Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 18 October 2026, after the last game
Willem II have the biggest shortfall in the Eredivisie: 2 points from chances worth 8.1 xPts, a gap of 6.1. At the other end, Fortuna Sittard have taken 15 points from an xPts figure of 6.6, 8.4 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Twente | 5 | 10 | 13.2 | -3.2 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | +5 | 9.4 | -4.4 | 12 | 12.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | Ajax | 5 | 11 | 12.7 | -1.7 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 | +2 | 5.7 | -3.7 | 6 | 9.8 | -3.8 |
| 3 | PSV | 4 | 13 | 12.5 | +0.5 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | +9 | 7.8 | +1.2 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 |
| 4 | AZ | 4 | 9 | 10.2 | -1.2 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 | +6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 |
| 5 | Feyenoord | 4 | 11 | 9.9 | +1.1 | 4 | 3.5 | +0.5 | +7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | 8 | 9.0 | -1.0 |
| 6 | NEC Nijmegen | 5 | 7 | 9.8 | -2.8 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 | -3 | 2.4 | -5.4 | 3 | 7.9 | -4.9 |
| 7 | FC Groningen | 5 | 11 | 9.2 | +1.8 | 11 | 8.8 | +2.2 | +0 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 |
| 8 | SC Heerenveen | 5 | 7 | 7.5 | -0.5 | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 | +2 | 0.2 | +1.8 | 7 | 6.9 | +0.1 |
| 9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 4 | 11 | 7.1 | +3.9 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | +5 | 2.1 | +2.9 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 |
| 10 | Telstar | 5 | 8 | 9.3 | -1.3 | 15 | 10.6 | +4.4 | -7 | -1.2 | -5.8 | 2 | 6.5 | -4.5 |
| 11 | Sparta Rotterdam | 5 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 | 12 | 10.8 | +1.2 | -4 | -1.3 | -2.7 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 |
| 12 | SC Cambuur | 5 | 8 | 7.8 | +0.2 | 15 | 9.2 | +5.8 | -7 | -1.4 | -5.6 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 |
| 13 | ADO Den Haag | 4 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | 9 | 4.9 | +4.1 | -3 | 0.1 | -3.1 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 |
| 14 | Excelsior | 4 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | 10 | 7.0 | +3.0 | -5 | -1.6 | -3.4 | 3 | 4.6 | -1.6 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 5 | 5 | 6.3 | -1.3 | 14 | 11.5 | +2.5 | -9 | -5.2 | -3.8 | 3 | 4.5 | -1.5 |
| 16 | Willem II | 4 | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 | -7 | -2.0 | -5.0 | 1 | 4.4 | -3.4 |
| 17 | FC Utrecht | 4 | 8 | 5.3 | +2.7 | 14 | 8.3 | +5.7 | -6 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 4 | 4.2 | -0.2 |
| 18 | Fortuna Sittard | 4 | 5 | 3.8 | +1.2 | 9 | 11.7 | -2.7 | -4 | -7.8 | +3.8 | 4 | 2.8 | +1.2 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 5 | 20 | 15.4 | +4.6 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | +14 | 9.9 | +4.1 | 15 | 11.5 | +3.5 |
| 2 | Ajax | 4 | 16 | 11.3 | +4.7 | 3 | 4.3 | -1.3 | +13 | 7.0 | +6.0 | 12 | 9.3 | +2.7 |
| 3 | AZ | 5 | 11 | 11.5 | -0.5 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | +4 | 5.5 | -1.5 | 10 | 8.8 | +1.2 |
| 4 | PSV | 5 | 14 | 9.7 | +4.3 | 8 | 6.4 | +1.6 | +6 | 3.3 | +2.7 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 4 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | +2 | 3.4 | -1.4 | 5 | 7.8 | -2.8 |
| 6 | Excelsior | 5 | 11 | 7.7 | +3.3 | 8 | 9.1 | -1.1 | +3 | -1.4 | +4.4 | 8 | 6.7 | +1.3 |
| 7 | FC Utrecht | 5 | 8 | 7.2 | +0.8 | 12 | 9.0 | +3.0 | -4 | -1.8 | -2.2 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 5 | 9 | 9.5 | -0.5 | 15 | 11.8 | +3.2 | -6 | -2.3 | -3.7 | 3 | 5.8 | -2.8 |
| 9 | SC Heerenveen | 4 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | 6 | 7.0 | -1.0 | +2 | -0.8 | +2.8 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 4 | 8 | 7.4 | +0.6 | 10 | 8.4 | +1.6 | -2 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 4 | 5.2 | -1.2 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 4 | 8 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 6 | 8.1 | -2.1 | +2 | -1.3 | +3.3 | 7 | 5.0 | +2.0 |
