Updated 29 October 2026.
Elversberg and FSV Mainz 05 meet at the URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde on Friday 30 October, kick-off 19:30 UK, separated by a single place in the Bundesliga table. The hosts are 8th and the visitors 7th, both on 10 points from seven games. Elversberg have scored 12 and conceded 15, Mainz 16 and 13. Our model expects both teams to score, and it gives Mainz the better chance of taking the points at 43%.
Elversberg have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 3, scoring 12 and conceding 15. They were beaten 4-0 at RB Leipzig last time out, a week after a 4-3 home win over Augsburg, and they have lost three of their last five. Before that came a 1-0 defeat at U Berlin, a goalless draw at Schalke and a 2-1 home loss to Bayern.
At the back they concede 2.14 a game, the 5th most in the division. They also create little: 4.14 shots on target a game is the 5th fewest, and their 4 corners a game are the 5th fewest. They do foul, though: 12.57 a game is the 4th most in the league.
Mainz have the same record, 3 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats, but with 16 scored and 13 conceded. They arrive on the back of a 3-2 home defeat to Bremen, a week after a 1-0 win at Schalke. Before that came a 4-3 home loss to Leverkusen and a 4-3 win at Gladbach, so they have lost three of their last five. They've scored 2.29 a game, the 4th most in the Bundesliga, and keep a clean sheet in 43% of games, the 3rd highest rate. Their 6.29 shots on target a game is the 5th most.
Elversberg possible starting lineup:
Kristof; Sirch, Rohr, Keidel, Günther; Pinckert, Poręba, Schmahl; Krattenmacher, Petkov, Mokwa
FSV Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Schwolow; da Costa, Posch, Potulski, Mwene; Sano, Amiri, Lee; Caci, Tietz, Becker
Phillip Tietz has had at least three shots in seven straight games for Mainz, averaging 4.1, and has also put a shot on target in each of those seven. He is 1.44 at bet365 for a shot on target.
Łukasz Poręba has committed at least one foul in seven straight games for Elversberg, at 1.7 a game, and is 1.40 at Midnite for a foul. On the other side, Stefan Posch has fouled in six in a row and is also 1.40 at Midnite.
For tackles, Phillipp Mwene has made at least one tackle in seven straight games, averaging 2, while Elversberg's Lukas Petkov has done the same across seven games, at 3 a game. Maximilian Rohr has fouled in three straight games and is 1.80 at bet365 for a foul.
We lean towards Mainz, who are 2.10 at bet365 to win, and our model gives them a 43% chance. Elversberg are 3.20 with the same firm and the draw is 3.90 with Midnite, while 1-1 is our single likeliest scoreline.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Elversberg win | 3.20 (bet365) | 34% |
| Draw | 3.90 (Midnite) | 23% |
| Mainz win | 2.10 (bet365) | 43% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 (Ladbrokes) | 70% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.50 (bet365) | 70% |
Our projection is 1.69 goals for Elversberg and 1.93 for Mainz, and we predict a 1-1 draw as the likeliest single score, though we make Mainz more likely to win at 43%. Both teams to score is 70%, with Elversberg conceding the 5th most goals a game in the league and Mainz scoring the 4th most, and over 2.5 goals is also 70%.
Elversberg host Mainz in the Bundesliga 2026/27 on Friday 30 October 2026, with kick-off at 19:30 UK at the URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde. Both clubs have played seven league games so far this season.
We predict a 1-1 draw for Elversberg vs Mainz in the Bundesliga 2026/27, the likeliest single scoreline, though our model makes Mainz the most likely winner at 43%, with Elversberg on 34% and the draw on 23%.
Mainz are favourites for Elversberg vs Mainz in the Bundesliga 2026/27, with our model giving them a 43% chance against 34% for Elversberg and 23% for the draw. Mainz are 7th in the table, one place above Elversberg, on the same 10 points.
Our model gives both teams to score a 70% chance in Elversberg vs Mainz in the Bundesliga 2026/27. Elversberg concede 2.14 goals a game, the 5th most in the league, and Mainz score 2.29 a game, the 4th most.
Elversberg are 8th and Mainz 7th in the Bundesliga 2026/27 table ahead of their meeting on 30 October, both on 10 points after seven games. Elversberg have scored 12 and conceded 15, while Mainz have scored 16 and conceded 13.
Mainz's Phillip Tietz is in the best shooting form for Elversberg vs Mainz in the Bundesliga 2026/27, with at least three shots in 7 straight games, averaging 4.1, and a shot on target in each of them.
For the 19:30 UK kick-off on 30 October 2026, Elversberg's possible starting lineup against Mainz in the Bundesliga 2026/27 is Kristof; Sirch, Rohr, Keidel, Günther; Pinckert, Poręba, Schmahl; Krattenmacher, Petkov, Mokwa.