Aston Villa host Viking at Villa Park on Wednesday 21 October, kick-off 8pm UK, in the Champions League league stage. Villa arrive 3rd in the table with two wins from two and nine goals scored. Viking are 27th of 36 after a draw and a defeat, and they have not stopped scoring or conceding.
Villa are 1.22 with bet365 to win, Viking are 12.00 and the draw is 7.00. Our model has Villa winning this one, and the goals at both ends are where the match gets interesting.
Aston Villa are 3rd in the Champions League table with 6 points from 2 games and a goal record of 9 for and 2 against. Last time out in Europe they beat Fenerbahçe 6-0 at home, and three days later they won 1-0 at Newcastle. Before that came a 2-2 draw with Brentford and a 3-2 win at Spurs. Four wins and a draw from five, and five wins in their last ten.
In this competition Villa average 4.5 goals a game, the 2nd most of any team, and 10 shots on target a game, also the 2nd most. They have kept a clean sheet in half their games, and both of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals. Their shots on target numbers are a big part of why the model likes them.
Viking sit 27th with 1 point and a goal difference of minus 2. They drew 3-3 with Bayern on matchday two, and then beat Fredrikstad 3-2 in the league. Before that they won 2-0 at Brann, and put three past Lillestrøm and eight past Kristiansund.
Both of Viking's Champions League games have had goals at both ends, and they are yet to keep a clean sheet, conceding six in two.
Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Suzuki; Cash, Lindelöf, Torres, Bogarde; Kamara, Barkley; Mbaye, McGinn, Manzambi; Jackson
Viking possible starting lineup:
Østbø; Heggheim, Stensness, Falchener, Haugen; Bjørdal, Askildsen, Bell; Tripic, Botheim, Christiansen
Johan Manzambi has had at least one shot on target in each of his last five games, averaging 1.4 a game over the sample, and he is 1.20 at bet365 for one or more.
John McGinn has made at least one tackle in each of his last five, 10 in total, and 1.30 is on offer for him to do it again.
Erik Botheim has had a shot in each of his last five games, 17 in total with a high of seven, and one or more is 1.20 at bet365.
Peter Christiansen has also had a shot in each of his last five, 13 in all, never fewer than two in a game. Christiansen is 1.20 for one or more at bet365.
Gianni Stensness is the foul angle: our model ranks him the likeliest player in the match to commit two or more fouls, and 3.25 is available, with 1.50 for one or more.
We back Aston Villa to win, and bet365 have them at 1.22. Our model gives them a 71% chance, with the draw at 17% and Viking at 12%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to win | 1.22 (bet365) | 71% |
| Draw | 7.00 (Coral) | 17% |
| Viking to win | 12.00 (bet365) | 12% |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 (Ladbrokes) | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.29 (bet365) | 69% |
We expect Villa to score around 2.56 and Viking around 1, which makes 2-1 the likeliest scoreline at 9%, level with 2-0, while 3-1 and 3-0 both sit near 8%. A Villa win by two or more is the broad shape of it, but Viking have scored in both their Champions League games, and we give both teams to score a 59% chance.
Prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Viking