No, Excelsior have taken 23 points over their last 20 Eredivisie games, 5.11 fewer than the 28.11 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Excelsior create 1.60 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Eredivisie games, 32.00 in all, and have scored 34 goals from those chances, 2.00 more than that xG would expect.
Excelsior allow 1.60 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Eredivisie games, 31.96 in all, and have conceded 35 goals from those chances, 3.04 more than that xGA would expect.
Noah Naujoks has the most expected goals (xG) for Excelsior over their last 20 Eredivisie games, 5.93 xG in 13 appearances, and has scored 6 goals; Irakli Yegoian is next with 3.69 xG.
Excelsior have taken 5.1 points fewer than their chances warranted over 20 games: +2.0 goals against their xG, and -3.0 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 32.00 | 34 | +2.00 | 31.96 | 35 | -3.04 | 28.11 | 23 | -5.11 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 15.04 | 19 | +3.96 | 17.68 | 20 | -2.32 | 12.90 | 14 | +1.10 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.48 | 6 | -0.48 | 11.21 | 15 | -3.79 | 4.67 | 2 | -2.67 |
| Home | 9 | 13.87 | 12 | -1.87 | 11.84 | 16 | -4.16 | 13.37 | 7 | -6.37 |
| Away | 11 | 18.13 | 22 | +3.87 | 20.12 | 19 | +1.12 | 14.74 | 16 | +1.26 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct | Eredivisie | Heerenveen (A) | 4-0 | 1.06 | 2.42 | 0.62 | 0 | L |
| 11 Oct | Eredivisie | FC Groningen (H) | 1-5 | 2.08 | 2.57 | 1.14 | 0 | L |
| 19 Sep | Eredivisie | Ajax (A) | 2-2 | 0.59 | 3.53 | 0.16 | 1 | L |
| 13 Sep | Eredivisie | FC Utrecht (H) | 1-2 | 0.91 | 1.48 | 0.96 | 0 | L |
| 8 Sep | Eredivisie | NEC Nijmegen (A) | 2-2 | 1.84 | 1.21 | 1.79 | 1 | W |
| 5 Sep | Eredivisie | Willem II (A) | 0-3 | 1.73 | 1.18 | 1.74 | 3 | W |
| 29 Aug | Eredivisie | Sparta (H) | 2-1 | 1.75 | 0.87 | 1.98 | 3 | W |
| 15 Aug | Eredivisie | PSV (H) | 1-2 | 0.66 | 2.06 | 0.51 | 0 | L |
| 7 Aug | Eredivisie | SC Cambuur (A) | 0-4 | 2.51 | 0.79 | 2.40 | 3 | W |
| 17 May | Eredivisie | Sparta (A) | 2-3 | 1.91 | 1.57 | 1.60 | 3 | W |
| 10 May | Eredivisie | FC Volendam (H) | 1-1 | 0.45 | 0.42 | 1.27 | 1 | D |
| 2 May | Eredivisie | FC Groningen (A) | 2-3 | 2.42 | 0.95 | 2.26 | 3 | W |
| 26 Apr | Eredivisie | FC Utrecht (H) | 5-0 | 2.76 | 0.87 | 2.44 | 3 | W |
| 12 Apr | Eredivisie | PEC Zwolle (A) | 2-2 | 2.06 | 2.22 | 1.31 | 1 | L |
| 4 Apr | Eredivisie | NEC Nijmegen (H) | 0-2 | 0.66 | 1.06 | 1.00 | 0 | L |
| 20 Mar | Eredivisie | Heracles Almelo (A) | 1-1 | 1.15 | 1.43 | 1.17 | 1 | L |
| 15 Mar | Eredivisie | Feyenoord (A) | 2-1 | 1.25 | 2.45 | 0.72 | 0 | L |
| 7 Mar | Eredivisie | Heerenveen (H) | 1-2 | 2.74 | 1.83 | 1.89 | 0 | W |
