Club Brugge and Lens meet at the Jan Breydelstadion on Wednesday 21 October, kick-off 8pm UK, with both clubs on 3 points from their first two Champions League league-stage games. Brugge sit 16th and Lens 19th in the table. Both of Brugge's European matches so far have produced five goals or more, and Lens have shipped four in two.
Club Brugge have been winning most things at home and on the road. They have won eight of their last ten in all competitions, and their latest result was a wild 4-3 win away at Inter on 13 October. Before that came a 4-1 win at La Louvière, plus home wins over Genk (3-0) and Antwerp (3-1). Their only recent loss was 2-3 at home to Villa on matchday one.
Brugge score and concede in Europe: they have scored 3 and conceded 3 per game, and both teams have scored in 100% of their matches so far. They average 7.5 shots on target a game and have not kept a clean sheet yet.
Lens come in with a mixed set of results. They won 3-1 at Troyes on 17 October, but lost 0-2 at home to Sporting in the Champions League four days earlier. Before that they beat Lyon 2-1 at home, and the defeat at Monaco and a 2-2 draw at Le Mans came in September. Of their last ten matches they have won five and lost four.
Lens win 7.5 corners a game, commit 8 fouls a game and score 1.5 goals a game, and like Brugge they are yet to keep a clean sheet.
Club Brugge possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Sabbe, Spileers, Mechele, Seys; Potts, Vetlesen, Vanaken; Forbs, Tresoldi, Virgili
Lens possible starting lineup:
Risser; Antonio, Baidoo, Todibo, Udol; Abdulhamid, Haidara, Cuisance; Thauvin, Ivanović, Édouard
Nicolò Tresoldi has had at least three shots in each of his last five games, averaging 4.4, and is 1.53 at bet365 to do it again. Carlos Forbs has managed two or more shots in each of his last five, and the same 1.53 is on offer at bet365 for two or more.
Jan Virgili has had a shot on target in four of his last five games and is 1.50 at bet365 to get one here. For Lens, Franjo Ivanović has made a tackle in four of his last five and is 1.40 at bet365 to make one.
We back Club Brugge to win at 2.00 with bet365, and we give them a 48% chance. The four angles above combine at 4.92 as a bet builder: Forbs 2+ shots, Tresoldi 3+ shots, Virgili 1+ shot on target and Ivanović a tackle.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge to win | 2.00 (bet365) | 48% |
| Draw | 4.20 (bet365) | 23% |
| Lens to win | 3.25 (Ladbrokes) | 29% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 (bet365) | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 (Ladbrokes) | 68% |
We project 1.99 goals for Brugge and 1.52 for Lens. 1-1 is the likeliest score, though we make Brugge more likely to win, and a draw is in play. Our prediction is Club Brugge 1-1 Lens, with 2-1 to the hosts only just behind it.
Both teams to score has landed in both of Brugge's Champions League games, and our model makes it a 68% chance here.