Updated 29 October 2026
Grêmio host Athletico PR at the Arena do Grêmio in the Campeonato Brasileiro on Friday 30 October, with kick-off at 00:30 UK. Grêmio sit 17th on 34 points and Athletico PR are 4th on 54, 20 points clear of them, with 32 games played by each. Our model makes it close: 1-1 is the likeliest single score, and Athletico PR are only slightly ahead on win chance at 37% to 34%.
Grêmio have taken six points from their last five league games, with one win, three draws and a defeat. Athletico PR have won three of their last ten and arrive without a win in their last two.
Grêmio average 1.09 goals per game, the 5th fewest in the league, and they have scored 35 and conceded 44 across 32 matches. They have just 8 wins, 10 draws and 14 defeats, and they sit 17th in the table. Their shots on target average of 3.78 is the 3rd fewest and their 4.47 corners per game are the 4th fewest.
Grêmio won 1-0 at Coritiba on 26 October, a result that followed a 2-4 home defeat to Cruzeiro. Before that came a 1-1 draw with Internacional, a 1-1 at Remo and a goalless draw with Palmeiras. That makes three draws in their last five league games.
Athletico PR have 15 wins, 9 draws and 8 defeats, with 50 goals scored and 38 conceded. They score 1.56 a game, the 5th most in the division, and concede 1.19, the 5th fewest. They also hold the 8th most shots on target at 5.03 per game.
On 24 October they drew 1-1 at Vitória, and a week earlier they lost 0-2 at home to Palmeiras. The high point was a 4-1 win at Chapecoense on 12 October.
Both sides sit on a 59% both-teams-to-score rate, the 10th highest in the league. Athletico go over 2.5 goals in 50% of their games, the 9th highest, against 44% for Grêmio, the 5th lowest.
Grêmio possible starting lineup:
Weverton; Wallace, Gustavo Martins, Balbuena, João Pedro; Noriega, Villasanti, Marlon; Enamorado, Amuzu, Carlos Vinícius
Athletico PR possible starting lineup:
Mycael; Arthur Dias, Esquivel, Aguirre; Portilla, Luiz Gustavo, Benavídez; Mendoza, João Cruz, Leozinho; Viveros
Wallace has made at least one tackle in ten straight games for Grêmio, averaging 1.5, and Ladbrokes make him 1.25 to do it again. His team-mate Mathías Villasanti has a tackle in each of his last eight and averages 1.8.
Erick Noriega has committed at least two fouls in seven straight games and averages 3.0 fouls over that run. Midnite make him 1.60 to go again.
For Athletico, Stiven Mendoza has had a shot in seven straight games and averages 1.9, with a price of 1.22 at bet365. Luiz Gustavo has had two or more shots in four straight games and is 2.37 at Ladbrokes to do it again. Up front, Kevin Viveros has picked up two or more fouls in five straight and is 1.44 at Midnite.
Our model has Athletico PR at 37% to win, Grêmio at 34% and the draw at 29%, and the best price on the visitors is 3.00 at bet365. 1-1 is the likeliest single score.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Grêmio to win | 2.40 (Ladbrokes) | 34% |
| Draw | 3.40 (bet365) | 29% |
| Athletico PR to win | 3.00 (bet365) | 37% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 (Midnite) | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (Coral) | 47% |
We predict a 1-1 draw. It is the likeliest score at 14%, and we still make Athletico slightly more likely to win the match than Grêmio. Our model projects 1.23 goals for Grêmio and 1.31 for Athletico, and gives over 1.5 goals a 73% chance, with the best price on that at 1.29 with bet365.
Athletico's Gastón Américo Benavídez has made at least one tackle in each of his last five games, averaging 2.2, and Ladbrokes and Coral both make him 1.25 to do it again.
Grêmio vs Athletico PR in the 2026/27 Campeonato Brasileiro kicks off at 00:30 UK time on Friday 30 October 2026 at the Arena do Grêmio. Grêmio are 17th on 34 points after 32 games and Athletico PR are 4th on 54 points.
We predict a 1-1 draw for Grêmio vs Athletico PR in the 2026/27 Campeonato Brasileiro, the likeliest single score at 14%. Athletico PR are slightly more likely to win the match, at 37% against 34% for Grêmio and 29% for the draw.
Athletico PR are our slight favourites to win Grêmio vs Athletico PR in the 2026/27 Campeonato Brasileiro, at 37% against 34% for Grêmio and 29% for the draw. The bookmakers have Grêmio as the favourites at home.
We give both teams a 53% chance to score in Grêmio vs Athletico PR in the 2026/27 Campeonato Brasileiro. Both sides have a 59% both-teams-to-score rate this season, and we give over 2.5 goals a 47% chance.
Before Grêmio vs Athletico PR in the 2026/27 Campeonato Brasileiro, Athletico PR are 4th with 54 points from 32 games and Grêmio are 17th with 34 points from 32 games, a gap of 20 points.
For Grêmio vs Athletico PR in the 2026/27 Campeonato Brasileiro, Wallace has made a tackle in 10 straight games for Grêmio and Stiven Mendoza has had a shot in 7 straight games for Athletico PR. Erick Noriega has committed two or more fouls in 7 straight games.
For the 00:30 UK kick-off of Grêmio vs Athletico PR in the 2026/27 Campeonato Brasileiro on 30 October 2026, Grêmio's possible starting lineup is Weverton; Wallace, Gustavo Martins, Balbuena, João Pedro; Noriega, Villasanti, Marlon; Enamorado, Amuzu, Carlos Vinícius. Athletico PR's possible starting lineup is Mycael; Arthur Dias, Esquivel, Aguirre; Portilla, Luiz Gustavo, Benavídez; Mendoza, João Cruz, Leozinho; Viveros.