Burnley host Derby County at 15:00 UK on Saturday 19 September at Turf Moor, carrying the most striking single statistic in the Championship: every match Burnley have played this season has produced goals at both ends. One hundred per cent, the only side in the division with a perfect record either way.
It is not a compliment. They also concede 2.29 goals a game, the worst figure of any team in the Championship.
Burnley have not kept a clean sheet all season and have lost three of their last five - 3-1 at Swansea, 2-1 at home to Bristol City and 4-1 at Norwich - with 1-1 draws against Wrexham and Middlesbrough in between. They score 1.14 a game, fourteenth in the division, and concede more than twice that. Seventy-one per cent of their matches have gone past two and a half goals.
Derby County arrive worse off. They have scored in only two of their last five, with 0-1, 0-3 and 0-3 among the results, and rank twenty-first of twenty-four for goals scored at 0.86 a game. The complication for anyone reading that as a quiet afternoon is that 71 per cent of Derby's matches have also cleared two and a half goals - because when they fail to score they tend to concede two or three. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 1.79 goals for Burnley and 1.08 for Derby County. Both teams to score is rated at 56 per cent at 8/11, and over 2.5 goals at 55 per cent at 4/5 - a price that has shortened through the week, having been 10/11 when our EFL best bets column took it on Friday.
The result market is the one to leave alone. Burnley at 8/11 are 53 per cent against a price implying 57, and Derby at 16/5 are 22 against an implied 24. Both sit below their prices, which is what usually happens when a poor home side plays a poor away side and the market prices the venue.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Stephen Martin, averaging 4.5 yellow cards and 24 fouls a game this season.
Alex Mowatt carries the longest streak in the fixture, having committed at least one foul in six straight games for Derby County. Largie Ramazani and Aaron Ramsey have both fouled in four in a row for Burnley, and Ramazani has also had two or more shots in each of his last three - the most active attacking line in the match on either side.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Burnley are the stronger team, at home, against opponents who have scored twice in five matches. They are also the leakiest defence in the Championship and have never once kept the other side out.
The read is a Burnley win in a match with goals in it. The goals half of that is the more confident half: both clubs have seen 71 per cent of their matches clear two and a half, and Burnley's record of goals at both ends is unbroken at seven from seven.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.