Real Madrid welcome RB Leipzig to the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu on Wednesday 21 October, kick-off 8pm UK, with two wins from two in the Champions League league stage and a side that has scored three goals a game in it. Leipzig arrive 21st of 36 after a heavy 6-1 defeat at Bayern on Saturday, and both of Madrid's European games have seen both teams score.
Our model has Madrid winning at 69%, with the draw at 17% and a Leipzig win at 14%.
Real Madrid sit 8th in the league-stage table on 6 points, with 6 goals scored and 4 conceded from their two games. The latest was a wild 4-3 win away at Roma on 14 October, and they followed it with a 4-1 home win over Sevilla in La Liga on Sunday. Before that came a 1-0 win against Villarreal, and the only recent defeat was 2-1 at Atlético on 20 September. They have won eight of their last ten in all competitions.
Madrid average 3 goals a game in the competition and 8 shots on target. Both teams have scored in both of their games and each has gone over 2.5 goals. They have conceded four in two.
RB Leipzig are 21st with 3 points, from a 1-0 home win over PSV and a defeat. Their form is mixed: a 6-0 win over Frankfurt on 10 October and a 5-0 against Hamburg sit alongside Saturday's 6-1 loss at Bayern and a 2-0 defeat at Leverkusen. They have kept a clean sheet in half their Champions League games and scored two in two.
Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Dumfries, Rüdiger, Konaté, Cucurella; Tchouaméni, Valverde; Bellingham, Diomande; Vinicius Junior, Mbappé
RB Leipzig possible starting lineup:
Vandevoordt; Baku, Orbán, Lukeba, Raum; El Aynaoui, Banzuzi; Nusa, Gruda, Rômulo; Nkunku
Ibrahima Konaté has committed a foul in each of his last five games, and a foul is 1.25 at bet365.
Antonio Rüdiger has had a shot in four of his last five and is 1.50 at bet365 to have one.
Brajan Gruda has had ten shots across his last five games and at least one in four of them. He is 1.22 at bet365 for a shot.
Willi Orbán is the foul-count angle on the Leipzig side. The model has him fourth likeliest for a foul in the match and he is 1.53 for one and 3.50 for two or more.
We back Real Madrid to win at 1.25 with bet365, at the Bernabéu with an 8pm UK kick-off. Leipzig are 10.00 at midnite and the draw is 7.00 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 1.25 (bet365) | 69% |
| Draw | 7.00 (bet365) | 17% |
| RB Leipzig win | 10.00 (midnite) | 14% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (ladbrokes) | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.22 (bet365) | 73% |
We predict a 2-1 home win. Both teams to score is a 64% chance, and Madrid are projected at 2.62 goals against 1.15 for Leipzig. The model puts over 2.5 goals at 73%, and gives Madrid a 32% chance of a clean sheet. A draw is in play.
A bet builder of Konaté for a foul, Rüdiger for a shot, Gruda for a shot and Dumfries for two or more tackles comes to 2.97.