Juventus host Rennes at the Juventus Stadium on Thursday 22 October, kick-off 5:45pm UK, with the Europa League league stage table headed by the home side. Juventus are 1st of 36 on 6 points after two wins and a 7-1 goals record. Rennes are 13th on 4 points, unbeaten in Europe but arriving from a seven-goal thriller in Paris.
Juventus have been two different teams in the last week. In the Europa League they beat NEC Nijmegen 5-0 and then won 2-1 at Celta, which makes them the highest scorers in the competition at 3.5 goals a game. Both games have gone over 2.5 goals, the highest rate of any team. They have also let in just 0.5 a game, the 5th fewest. Domestically, Sunday's 3-0 home loss to Lazio followed a 1-1 draw at Cagliari. They have lost twice in their last ten, and they average 6.5 shots on target a game in Europe.
Rennes were beaten 4-3 at Paris on Sunday, three days after a 2-1 win over OFI in this competition. Before that came a 4-1 win over Auxerre and a 4-0 defeat at Lyon, with a goalless draw at Sturm Graz opening their European campaign. They have scored 1 a game in Europe and conceded 0.5, the same as Juventus, and they win 8.5 corners a game.
Juventus possible starting lineup:
Vicario; Kalulu, Gatti, Kelly, Cambiaso; Koopmeiners, McKennie, Sarr; González, Alajbegovic; Woltemade
Rennes possible starting lineup:
Samba; Frankowski, Cresswell, Ait Boudlal, Nagida; Camara, Rongier, Szymanski; Blas, Tamari, Dia
Weston McKennie has made at least one tackle in each of his last five games, with 13 across that run and a high of 5. He is 1.20 at bet365 to make one again.
Mahdi Camara has had a shot in each of his last five, 7 in total, and is 1.50 at bet365 to have one.
Sebastian Szymanski has had a shot in four of his last five, including three in one game, and is 1.57 at bet365 to add another.
Valentin Rongier has committed a foul in all of his last five matches, and is 1.17 at bet365 to commit at least one again.
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal is rated by our model as one of the likeliest Rennes players to commit a foul, and 1.44 for one foul is one to note in a side that commits few. He is 3.00 for two.
We back Juventus to win, with the best price 1.57 at bet365. Our model gives them a 64% chance, with the draw at 20% and Rennes at 16%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Juventus win | 1.57 (bet365) | 64% |
| Draw | 4.33 (Ladbrokes) | 20% |
| Rennes win | 6.00 (bet365) | 16% |
| Both teams to score | 1.75 (bet365) | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 (bet365) | 84% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 (bet365) | 62% |
We project Juventus to score 2.21 goals to Rennes' 1.01, with 20 total shots to 9 and 6.9 shots on target to 3.3. Our prediction is Juventus 2-1 Rennes, with 2-0 almost as likely and a draw in play at 1-1. Both teams to score is 1.75 at bet365 and over 2.5 goals is 1.67, and our model rates those at 57% and 62%, with a 36% chance of a Juventus clean sheet.