No, Kocaelispor have taken 19 points over their last 20 Super Lig games, within 2.48 of the 21.48 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Kocaelispor create 1.02 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Super Lig games, 20.36 in all, and have scored 14 goals from those chances, 6.36 fewer than that xG would expect.
Kocaelispor allow 1.47 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Super Lig games, 29.49 in all, and have conceded 24 goals from those chances, 5.49 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Serdar Dursun has the most expected goals (xG) for Kocaelispor over their last 20 Super Lig games, 3.26 xG in 12 appearances, and has scored 3 goals; Dan Agyei is next with 2.67 xG.
Kocaelispor's results and their chances agree, within 2.5 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 20.36 | 14 | -6.36 | 29.49 | 24 | +5.49 | 21.48 | 19 | -2.48 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 9.93 | 9 | -0.93 | 16.27 | 10 | +6.27 | 10.25 | 12 | +1.75 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.43 | 5 | -1.43 | 9.04 | 5 | +4.04 | 5.53 | 6 | +0.47 |
| Home | 9 | 10.94 | 8 | -2.94 | 11.94 | 7 | +4.94 | 11.49 | 11 | -0.49 |
| Away | 11 | 9.42 | 6 | -3.42 | 17.55 | 17 | +0.55 | 9.99 | 8 | -1.99 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Oct | Super Lig | Göztepe (H) | 1-2 | 1.50 | 1.12 | 1.63 | 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | Super Lig | Beşiktaş (A) | 2-1 | 1.65 | 2.16 | 1.10 | 0 | L |
| 19 Sep | Super Lig | Gaziantep (H) | 2-0 | 1.52 | 1.12 | 1.65 | 3 | W |
| 13 Sep | Super Lig | Galatasaray (A) | 1-0 | 0.71 | 2.59 | 0.38 | 0 | L |
| 6 Sep | Super Lig | Samsunspor (H) | 1-0 | 1.05 | 2.05 | 0.77 | 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | Super Lig | Konyaspor (A) | 1-2 | 0.80 | 1.11 | 1.10 | 3 | L |
| 24 Aug | Super Lig | Amed SK (H) | 2-0 | 1.22 | 0.86 | 1.63 | 3 | W |
| 16 Aug | Super Lig | Başakşehir (A) | 2-0 | 0.52 | 2.82 | 0.24 | 0 | L |
| 17 May | Super Lig | Antalyaspor (A) | 1-0 | 0.49 | 2.06 | 0.40 | 0 | L |
| 9 May | Super Lig | Fatih Karagümrük (H) | 0-1 | 0.47 | 0.38 | 1.35 | 0 | D |
| 3 May | Super Lig | Kasımpaşa (A) | 1-1 | 0.70 | 1.33 | 0.88 | 1 | L |
| 26 Apr | Super Lig | Gençler (A) | 1-0 | 0.97 | 1.25 | 1.14 | 0 | L |
| 18 Apr | Super Lig | Göztepe (H) | 1-1 | 3.21 | 0.77 | 2.61 | 1 | W |
| 12 Apr | Super Lig | Galatasaray (A) | 1-1 | 0.77 | 1.29 | 0.96 | 1 | L |
| 6 Apr | Super Lig | Başakşehir (H) | 0-0 | 0.86 | 1.98 | 0.68 | 1 | L |
| 18 Mar | Super Lig | Alanyaspor (A) | 5-0 | 0.25 | 0.98 | 0.65 | 0 | L |
| 14 Mar | Super Lig | Konyaspor (H) | 1-2 | 0.57 | 2.52 | 0.33 | 0 | L |
