Cardiff City host Watford at Cardiff City Stadium on Tuesday 13 October, kick-off 7:45pm UK, and both clubs arrive in the bottom five of the Championship table. Cardiff are 21st on 7 points, Watford 20th on 8, and each side lost on Saturday. Cardiff have the better attacking numbers, which is why the model leans their way.
Cardiff have won once in nine league games, drawing four and losing four, with 11 goals scored and 14 conceded. They went down 2-1 at Blackburn on Saturday, after their one win of the season, a 3-1 home victory over Charlton. Before that came a 1-0 loss at Bolton and a 1-1 draw with Stoke.
The numbers behind those results are better than the table suggests. Cardiff average more shots on target per game than any other side in the division, 6, and take more corners too, 7.67 a game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their games, the 4th highest figure in the league, and they have not kept a clean sheet all season.
Watford have won twice in nine, drawn two and lost five, scoring 7 and conceding 14. Their 4-0 home defeat to Burnley on Saturday was the heaviest of a run of four straight league losses, following 1-0 at Bristol City and a 2-1 home loss to Stoke. Their last win was 2-1 against Preston on 8 September.
Goals are the problem. Watford average 0.78 per game, the 2nd fewest in the division, and just 3.78 shots on target. They also collect cards, 2.56 a game, the 3rd most. John Busby is the referee and has averaged 3.25 yellows across four games this season.
Cardiff City possible starting lineup:
Trott; Ng, Lawlor, Osho, Bagan; Robertson, Moylan, Colwill; Tanner, Ashford, Robinson
Watford possible starting lineup:
Ravaglia; Traoré, Pollock, Mlacic, Coulibaly; Kyprianou, Kayembe, Doumbia; Nabizada, Bravo, Kjerrumgaard
Alex Robertson has had at least one shot in all nine of Cardiff's league games and averages 1.3 a game. He is 1.25 at bet365 to have a shot again.
Ollie Tanner has had two or more shots in each of his last five and averages 3.6 a game, with a high of six. Two or more is 1.33 at bet365.
Jack Moylan has also had a shot in nine straight games, averaging 3.8 a game.
For Watford, Mamadou Doumbia has committed at least one foul in six consecutive games and is 1.29 at Midnite to make it seven. Mattie Pollock has made a tackle in all nine games and is 5.50 for a shot on target.
We back Cardiff, who are 1.70 with Ladbrokes to win, and our model gives them a 50% chance. A bet builder of Robertson to have a shot, Tanner to have two or more shots, Doumbia to commit a foul and Callum Robinson to have a shot on target comes out at around 1.98 combined. Robinson has put a shot on target in four of his last five.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff win | 1.70 (Ladbrokes) | 50% |
| Draw | 4.20 (Ladbrokes) | 25% |
| Watford win | 4.75 (bet365) | 25% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 60% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 (bet365) | 59% |
We predict 1-1, the likeliest single scoreline at 11%, though we make Cardiff more likely to win than Watford, and 2-1 to the hosts is next on the list. A draw is in play, but Cardiff's volume of shots and Watford's struggles at the other end point towards the home side.