| 12 | SC Cambuur | 4 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | -1 | -2.3 | +1.3 | 5 | 4.1 | +0.9 |
| 13 | FC Groningen | 4 | 11 | 6.0 | +5.0 | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 | +3 | -3.4 | +6.4 | 7 | 4.1 | +2.9 |
| 14 | Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 11 | 4.2 | +6.8 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 | +3 | -5.9 | +8.9 | 11 | 3.9 | +7.1 |
| 15 | Willem II | 5 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | 16 | 12.8 | +3.2 | -10 | -6.3 | -3.7 | 1 | 3.6 | -2.6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 4 | 5 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 | -3 | -4.2 | +1.2 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 5 | 5 | 3.4 | +1.6 | 11 | 12.5 | -1.5 | -6 | -9.1 | +3.1 | 2 | 2.4 | -0.4 |
| 18 | Telstar | 4 | 2 | 3.2 | -1.2 | 3 | 10.0 | -7.0 | -1 | -6.8 | +5.8 | 4 | 2.0 | +2.0 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ajax | 5 | 18 | 15.5 | +2.5 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 | +11 | 9.5 | +1.5 | 11 | 11.4 | -0.4 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 5 | 21 | 13.8 | +7.2 | 4 | 4.8 | -0.8 | +17 | 9.0 | +8.0 | 15 | 11.2 | +3.8 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 5 | 8 | 11.6 | -3.6 | 5 | 4.2 | +0.8 | +3 | 7.4 | -4.4 | 10 | 10.9 | -0.9 |
| 4 | AZ | 5 | 7 | 8.9 | -1.9 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | +0 | 2.9 | -2.9 | 8 | 8.6 | -0.6 |
| 5 | SC Heerenveen | 5 | 10 | 8.7 | +1.3 | 5 | 6.7 | -1.7 | +5 | 2.0 | +3.0 | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 |
| 6 | PSV | 5 | 12 | 10.8 | +1.2 | 7 | 8.6 | -1.6 | +5 | 2.3 | +2.7 | 9 | 8.1 | +0.9 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 5 | 9 | 10.5 | -1.5 | 12 | 8.8 | +3.2 | -3 | 1.7 | -4.7 | 4 | 8.1 | -4.1 |
| 8 | Sparta Rotterdam | 5 | 9 | 11.2 | -2.2 | 15 | 10.2 | +4.8 | -6 | 1.0 | -7.0 | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 |
| 9 | SC Cambuur | 5 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 | 5 | 7.3 | -2.3 | +4 | 0.2 | +3.8 | 9 | 6.8 | +2.2 |
| 10 | FC Utrecht | 5 | 10 | 7.5 | +2.5 | 11 | 8.8 | +2.2 | -1 | -1.3 | +0.3 | 10 | 6.6 | +3.4 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 5 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 | -3 | -1.2 | -1.8 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 |
| 12 | FC Groningen | 5 | 13 | 8.4 | +4.6 | 9 | 10.6 | -1.6 | +4 | -2.2 | +6.2 | 8 | 5.9 | +2.1 |
| 13 | ADO Den Haag | 5 | 7 | 5.2 | +1.8 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 | -2 | -4.0 | +2.0 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| 14 | Excelsior | 5 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | 15 | 11.2 | +3.8 | -9 | -4.7 | -4.3 | 2 | 4.7 | -2.7 |
| 15 | Telstar | 5 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 8 | 11.8 | -3.8 | -3 | -5.6 | +2.6 | 2 | 4.2 | -2.2 |
| 16 | Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 8 | 4.2 | +3.8 | 10 | 10.2 | -0.2 | -2 | -6.0 | +4.0 | 8 | 4.2 | +3.8 |
| 17 | Willem II | 5 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 13 | 11.8 | +1.2 | -8 | -5.6 | -2.4 | 1 | 3.9 | -2.9 |
| 18 | PEC Zwolle | 5 | 6 | 5.6 | +0.4 | 14 | 12.0 | +2.0 | -8 | -6.4 | -1.6 | 4 | 3.9 | +0.1 |
Fortuna Sittard are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Eredivisie in 2026/2027, with 16 goals from chances worth 8.0 xG, a gap of 8.0. FC Groningen are next on 6.8.
FC Twente are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Eredivisie in 2026/2027, with 17 goals from chances worth 20.6 xG, a shortfall of 3.6. Willem II are next on 3.1.
Fortuna Sittard are the luckiest side in the Eredivisie in 2026/2027, with 15 points from performances worth 6.6 xPts, 8.4 more than their chances deserved. Feyenoord are next on 2.5.
