3 points of xPts over 6 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 6 | 6 | 6.34 | 5 | -1.34 | 10.88 | 9 | +1.88 | 5.34 | 5 | -0.34 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.39 | 5 | -0.39 | 9.55 | 9 | +0.55 | 4.26 | 4 | -0.26 |
| Home | 3 | 3.68 | 3 | -0.68 | 5.26 | 4 | +1.26 | 3.09 | 3 | -0.09 |
| Away | 3 | 2.66 | 2 | -0.66 | 5.62 | 5 | +0.62 | 2.25 | 2 | -0.25 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct | Bundesliga | Bremen (A) | 2-2 | 1.25 | 2.57 | 0.67 | 1 | L |
| 10 Oct | Bundesliga | Stuttgart (H) | 0-2 | 1.78 | 2.16 | 1.18 | 0 | L |
| 20 Sep | Bundesliga | Hoffenheim (H) | 3-1 | 1.09 | 1.81 | 0.92 | 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | Bundesliga | Dortmund (A) | 3-0 | 0.46 | 1.72 | 0.50 | 0 | L |
| 5 Sep | Bundesliga | Freiburg (H) | 0-1 | 0.81 | 1.29 | 0.99 | 0 | L |
| 29 Aug | Bundesliga | Mainz (A) | 0-0 | 0.95 | 1.33 | 1.08 | 1 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steffen Tigges | attacker | 6 | 229 | 1.14 | 2 | +0.86 | 0.45 |
| Santiago Castaneda | midfielder | 6 | 540 | 0.34 | 1 | +0.66 | 0.06 |
| Stefano Marino | attacker | 6 | 351 | 1.45 | 2 | +0.55 | 0.37 |
| Marvin Pieringer | attacker | 6 | 393 | 0.85 | 0 | -0.85 | 0.20 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamburger SV | 6 | 5.8 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 4.6 | 9 | +4.4 |
| 2 | Elversberg | 6 | 11 | 12 | 14.2 | 11 | 6.1 | 10 | +3.9 |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 10 | 11 | 5.5 | 4 | 11.3 | 14 | +2.7 |
| 4 | FC Augsburg | 6 | 12.9 | 16 | 18.9 | 12 | 5.7 | 8 | +2.3 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 8.5 | 12 | 9.6 | 12 | 7.4 | 9 | +1.6 |
| 6 | SC Freiburg | 6 | 11.5 | 15 | 6 | 6 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 7 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 13.5 | 16 | 7.4 | 9 | 11.7 | 13 | +1.3 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 10.6 | 10 | 13.9 | 16 | 7 | 8 | +1 |
| 9 | Schalke 04 | 6 | 6.6 | 4 | 11.5 | 7 | 5.2 | 5 | -0.2 |
| 10 | Paderborn | 6 | 6.3 | 5 | 10.9 | 9 | 5.3 | 5 | -0.3 |
| 11 | FC Bayern München | 6 | 19.2 | 22 | 5.1 | 5 | 15 | 14 | -1 |
| 12 | FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 13 | 14 | 8.7 | 10 | 11 | 10 | -1 |
| 13 | FC Köln | 6 | 10.3 | 8 | 11.3 | 11 | 8 | 7 | -1 |
| 14 | RB Leipzig | 6 | 13.1 | 16 | 9.9 | 11 | 10.2 | 9 | -1.2 |
| 15 | FC Union Berlin | 6 | 7.5 | 5 | 11.2 | 17 | 7.1 | 5 | -2.1 |
| 16 | VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 12 | 8 | 11.4 | 10 | 8.5 | 6 | -2.5 |
| 17 | TSG Hoffenheim | 6 | 11 | 11 | 8.9 | 14 | 9.7 | 6 | -3.7 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 6 | 9.4 | 8 | 16 | 20 | 5.2 | 0 | -5.2 |