Celtic host Celta de Vigo at Celtic Park on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in a Europa League league-stage game neither side can afford to lose. Both clubs have played two and lost two, so the points are as precious as the table suggests: Celtic are 33rd of 36 with two goals scored and seven conceded, while Celta de Vigo sit 29th with one scored and three against.
The model cannot split them. It gives Celtic 37% and Celta de Vigo 36%, with the draw at 27%, and has both teams on 1.37 expected goals.
Celtic come in on the back of a goal glut. They beat Hearts 7-1 at home on Sunday in the Scottish Premiership, three days after a 4-1 defeat at Benfica in this competition. Before that they won 2-0 at Motherwell, but they lost to Rangers and Ferencvárosi at home in September. In Europe both of Celtic's games have had goals at both ends, and they have conceded 3.5 a game.
Celta de Vigo were beaten 2-1 by Juventus last Thursday, after a 1-0 defeat at Omonia in their opener. They bounced back on Sunday with a 2-1 win over Alaves in La Liga, having drawn 0-0 at Elche the Sunday before and beaten Racing 5-0 in September. They have scored once in two European games.
Celtic have 5.5 shots on target per game in this competition, while Celta have 3.5, and Celtic win 8.5 corners a game. Our projections have each side taking around 12 shots, with Celtic on 4.5 on target and Celta de Vigo on 4.4.
Celtic possible starting lineup:
Sinisalo; Donovan, Scales, Murray, Tierney; McGregor; Baur, Nygren, Hassan, Tounekti; Durán
Celta de Vigo possible starting lineup:
Radu; Rodríguez, Lago, Alonso, Rueda; Moriba, Carreira, Febas; Álvarez, Swedberg, Jutglà
Kieran Tierney has had a shot in each of his last five games, and the 1+ shots market is 1.53 at bet365, Ladbrokes and Coral. At the other end, Marcos Alonso has made at least one tackle in each of his last five, 10 in total. The 1+ tackles price is 1.29 at bet365.
Liam Scales has made at least one tackle in each of his last five, with 10 in total, and the same market is 1.29 at bet365. Ferran Jutglà has committed a foul in each of his last five, averaging 1.4 a game, and 1+ fouls is 1.36 at bet365.
For a longer price, Camilo Durán to commit 2+ fouls is 3.75. Our model ranks him among the likeliest players in the match for that.
The model has Celtic and Celta de Vigo level at 37% each, with the draw on 27%, so there is no side to back on the result. The interest is in the player markets, where a four-leg builder of Tierney 1+ shots, Alonso 1+ tackles, Scales 1+ tackles and Jutglà 1+ fouls comes to 3.46.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 2.70 (bet365) | 37% |
| Draw | 3.50 (bet365) | 27% |
| Celta de Vigo win | 2.55 (bet365) | 36% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (midnite) | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (bet365) | 52% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 13%, with 1-2 and 2-1 next on 8% each. Both teams to score is 56% likely, and Celtic's last two European games both saw both sides score.