Levante welcome Athletic Club to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia on Wednesday 21 October, with kick-off at 7pm UK. It is a La Liga meeting between the league's best defensive record and a home side that has leaked goals all season.
Athletic have conceded just 6 in 7 league games, the fewest in the division, and have kept a clean sheet in 63% of them, the highest rate in La Liga. Levante, in 17th place with 7 points from 8, have shipped 16 goals, but they have also scored 12, so goals are rarely absent when they play.
Levante have not lost in their last two, but it has been a run of draws rather than wins. They drew 1-1 at Deportivo on 16 October and shared six goals in a 3-3 home draw with Sevilla four days earlier. Before that came a 3-1 defeat at Villarreal and a 2-4 loss to Barcelona at home. They have won once in eight, drawn four and lost three.
Per game, Levante score 1.5 goals, the 7th most in the league, and concede 2, the 4th most. Both teams have scored in 63% of their matches and the same share have gone over 2.5 goals.
Athletic have drawn their last three, all without conceding: 0-0 at Valencia, 0-0 at Rayo and 0-0 with Alaves at home. Before that came a 1-1 with Elche and a 3-0 win over Atlético. They sit 11th on 9 points, with 2 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats.
The flip side of that defence is a quiet attack. Athletic score 0.88 per game, the 4th fewest in the division, and just 25% of their games have seen both sides score, the lowest rate in La Liga. Only 25% of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals either.
Levante possible starting lineup:
Ryan; Pérez Gómez, Dela, Ndukwe, Sánchez; Rey, Olasagasti, Bardeli; Cortés, Romero, Fernández
Athletic Club possible starting lineup:
Simón; Louis Jean, Laporte, Paredes, Berchiche; Ruiz de Galarreta, Jauregizar; Navarro, Sancet, Berenguer; Sannadi
Oihan Sancet has had two or more shots in six straight games, averaging 2.8, and he is 1.36 at bet365 to make it seven. He has had between two and four shots in each of his last five.
Thiago Fernández has had at least one shot in six straight games, 1.8 per game. He is 1.14 at bet365 to extend the run.
Manu Sánchez has made two or more tackles in five straight games and averages 5.6. He is 1.29 at bet365 for two or more again.
Mikel Jauregizar has made a tackle in each of his last six, averaging 2 per game, and Robert Navarro has had a shot in five in a row at 2 per game, priced at 1.11 with Ladbrokes.
We back Athletic Club narrowly, and the best price on them is 2.15 at bet365. The interest is in the player markets: Sancet's shot run, Sánchez's tackles and Navarro, who has had a shot on target in four of his last five and is 1.70 at Ladbrokes and Coral.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Levante win | 3.50 (Coral) | 34% |
| Draw | 3.50 (bet365) | 28% |
| Athletic Club win | 2.15 (bet365) | 38% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (Midnite) | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 (Midnite) | 76% |
We predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest single score, though we make Athletic Club slightly more likely to win the game than Levante. Our model has Levante on 1.29 goals and Athletic on 1.38, with both teams to score at 55%.