Arsenal Have Coped Without Saka Before. This Time Might Be Different

Bukayo Saka played 10 minutes of Arsenal's 2-2 draw at Bayern Munich on Wednesday before coming off. So what do Arsenal look like without him?

Pretty much the same, going by 130 games. Results are a little worse, the underlying numbers barely move, and the sample's too small to say more than that. The part that deserves attention is how much of this season's attack runs through him.

The 130-game record

Since July 2024 Arsenal have played 130 games across the Premier League, the Champions League, the FA Cup and the Carabao Cup. Saka played 60 minutes or more in 67 of them, came on or off for a cameo in 27 and didn't play in 36. In those 36 they took 1.94 points a game, against 2.24 when he played most of the match. They scored 1.81 a game without him against 1.88 with him, and conceded 0.89 against 0.76.

Underneath, the chances look almost identical: an expected goal difference of +0.93 a game without him against +1.02 with him. The gap shows up in the points column and nowhere else, which is what a small sample and a handful of close results look like.

Why it proves less than it looks

• It's 36 games. The points gap is 0.29 a game with a standard error of 0.26, so the plausible range runs from a small negative to nearly a point a game (t=1.13, p=0.26).
• "Did not play" covers a lot. It includes injuries, rest and unused substitutes, so it's a rough proxy for absence. Seven of the 36 were cup ties, where Arsenal rotate.
• Opposition varies. Games without Saka lean towards cup rounds and congested spells: 7 of the 36 were cup ties, against 4 of the 67 with him.
• The league tells the same story. In the Premier League, Arsenal took 2.26 points a game in the 47 matches where he played 60 minutes or more and 1.85 in the 20 where he didn't, with an expected goal difference of +0.93 against +0.74 (t=0.78).

This season is different

His share of the attack is much bigger than last year's. In the Premier League he has 3 goals from 3.63 expected in 596 minutes (the full table is on the attacking player stats page), with 17 of Arsenal's 87 shots, 20% of the total, and 10 of their 31 on target, 32%. His expected goals are 29% of the team's 12.5, up from 11% of 71.2 last season, and his expected goals per 90 have gone from 0.31 to 0.55. It's only seven games, but it's the number that could make his absence matter more than the 130-game average suggests.

Kai Havertz (2.14 expected goals) and Martin Ødegaard (1.90) are next on the team's list, and the likeliest deputies on the wing haven't played much. The rest of the numbers are on the Arsenal squad page.

Noni Madueke has the passing profile, with 4.6 key passes per 90 from 158 minutes, but none of the likely cover matches Saka's mix of shots and chance quality, and none of these samples is big enough to lean on.

Saturday and after

Arsenal host Everton on Saturday at 3pm UK, and the team sheet will say more than any statistic. If Saka's out, watch the shots and chance quality of whoever starts on the right, though that'll be another small sample. Arsenal are first in the Premier League xG table on expected goal difference per game (+0.89), so there's a strong base for it to land on. Everton have their own numbers on the team page, and more on Arsenal's players is in our look at Arsenal's foul rates and the Bayern Munich preview.

Data from our own match database, correct to 22 October 2026.