| 9 Mar | Super Lig | Eyüpspor (A) | 0-1 | 1.62 | 0.79 | 1.96 | 3 | W |
| 28 Feb | Super Lig | Beşiktaş (H) | 0-1 | 0.54 | 1.14 | 0.84 | 0 | L |
| 20 Feb | Super Lig | Rizespor (A) | 2-0 | 0.94 | 1.17 | 1.18 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkan Kutlu | midfielder | 8 | 657 | 1.14 | 3 | +1.86 | 0.16 |
| Matej Maglica | defender | 5 | 295 | 0.21 | 1 | +0.79 | 0.06 |
| Florian Ayé | attacker | 6 | 327 | 0.52 | 1 | +0.48 | 0.14 |
| Show | midfielder | 18 | 1598 | 0.56 | 1 | +0.44 | 0.03 |
| Massadio Haïdara | defender | 14 | 1042 | 0.92 | 1 | +0.08 | 0.08 |
| Serdar Dursun | attacker | 12 | 773 | 3.26 | 3 | -0.26 | 0.38 |
| Habib Keïta | midfielder | 12 | 895 | 0.63 | 0 | -0.63 | 0.06 |
| Makana Baku | attacker | 8 | 351 | 0.64 | 0 | -0.64 | 0.17 |
| Dan Agyei | attacker | 20 | 1562 | 2.67 | 2 | -0.67 | 0.15 |
| Metehan Altunbaş | attacker | 8 | 282 | 1.71 | 1 | -0.71 | 0.55 |
| Rigoberto Rivas | attacker | 13 | 783 | 0.71 | 0 | -0.71 | 0.08 |
| Mahamadou Susoho | midfielder | 15 | 976 | 0.72 | 0 | -0.72 | 0.07 |
| Gonçalo Sousa | attacker | 7 | 578 | 1.03 | 0 | -1.03 | 0.16 |
| Tayfur Bingöl | attacker | 15 | 711 | 1.13 | 0 | -1.13 | 0.14 |
| Darko Churlinov | attacker | 11 | 455 | 1.70 | 0 | -1.70 | 0.34 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alanyaspor | 8 | 9.1 | 8 | 14.4 | 9 | 8.4 | 12 | +3.6 |
| 2 | Kocaelispor | 8 | 9 | 9 | 13.8 | 8 | 8.5 | 12 | +3.5 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 11.2 | 16 | 11.1 | 5 | 9.6 | 13 | +3.4 |
| 4 | Galatasaray | 8 | 17.1 | 17 | 7.9 | 11 | 16.2 | 19 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Erzurumspor FK | 8 | 6.4 | 5 | 10.2 | 11 | 8.3 | 11 | +2.7 |
| 6 | Kasımpaşa | 8 | 9.7 | 12 | 10.6 | 9 | 10.6 | 13 | +2.4 |
| 7 | Amed SK | 8 | 13.8 | 18 | 7.1 | 9 | 14.8 | 17 | +2.2 |
| 8 | Çorum FK | 8 | 10 | 18 | 11 | 13 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 9 | Gençlerbirliği | 8 | 8.8 | 7 | 16.8 | 16 | 7 | 8 | +1 |
| 10 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 12.8 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 14.5 | 15 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Gaziantep F.K. | 7 | 7.7 | 7 | 11.3 | 10 | 7.7 | 8 | +0.3 |
| 12 | Fenerbahçe | 8 | 20.1 | 22 | 7.9 | 6 | 16.4 | 16 | -0.4 |
| 13 | Rizespor | 8 | 10.1 | 8 | 10.3 | 11 | 11.1 | 10 | -1.1 |
| 14 | İstanbul Başakşehir | 7 | 11.1 | 10 | 10.3 | 11 | 10.5 | 8 | -2.5 |
| 15 | Göztepe | 8 | 15.7 | 17 | 14.6 | 16 | 11.8 | 9 | -2.8 |
| 16 | Eyüpspor | 8 | 6.5 | 2 | 14.8 | 22 | 7 | 3 | -4 |
| 17 | Konyaspor | 8 | 8.1 | 4 | 9.8 | 9 | 9.7 | 5 | -4.7 |
| 18 | Samsunspor | 8 | 10.7 | 7 | 10.9 | 19 | 10.4 | 4 | -6.4 |