FC Bayern München host Arsenal at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday 21 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in the Champions League league stage. Bayern average 4 goals a game in the competition so far. Arsenal are the tightest, with two wins and no goals conceded. Our model can barely separate them.
Bayern sit 10th in the league phase on 4 points, with a win and a draw from two. Arsenal are 7th on 6 points. Both clubs played in the competition last week, and both have a weekend win behind them since.
Bayern's season has been loud. They beat RB Leipzig 6-1 at home on Saturday in the Bundesliga, four days after a wild 3-3 draw at Viking in this competition. Before that came a 2-2 at Augsburg and a 7-0 win over Union Berlin. In their last ten games they have won seven and drawn three, and they have scored 20 times in their last five.
In the Champions League they average 10 shots on target a game, the 2nd most, and 10.5 corners, the most. They have gone over 2.5 goals in both of their games. The other side of the coin is at the back: they have conceded 1.5 a game, and kept a clean sheet in one of their two. Our model gives them a shots-on-target projection of 5.59 on Wednesday.
Arsenal come in with nine wins in their last ten. The one defeat was a 3-0 loss at Brighton in September. Since then they have beaten Leeds 2-1, Lille 3-0 in the Champions League and, last Sunday, Nottingham Forest 1-0 away.
That Lille win followed an opening win and another clean sheet, which means two wins from two without conceding. They average 8 shots on target a game.
FC Bayern München possible starting lineup:
Urbig; Upamecano, Tah, Davies, Laimer; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Karl, Saibari, DÃaz; Kane
Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Raya; Timber, Magalhães, Konsa, Calafiori; Rice, Lewis-Skelly; Madueke, Ødegaard, Eze; Gyökeres
Harry Kane has had at least one shot on target in all five of his recent games, and that 1+ shot on target market is 1.20 at bet365. He averages 2.4 a game across that sample.
Luis DÃaz has also hit the 1+ shots on target mark in each of his last five, with a high of 4, and is 1.36 at bet365 to do it again.
Ismael Saibari has had at least two shots in each of his last five games, averaging 3.4, with a six-shot night among them. Two or more shots is 1.40 at bet365.
Viktor Gyökeres has committed a foul in each of his last five games, exactly one each time, and 1+ fouls is 1.25 at bet365.
At the back, Ezri Konsa is 1.67 for a foul and 4.00 for two or more. His centre-back partner Gabriel Magalhães has identical prices. Our model ranks both among the likeliest in the match to commit a foul.
We lean to Arsenal by a whisker, at 38% to win against 37% for Bayern, with the draw at 25%. The bookmakers see it differently, with Bayern the 2.00 favourites at bet365 and Arsenal 3.40. The projected goals are almost identical: 1.50 for Bayern and 1.51 for Arsenal.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern win | 2.00 (bet365) | 37% |
| Draw | 3.80 (bet365) | 25% |
| Arsenal win | 3.40 (bet365) | 38% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 61% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 58% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 (midnite) | 81% |
We predict 1-1, the likeliest single scoreline at 12%, though we make Arsenal slightly more likely to win than Bayern, and a draw is in play. Both teams to score is the stronger lean at 61%, and Bayern have scored in every game on this run.
One four-leg combination pairs Kane and DÃaz to have a shot on target, Saibari two or more shots and Gyökeres a foul, at a combined 2.86.