Swansea City top the Championship and have the division's meanest defence. They host Norwich City at the Swansea.com Stadium on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 12:30 UK, and the visitors arrive with a very different profile: the 4th most goals scored in the league and the 2nd most conceded.
Swansea have 17 points from eight games, with five wins, two draws and one defeat. Norwich sit 17th on 9 points after losing five of their eight, and they have scored at least three in four of those matches. Something here is likely to give, and the visitors' record suggests goals at both ends.
Swansea's defence is the foundation of their season. They have conceded just 6 goals in eight games, the fewest in the Championship, and they have kept a clean sheet in half of their matches, the highest rate in the division. Their last five, newest first: a 2-1 win at Lincoln, a 3-1 home win over Burnley, a 3-1 defeat at Southampton, a goalless draw with Wrexham and a 2-0 win over Watford.
They also create plenty, with 5 shots on target per game, the 6th most in the league. They are not a foul-heavy side either: 9.5 fouls per game is the 3rd fewest.
Norwich are the opposite kind of team. They average 2 goals a game, the 4th most in the league, and 5.5 shots on target per game is the 3rd most. But they concede 2.13 a game and have yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Their last five, newest first, read: a 4-3 home defeat to Bolton, a 5-0 Carabao Cup loss at Manchester City, a 4-3 defeat at Middlesbrough, a 2-1 home win over Birmingham and a 3-1 win at Sheffield United. Both teams have scored in 75% of their games, the 6th highest rate in the league, and 88% have gone over 2.5 goals, the highest in the division.
Swansea City possible starting lineup:
Vigouroux; Welsh, Cabango, Tymon; Stamenić, Franco, Widell; Just, Yeo, Idah
Norwich City possible starting lineup:
Kovačević; Stacey, Darling, McConville, Chrisene; McLean, Mattsson; Brooks, Musaba, Makama, Schwartau
Andre Brooks has had at least one shot in all eight Norwich games, averaging 2.5 a match, and he is 1.11 at Ladbrokes to make it nine. Team-mate Oscar Schwartau has a shot in each of his last five and is 1.18 at bet365 to add another.
For Swansea, Melker Widell has had a shot in six straight games and is 1.17 at bet365. Moussa Yeo has made at least one tackle in all eight games, averaging 3 a match, and has committed a foul in each of his last five.
On the Norwich back line, Ruairi McConville has had a shot in four straight games and is 2.05 at Ladbrokes to continue that, while right-back Jack Stacey has fouled in four in a row and is 1.40 at Midnite.
We back Swansea to win at 2.40 with Ladbrokes. Norwich are 2.82 at bet365 and the draw is 3.60 at Ladbrokes. In the goals markets, both teams to score is 1.62 at Midnite and over 2.5 goals is 1.73 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Swansea City win | 2.40 (Ladbrokes) | 42% |
| Draw | 3.60 (Ladbrokes) | 27% |
| Norwich City win | 2.82 (bet365) | 31% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (Midnite) | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | 54% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 12.5%, though we make Swansea the most likely winners overall. With Swansea projected at 1.55 goals and Norwich at 1.30, a draw is in play, and both sides finding the net is the pick of the team markets.
Norwich's shooting runs add to the case for goals: Brooks and Schwartau have found a shot in every recent game, and a defence that has yet to keep a clean sheet is unlikely to shut them out.