Fleetwood Town host Arsenal at Highbury Stadium in the Carabao Cup fourth round (the last 16) on Tuesday 27 October, kick-off 8pm UK. A League Two side against a club that has won eight of its last ten in all competitions looks lopsided, and our model makes Arsenal 91% to win in 90 minutes with Fleetwood on 2%.
The 91% needs careful handling. Arsenal are expected to rotate, and our projection works from each club's season numbers, so it prices the side that has been winning league games rather than a changed XI. Their 4-2 win at Ipswich Town in the third round on 15 September is the benchmark, and it is set out below.
Fleetwood Town have won all three of their ties in this season's cup, beating Chesterfield 1-0 in the first round, Shrewsbury Town 4-0 in the second and Sheffield United 1-0 in the third, scoring six and conceding none. League form is the other way: they lost 2-1 at Exeter City on Saturday and 4-2 at Cheltenham on 20 October, after a 2-0 home win over Rotherham and a 1-1 draw with Walsall, and a 1-0 defeat at Salford on 3 October. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from their last five league games. Their fouls board shows how they set up without the ball.
Arsenal arrive on a strong run: eight wins, a draw and a defeat from their last ten in all competitions. The latest five are a 2-0 win over Everton on Saturday, a 2-2 draw at Bayern in the Champions League on Wednesday, a 1-0 win at Forest, a 3-0 win over Lille in the Champions League and a 2-1 win over Leeds.
The schedule points the same way. Arsenal are at Liverpool in the Premier League on Sunday 1 November, then at Slavia Praha in the Champions League on Wednesday 4 November.
Arsenal's previous Carabao Cup tie is the best guide to the side. On 15 September they won 4-2 at Ipswich Town in the third round with Kepa Arrizabalaga in goal and an XI of MartÃn Zubimendi, Marli Salmon, Gabriel Magalhães, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Bruno Guimarães, Mikel Merino, Noni Madueke, Max Dowman, Eberechi Eze and Viktor Gyökeres.
That was nine changes from the side that started their previous league game, a 2-0 win at Sunderland on 12 September. Only Gabriel Magalhães and Lewis-Skelly kept their place; Raya, White, Konsa, Calafiori, Rice, Ødegaard, Saka, Tzolis and Havertz did not start.
The split between first team and squad is not clean, though. Six of that Ipswich XI (Gabriel Magalhães, Lewis-Skelly, Merino, Madueke, Eze and Gyökeres) started Saturday's league win over Everton, so a rotated side on Tuesday is likely to mix regulars with players from the wider squad. Arsenal scored four at Ipswich with a changed side and also conceded two.
Bookmakers still have Arsenal at 1.10 with Coral to win. Our model's numbers are the top of the range for them, not the middle, and the predicted lineup further down shows Arsenal's usual XI rather than the rotation we expect.
Fleetwood Town possible starting lineup:
Lynch; Rooney, Neal, Bennett, Potter; McCann, Helm, McLean, Batty; Loupalo-Bi, Coughlan
Arsenal (rotation expected), last round's XI:
Kepa, Zubimendi, Salmon, Gabriel Magalhães, Lewis-Skelly, Guimarães, Merino, Madueke, Dowman, Eze, Gyökeres
Shaun Rooney is the Fleetwood name with the best run. He has made three or more tackles in three straight league games, averaging 3.7, and bet365 offer 2.75 on him to do it again.
Crispin McLean has made a tackle in each of his last three and is 1.22 at bet365 to make it four.
Mark Helm has had a shot in each of his last five games, 10 in total, an average of 2 a game, and is 1.57 at bet365 for one more. Lewis McCann has also had a shot in all of his last five, 7 in total, and is 1.67 at bet365.
We have left Arsenal's player markets out of this one while their XI is open.
Bookmakers have Arsenal at 1.10 with Coral to win, Fleetwood at 23.00 with Ladbrokes and the draw at 12.00 with bet365. Our model agrees on the result, with the caveat above: its numbers are built on Arsenal's season, not the rotated side we expect.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 23.00 (Ladbrokes) | 2% |
| Draw | 12.00 (bet365) | 7% |
| Arsenal win | 1.10 (Coral) | 91% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 (bet365) | 89% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.35 (Ladbrokes) | 72% |
| Both teams to score | 2.63 (Midnite) | 31% |
We predict Arsenal 3-0 on the model's numbers. That is the likeliest single score at 15%, with 2-0 and 4-0 next, and Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 68% of our simulations. Fleetwood are projected to score 0.39 goals. With the changes we expect, the real margin is likelier to be narrower than that and a Fleetwood goal more plausible.
For a Fleetwood bet builder, Lewis McCann to have a shot (1.67) and Mark Helm to have a shot (1.57) are the two legs, and each has had a shot in all of his last five games.