Villarreal host Napoli at the Estadio de la Cerámica on Tuesday 13 October, with kick-off at 8pm UK. Both clubs are pointless after one Champions League League Stage game, and neither can afford a second defeat. Villarreal sit 21st of 36 after losing 3-2 at Dortmund, while Napoli are 28th after a 1-0 home defeat to Arsenal in which they never got a goal.
The shape of the two openers could hardly differ. Villarreal's game was a goal-fest, and Napoli's was a closed door at both ends. That contrast gives this tie its interest, and our model leans very slightly towards the home side.
Villarreal's Champions League start was an open game. They scored twice and conceded three at Dortmund, and both teams to score and over 2.5 goals each sit at 100% for them so far. They have also taken 7 corners a game, the 8th most. Their shots on target are the 19th most in the competition.
Domestic form has been mixed. Villarreal lost 1-0 at Real Madrid on Saturday, but before that they beat Levante 3-1 at home and won 3-1 at Málaga. They lost 1-2 to Betis at home in mid-September.
Napoli have the opposite problem in Europe. They scored nothing against Arsenal and conceded only one.
In Serie A they have recovered well: Napoli won 3-0 against Frosinone on Saturday, drew 1-1 at Fiorentina and beat Bologna 1-0 after the Arsenal defeat, and they are unbeaten since.
Villarreal possible starting lineup:
Gulácsi; Mouriño, Veiga, Navarro, Cardona; Comesaña, Gueye, Saliba; Moleiro, Mikautadze, Oluwaseyi
Napoli possible starting lineup:
Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Marín, Spinazzola; Lobotka, Gilmour, De Bruyne; Politano, Højlund, Lang
Rasmus Højlund leads Napoli's line and has had at least two shots in each of his last five games, with 5 in one of them. He averages 2.8 shots a game over that run and is 1.33 at bet365 to take two or more here.
Rafa Marín has made at least one tackle in each of his last five games and averages 2.4, topping out at 3 in three of them. The model also rates him likely to commit two or more fouls, at 2.50.
Amir Rrahmani is a more adventurous pick. The model rates two or more shots from the Napoli defender as likelier than the 6.00 price suggests, and the same goes for one or more shot on target at 5.50.
Tani Oluwaseyi has made a tackle in each of his last five games for Villarreal and averages 2 a game. He is 1.53 at bet365 to make at least one.
Santi Comesaña has committed at least one foul in each of his last five matches, with 3 in the latest. He is 1.22 at bet365 to commit another.
We back Villarreal, narrowly, at 2.15 with bet365. Napoli are 3.20 with bet365 and the draw is 3.75 with Midnite.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal win | 2.15 (bet365) | 40% |
| Draw | 3.75 (Midnite) | 26% |
| Napoli win | 3.20 (bet365) | 35% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (Midnite) | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 56% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 12%, though we make Villarreal the more likely winner. Villarreal's 1.52 projected goals against Napoli's 1.41 point to an open game, and 2-1 to the home side is next on the list.
Both sides are projected to take around 4 or 5 shots on target, so goals at both ends are in play. Villarreal's open Dortmund game and Napoli's blank against Arsenal pull in different directions, which leaves the prediction close.