Updated 29 October 2026
Corinthians host Mirassol at the Arena Corinthians on Friday 30 October, kicking off at 23:00 UK time. The hosts are 18th in the Campeonato Brasileiro table on 33 points from 32 games. Mirassol are 15th on 37 points, so the visitors arrive with a four-point cushion over a club that has lost eight of its last ten league matches.
Our model makes Corinthians the likelier winners at 47% to 25%, and 1-1 the likeliest single score.
Corinthians have won 8, drawn 9 and lost 15, scoring 34 and conceding 42. Their last five league games brought a 3-2 defeat at Vasco on 24 October, a 1-1 draw with Vitória at home, a 4-1 loss at Palmeiras, a 2-1 defeat at Internacional and a 3-1 home loss to Fluminense. They have not won in their last ten league games, with two draws and eight defeats.
Corinthians score 1.06 goals per game, the 2nd fewest in the division, and their shots on target average of 3.88 is the 5th fewest. At the back they have kept clean sheets in 31% of games, the 4th highest rate, though they have conceded in each of their last five.
Mirassol have 9 wins, 10 draws and 13 defeats, with 37 scored and 45 conceded. In their last ten league games they have won three, drawn five and lost two. They beat Botafogo 2-0 in September, drew 1-1 at Bragantino, lost 1-0 at Bahia, then beat Internacional 2-0 and drew 1-1 with São Paulo last time out. That is one defeat in five.
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in only 9% of games, the 2nd lowest rate in the league, and both teams have scored in 66% of their matches, the 5th highest. They average 4.47 shots on target, ahead of Corinthians, and score 1.16 goals per game, the 7th fewest, against 1.06 for the hosts.
Corinthians possible starting lineup:
Hugo Souza; Matheuzinho, André Ramalho, Gustavo Henrique, Angileri; Breno Bidon, André Luiz Santos Dias, Dieguinho; Garro, Matheus Bidu, Yuri Alberto
Mirassol possible starting lineup:
Walter; Igor Formiga, João Victor, Reinaldo, Willian Machado; Denilson, Neto Moura, Alesson; Eduardo, Edson Carioca, Bruno Santos
Yuri Alberto has had a shot on target in five straight league games and at least three shots in each of his last four, averaging 3.3 over that run. A shot on target is 1.22 at Midnite.
Fabrizio Angileri has made two or more tackles in five in a row, averaging 3.2 over that spell, and 2+ tackles is 1.62 at bet365. Matheuzinho has made 2+ tackles in four straight games and is 1.30 at bet365.
Rodrigo Garro has made a tackle in four consecutive games and is 1.40 at bet365 for another.
For Mirassol, Igor Formiga has made a tackle in 16 straight games, averaging 2.6 over that run.
Our model makes Corinthians 47% to win, with the draw at 28% and Mirassol at 25%, and the best price on the hosts is 1.76 at bet365. Both teams to score is 1.91 at bet365, and we put it at 51%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Corinthians win | 1.76 (bet365) | 47% |
| Draw | 3.70 (Ladbrokes) | 28% |
| Mirassol win | 4.60 (Coral) | 25% |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 (bet365) | 51% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 (Midnite) | 73% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 (bet365) | 46% |
We expect 1.51 goals from Corinthians and 1.02 from Mirassol. The most likely score is 1-1 at 13.5%, though we make Corinthians 47% to win against 25% for Mirassol. We predict a 1-1 draw.
Matheus Bidu has had a shot in each of his last five games, averaging 1.8, and 1+ shots is 1.28 at Ladbrokes and Coral.
Corinthians vs Mirassol in the 2026/27 Campeonato Brasileiro kicks off at 23:00 UK time on Friday 30 October 2026 at the Arena Corinthians. Corinthians are 18th on 33 points after 32 games and Mirassol are 15th on 37 points.
We predict a 1-1 draw for Corinthians vs Mirassol in the 2026/27 Campeonato Brasileiro, the likeliest single score at 13.5%. We make Corinthians more likely to win the match, at 47% against 25% for Mirassol and 28% for the draw.
Corinthians are the favourites to win Corinthians vs Mirassol in the 2026/27 Campeonato Brasileiro, with our model giving them a 47% chance against 25% for Mirassol and 28% for a draw. The bookmakers also make the hosts the favourites.
We put both teams to score at 51% for Corinthians vs Mirassol in the 2026/27 Campeonato Brasileiro. Both teams have scored in 66% of Mirassol's league games, the 5th highest rate in the league, and we give over 2.5 goals a 46% chance.
Before Corinthians vs Mirassol in the 2026/27 Campeonato Brasileiro, Corinthians are 18th with 33 points from 32 games and Mirassol are 15th with 37 points from 32 games, a gap of 4 points.
For Corinthians vs Mirassol in the 2026/27 Campeonato Brasileiro, Yuri Alberto has had a shot on target in 5 straight league games, Angileri has made 2+ tackles in 5 straight and Garro has made a tackle in 4 straight.
For the 23:00 UK kick-off of Corinthians vs Mirassol in the 2026/27 Campeonato Brasileiro on 30 October 2026, Corinthians' possible starting lineup is Hugo Souza; Matheuzinho, André Ramalho, Gustavo Henrique, Angileri; Breno Bidon, André Luiz Santos Dias, Dieguinho; Garro, Matheus Bidu, Yuri Alberto. Mirassol's possible starting lineup is Walter; Igor Formiga, João Victor, Reinaldo, Willian Machado; Denilson, Neto Moura, Alesson; Eduardo, Edson Carioca, Bruno Santos.