Birmingham City host Preston North End at St. Andrew's Stadium on Tuesday 13 October, with kick-off at 8pm UK. The gap between the sides is wide: Birmingham are 7th in the Championship on 14 points, while Preston are 24th and last on 4.
Preston have lost seven of their nine league games, and their latest defeat was a 0-1 at home to Millwall on Saturday. Birmingham, meanwhile, come into this one on the back of a win.
Birmingham have lost only once in nine, with three wins and five draws, and they sit 7th in the Championship table. Their recent results include Saturday's 1-0 win at West Brom, a 2-2 draw with Middlesbrough at St. Andrew's, a 2-1 loss at Norwich and a 2-1 success at Derby on 12 September.
The hosts have scored 13 and conceded 11. Their goals record is the 10th most in the division at 1.44 a game, and their 1.22 conceded is the 5th fewest. They have also kept a clean sheet in 22% of games, the 8th highest rate, while both teams have scored in 78% of their matches, the 4th highest. Add in 6.33 corners a game, the 4th most, and Birmingham tend to be involved in plenty of action at both ends.
Preston's numbers are bleak. They have taken 4 points, scored 8 and conceded 16. Their shots on target average of 2.89 is the 2nd fewest in the league, and they have scored the 5th fewest goals while conceding the 4th most, at 1.78 a game. They have not kept a clean sheet all season. Their last win was 2-1 against Blackburn on 5 September, and since then they have lost to Watford and Lincoln, drawn 2-2 at QPR and then lost to Millwall.
Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Beadle; Osayi-Samuel, Klarer, Neumann, Cochrane; Iwata, SolÃs; Vicente, Millar, Stansfield; Priske
Preston North End possible starting lineup:
Iversen; Offiah, Storey, Hughes, ValentÃn; Leroy, Thompson, Devine; Vukcevic, Burgzorg, Erabi
Jay Stansfield is the one to start with. He has had at least two shots in seven straight games and a shot on target in five in a row, averaging 2.7 shots a game, which is the 3rd best run in the division. He is 1.20 at Ladbrokes to have 2+ shots and 1.48 for a shot on target.
Tomoki Iwata has had a shot in six straight games and averages 1.8 a game. He is 1.28 at Ladbrokes for a shot and 2.10 for two or more. In defence, Christoph Klarer has committed a foul in six in a row and is 1.44 at Midnite to make it seven.
Carlos Vicente has had a shot in four straight games at three a game, and the model rates him the likeliest player on the pitch to get one. He is 1.06 at bet365. For Preston, Jordan Andrew Thompson has made a tackle in five straight games.
We back Birmingham to win at 1.61 with Ladbrokes, and our model gives them a 61% chance. The draw is 4.20 at Coral, and Preston are 5.50 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham win | 1.61 (Ladbrokes) | 61% |
| Draw | 4.20 (Coral) | 23% |
| Preston win | 5.50 (bet365) | 16% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 (bet365) | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | 54% |
Our model projects 1.94 goals for Birmingham and 0.91 for Preston. The likeliest single score is 1-1, so a draw is in play, though we make Birmingham clear favourites to win it. 2-0 and 1-0 are almost level with it. We predict 1-1, with the hosts the likelier side to take the points.
On goals, over 2.5 is 54% on our numbers and over 1.5 is 79%. Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 40% of our simulations, and with Preston yet to keep one all season, the home win to nil is a reasonable angle.