Bradford City and Peterborough United meet at the University of Bradford Stadium on Tuesday 27 October in the Carabao Cup fourth round, kick-off 19:45. Both sides are in League One. In the cup so far Bradford have conceded once in three ties, while Peterborough have scored nine goals and conceded four.
We make Bradford the favourites, but a draw is a real possibility in 90 minutes, and a tie that is level after that goes to a penalty shoot-out. Harry Leonard is the Peterborough player to watch.
Bradford City are unbeaten in nine league games, though the last five brought four draws and a 2-0 win. The most recent was a 0-0 at Oxford Utd on 24 October, four days after a 0-0 at Burton. Before that came a 2-0 win over Stevenage on 17 October, a goalless draw with Orient and a 1-1 at Reading.
In the cup, Bradford beat Rochdale 2-0 at home in round one, drew 0-0 at home to Burnley and went through on penalties, then won 3-1 at Leyton Orient in round three. That is two clean sheets and one goal conceded in three ties, and they averaged 8 shots on target and 9 corners a game in them.
Peterborough United have won one of their last ten league games. They lost 1-0 at Stockport, won 3-1 at Leicester, drew 2-2 at home to Burton, were beaten 4-1 at Huddersfield and then drew 1-1 at Bromley on 24 October.
In the cup, Peterborough won 1-0 at Bristol Rovers in round one, won 5-1 at Watford in round two and drew 3-3 at home to Barnsley in round three before going through. They scored nine goals and conceded four in those three ties, and both teams scored in two of them.
Bradford City possible starting lineup:
McCracken; Pennington, Baldwin, Connolly; O'Keeffe, Pratt, Sarcevic, Phillips, Touray; Pointon, Beesley
Peterborough United possible starting lineup:
Bass; Johnston, Feeney, Mendonça, Mills; Kelly, Ashfield, Shofowoke; Edwards, Williams, Leonard
Harry Leonard leads the Peterborough attack. He has had at least two shots on target in three straight games and at least three shots in each of them, averaging 5.3 shots a game across the run. He is 4.00 at bet365 for two or more shots on target and 2.20 for three or more shots.
Callum Connolly is a centre-back who has made a tackle in three straight games and committed at least one foul in each of his last five. Midnite make him 1.30 to commit a foul.
Ibou Touray has also committed a foul in each of his last five games and is 1.36 at Midnite to do it again. Antoni Sarcevic has had two or more shots in four of his last five games, and Ladbrokes and Coral both offer 1.44 on him to have two or more shots again.
H. Mills, the Peterborough left-back, has had a shot in three straight games and made a tackle in each of them, and is 2.20 at bet365 for another shot.
We back Bradford City, who are 1.75 with Ladbrokes to win in 90 minutes. We give them a 54% chance, with the draw at 26% and Peterborough at 20%. Ladbrokes' 1.75 is the best price on the hosts, and bet365 offer 3.75 on the draw and 5.00 on an away win.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bradford City to win | 1.75 (Ladbrokes) | 54% |
| Draw | 3.75 (bet365) | 26% |
| Peterborough United to win | 5.00 (bet365) | 20% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 (bet365) | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 (bet365) | 46% |
Our projection is Bradford City 1-0 Peterborough United. We have Bradford on 1.63 goals and Peterborough on 0.90, and 1-0 is ahead of 1-1 by the narrowest of margins, 12.4% to 12.3%, so a draw is in play. Bradford keep a clean sheet in 41% of our simulations.
Our projections have a shot total of 15.3 for Bradford against 10.0 for Peterborough, with 5.1 shots on target to 3.3 and 6.4 corners to 4.0. We project 1.86 yellow cards for Bradford and 2.20 for Peterborough.