Burnley and Charlton Athletic meet at Turf Moor on Tuesday 13 October, kick-off 7:45pm, with the hosts arriving in better spirits than the table suggests. Burnley sit 22nd on 7 points from 9 games, but they ended a long winless run at the weekend with a 4-0 win at Watford. Charlton are 12th on 13 points and have drawn four of their nine, with the fewest shots on target per game in the division.
Our model makes Burnley the clear favourites.
Burnley's season has been a long run of near-misses. The Watford result was their first win in ten matches. The 4-0 win at Watford came after a 1-1 draw with Derby at Turf Moor and a 3-1 defeat at Swansea. They have taken one point from the two games before that, a 1-1 draw at Wrexham and a 1-2 home loss to Bristol City.
Burnley's games are full of goals at both ends. Burnley have scored 13 and conceded 17, and both teams have scored in 89% of their games, the highest rate in the Championship. They concede the 3rd most goals per game in the division, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of their matches, the 6th highest rate. Their shots on target sit at 4.11 a game.
Charlton are harder to score against. They have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their games, the 4th highest rate, and concede the 5th fewest goals per game. But their shots on target average of 2.78 is the fewest in the league, and they have scored 8 in 9. Their last five were a 1-1 draw with Bristol City, a 3-1 loss at Cardiff, then goalless draws at home to Portsmouth and QPR, and a 4-0 defeat at Stoke.
Burnley possible starting lineup:
Coudert; Walker, Ahmedhodzic, Igor Julio, Pires; Laurent, Hatate; Bruun Larsen, Edwards, Ramazani; Broja
Charlton Athletic possible starting lineup:
Okonkwo; McNamara, Jones, Koumetio, J. Edwards; Coventry, Skipp; Campbell, Mbick, Leaburn; Grant
Largie Ramazani has had a shot in six straight games for Burnley, averaging two a game over that run, and he is 1.05 at bet365 to have one again. Marcus Edwards has had a shot on target in each of his last five and had two in three of them; the price is 1.40 at bet365.
For Charlton, Conor Coventry has committed a foul in nine straight games and made a tackle in all nine too, at 1.8 fouls a game. He is 1.25 at midnite to foul again. Tyreece Campbell has had a shot in nine in a row, averaging 1.8 a game, and Karlan Grant has had one in each of his last five at 1.14 at bet365. Given how few shots on target Charlton create, those two are the visitors' likeliest route to goal.
We back Burnley to win, and 1.67 at Coral is the best price on them. The draw is 4.00 at Coral and Charlton are 5.50 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 1.67 (Coral) | 58% |
| Draw | 4.00 (Coral) | 25% |
| Charlton win | 5.50 (bet365) | 17% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 (bet365) | 48% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 (Midnite) | 74% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.83 (Ladbrokes) | 49% |
Our model has Burnley scoring 1.77 goals to Charlton's 0.85, and gives the hosts a 43% chance of keeping a clean sheet. We predict a 1-0 Burnley win, with 1-1 almost level on probability, so a draw is in play. Both teams to score is 1.83 at bet365, though Charlton's attack has struggled to create chances all season. For player-market interest, the shot runs for Ramazani and Edwards stand out, and our model rates Largie Ramazani as the likeliest player on the pitch to have a shot.
Referee Anthony Backhouse has averaged 4.5 yellow cards across his four games this season.