Willem II are the unluckiest side in the Eredivisie in 2026/2027, with 2 points from performances worth 8.1 xPts, 6.1 short of what they deserved. NEC Nijmegen are next on 2.9.
Feyenoord would also be top of the Eredivisie in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 20.5 xPts from 25.3 xG created and 9.1 conceded across nine matches. FC Twente are next on 19.7.
Feyenoord have created the most xG in the Eredivisie in 2026/2027, 25.3 from nine matches, 2.8 a game against a competition average of 1.7. Ajax are next on 24.0.
Fortuna Sittard have created the least xG in the Eredivisie in 2026/2027, 8.0 from nine matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.7. ADO Den Haag are next on 8.4.
Fortuna Sittard have conceded the most xG in the Eredivisie in 2026/2027, 21.7 from nine matches, 2.4 a game against a competition average of 1.7. Telstar are next on 20.6.
FC Twente have conceded the least xG in the Eredivisie in 2026/2027, 7.7 from nine matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.7. Feyenoord are next on 9.1.
Eredivisie teams have averaged 1.75 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 81 matches played, and have scored 1.92 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.58 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Eredivisie teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.85 a game against 1.64 away, a home advantage of +0.21, against +0.39 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | 31 | 25.3 | +5.7 | 10 | 9.1 | +0.9 | +21 | 16.2 | +4.8 | 23 | 20.5 | +2.5 |
| 2 | FC Twente | 9 | 17 | 20.6 | -3.6 | 10 | 7.7 | +2.3 | +7 | 12.8 | -5.8 | 17 | 19.7 | -2.7 |
| 3 | Ajax | 9 | 27 | 24.0 | +3.0 | 12 | 11.3 | +0.7 | +15 | 12.7 | +2.3 | 18 | 19.0 | -1.0 |
| 4 | PSV | 9 | 27 | 22.2 | +4.8 | 12 | 11.1 | +0.9 | +15 | 11.1 | +3.9 | 19 | 18.3 | +0.7 |
| 5 | AZ | 9 | 20 | 21.7 | -1.7 | 10 | 9.7 | +0.3 | +10 | 12.0 | -2.0 | 20 | 18.2 | +1.8 |
| 6 | NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 15 | 16.7 | -1.7 | 16 | 15.6 | +0.4 | -1 | 1.1 | -2.1 | 10 | 12.9 | -2.9 |
| 7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 9 | 20 | 16.6 | +3.4 | 21 | 16.8 | +4.2 | -1 | -0.2 | -0.8 | 11 | 12.6 | -1.6 |
| 8 | SC Heerenveen | 9 | 15 | 13.6 | +1.4 | 11 | 14.3 | -3.3 | +4 | -0.7 | +4.7 | 12 | 12.1 | -0.1 |
| 9 | FC Groningen | 9 | 22 | 15.2 | +6.8 | 19 | 18.2 | +0.8 | +3 | -3.0 | +6.0 | 14 | 11.6 | +2.4 |
| 10 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 16 | 16.9 | -0.9 | 22 | 19.2 | +2.8 | -6 | -2.3 | -3.7 | 9 | 11.5 | -2.5 |
| 11 | Excelsior | 9 | 16 | 13.1 | +2.9 | 18 | 16.1 | +1.9 | -2 | -3.0 | +1.0 | 11 | 11.3 | -0.3 |
| 12 | FC Utrecht | 9 | 16 | 12.5 | +3.5 | 26 | 17.3 | +8.7 | -10 | -4.8 | -5.2 | 11 | 10.5 | +0.5 |
| 13 | SC Cambuur | 9 | 13 | 12.6 | +0.4 | 21 | 16.3 | +4.7 | -8 | -3.7 | -4.3 | 9 | 10.1 | -1.1 |
| 14 | Telstar | 9 | 10 | 12.6 | -2.6 | 18 | 20.6 | -2.6 | -8 | -8.0 | +0.0 | 6 | 8.5 | -2.5 |
| 15 | Willem II | 9 | 9 | 12.1 | -3.1 | 26 | 20.4 | +5.6 | -17 | -8.2 | -8.8 | 2 | 8.1 | -6.1 |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 11 | 8.4 | +2.6 | 20 | 17.4 | +2.6 | -9 | -9.0 | +0.0 | 6 | 8.0 | -2.0 |
| 17 | PEC Zwolle | 9 | 10 | 10.6 | -0.6 | 22 | 20.1 | +1.9 | -12 | -9.5 | -2.5 | 7 | 7.8 | -0.8 |
| 18 | Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 16 | 8.0 | +8.0 | 17 | 21.7 | -4.7 | -1 | -13.7 | +12.7 | 15 | 6.6 | +8.4 |