West Ham United host Queens Park Rangers at the London Stadium on Friday 9 October, kick-off 20:00, and the Championship's best attack meets its second-meanest defence. West Ham are 2nd on 15 points from 8 and score more than anybody in the division. QPR are 6th on 13, concede 0.88 a game and have drawn their last three. Something gives.
West Ham have scored 2.75 goals a game, the most of any side, and seen over 2.5 goals in 88% of their matches, again the highest of the 24 clubs. The recent run reads 3-0 against Derby, 3-2 at Bolton and 6-0 against Wrexham, with the only blemish a 2-3 Carabao Cup loss to Fulham that still produced five goals. The softness is at the back: 1.38 conceded a game is 8th of 24, and the 2-2 at Millwall ended a run of four straight wins. They are 2nd in the division for shots on target at 5.88 a game.
QPR have reached a similar total by the opposite road. Only one side has conceded fewer, but 1.25 scored a game ranks 14th and half their matches have finished under 2.5. Hence three straight draws - 2-2 with Preston, 1-1 at West Brom and 0-0 at Charlton. The chances are arriving, though: they are 3rd for corners and 4th for shots on target. See the Championship table.
West Ham line up in a 4-4-2, QPR in a 4-2-3-1 with Kamara and Madsen screening the back four.
West Ham United possible starting lineup:
Hermansen; Walker-Peters, Mavropanos, Kilman, Morato; Bowen, Engels, Solomon; Piroe, Castellanos
Queens Park Rangers possible starting lineup:
Adamson, Edwards, Dunne, Mbengue; Madsen, Kamara; Poku, Varane, Scarlett; Burrell
Jarrod Bowen is the headline. He has had 3 or more shots in each of his last 8 games, the longest run of its kind in the Championship, averaging 4 shots a game across it, and Ladbrokes go 1.53 about a ninth. The oddity is Konstantinos Mavropanos, a centre-back with a shot on target in each of his last 5 - the 3rd longest such run in the division - at 2.25. For QPR, Kwame Poku has had 2 or more shots in each of his last 5 at 1.67, averaging 4 a game, which is striking in a side scoring 1.25.
Worth separating what our model likes from what the form book confirms. Mavropanos 1+ shot and Poku 2+ shots are backed by both: we price them above the book and each has landed in all five of the player's last qualifying games. Castellanos 3+ shots at 1.73 is the model's boldest call, 70% against the book's 58%, but he has cleared three shots once in his last five, so take it on the projection or leave it.
| Player | Line | Run | Statz | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowen | 3+ shots | 8 games | - | 1.53 |
| Mavropanos | 1+ SoT | 5 games | - | 2.25 |
| Poku | 2+ shots | 5/5 | 62% | 1.67 |
| Mavropanos | 1+ shot | 5/5 | 81% | 1.30 |
| Castellanos | 3+ shots | 1/5 | 70% | 1.73 |
| Kamara | 1+ foul | 6 games | - | 1.50 |
Live runs for every club are on the Championship streaks board.
West Ham are 1.53 with Coral, the draw 4.80 and QPR 6.00. That implies 65% and our model has the home win at 66%, so the result is priced where we have it and the interest sits in the shots markets above. Over 2.5 at 1.53 and both teams to score at 1.67 are both a shade short of our 63% and 56%. One to avoid: referee Ruebyn Ricardo averages 4.33 yellows, which looks inviting until you notice these are two of the division's cleanest sides - West Ham commit the 5th fewest fouls of 24, QPR the 2nd fewest.
Our model wants West Ham about two times in three. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0, with 2-1 just behind. Say it plainly: 1-1 sits third, and with QPR having drawn their last three that is not one to wave away. But three of the five likeliest scores have QPR blanking, and the clean sheet split is 38% to 10%.
| Scoreline | Chance |
|---|---|
| West Ham 2-0 | 10.1% |
| West Ham 2-1 | 9.8% |
| Draw 1-1 | 9.3% |
| West Ham 1-0 | 8.2% |
| West Ham 3-0 | 7.6% |
QPR's defence is real and should keep this tight for a long spell, but West Ham have scored at least twice in each of their last six and QPR have managed two in a game just twice in their last five. We will take the hosts, and rather by two than by one.
Statz prediction: West Ham United 2-0 Queens Park Rangers. Live numbers on the match page, wider context on the Championship hub and xG table.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds are the best of the five books we price and are subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.