| 1 Mar | Eredivisie | GA Eagles (H) | 0-1 | 1.86 | 0.68 | 2.18 | 0 | W |
| 20 Feb | Eredivisie | Fortuna (A) | 2-1 | 1.61 | 2.37 | 0.97 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derensili Sanches Fernandes | attacker | 11 | 945 | 2.89 | 5 | +2.11 | 0.28 |
| Aymen Sliti | attacker | 9 | 515 | 1.43 | 3 | +1.57 | 0.25 |
| Arthur Zagré | defender | 10 | 875 | 1.15 | 2 | +0.85 | 0.12 |
| Casper Widell | defender | 20 | 1726 | 1.40 | 2 | +0.60 | 0.07 |
| Irakli Yegoian | midfielder | 20 | 1700 | 3.69 | 4 | +0.31 | 0.20 |
| Szymon Wlodarczyk | attacker | 11 | 129 | 0.73 | 1 | +0.27 | 0.51 |
| Noah Naujoks | midfielder | 13 | 1050 | 5.93 | 6 | +0.07 | 0.51 |
| David Garden | attacker | 9 | 624 | 2.95 | 3 | +0.05 | 0.43 |
| Rick Meissen | defender | 20 | 1604 | 0.98 | 1 | +0.02 | 0.05 |
| Lennard Hartjes | midfielder | 20 | 1697 | 1.99 | 2 | +0.01 | 0.11 |
| Nesto Groen | attacker | 5 | 103 | 1.05 | 1 | -0.05 | 0.91 |
| Lewis Schouten | defender | 11 | 910 | 0.55 | 0 | -0.55 | 0.05 |
| Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson | midfielder | 7 | 487 | 0.57 | 0 | -0.57 | 0.10 |
| Mario Dominguez | attacker | 5 | 104 | 0.83 | 0 | -0.83 | 0.71 |
| Gyan de Regt | attacker | 12 | 1006 | 2.65 | 1 | -1.65 | 0.24 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 8 | 16 | 21.7 | 17 | 6.6 | 15 | +8.4 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 9 | 25.3 | 31 | 9.1 | 10 | 20.5 | 23 | +2.5 |
| 3 | FC Groningen | 9 | 15.2 | 22 | 18.2 | 19 | 11.6 | 14 | +2.4 |
| 4 | AZ | 9 | 21.7 | 20 | 9.9 | 10 | 18.1 | 20 | +1.9 |
| 5 | PSV | 9 | 22.2 | 27 | 11.1 | 12 | 18.3 | 19 | +0.7 |
| 6 | FC Utrecht | 9 | 12.5 | 16 | 17 | 26 | 10.7 | 11 | +0.3 |
| 7 | SC Heerenveen | 9 | 13.6 | 15 | 14.3 | 11 | 12.1 | 12 | -0.1 |
| 8 | Excelsior | 9 | 13.1 | 16 | 16.1 | 18 | 11.3 | 11 | -0.3 |
| 9 | PEC Zwolle | 9 | 10.6 | 10 | 20.5 | 22 | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
| 10 | Ajax | 9 | 24 | 27 | 11.3 | 12 | 19 | 18 | -1 |
| 11 | SC Cambuur | 9 | 12.8 | 13 | 16.3 | 21 | 10.2 | 9 | -1.2 |
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 9 | 17 | 20 | 16.7 | 21 | 12.9 | 11 | -1.9 |
| 13 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 8.4 | 11 | 17.4 | 20 | 8 | 6 | -2 |
| 14 | FC Twente | 9 | 20.2 | 17 | 7.7 | 10 | 19.5 | 17 | -2.5 |
| 15 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 16.9 | 16 | 19.2 | 22 | 11.5 | 9 | -2.5 |
| 16 | Telstar | 9 | 12.6 | 10 | 20.6 | 18 | 8.5 | 6 | -2.5 |
| 17 | NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 16.7 | 15 | 15.6 | 16 | 12.9 | 10 | -2.9 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 12.1 | 9 | 20.4 | 26 | 8.1 | 2 | -6.1 |