Wrexham welcome West Bromwich Albion to the Racecourse Ground on Tuesday 13 October, with kick-off at 7:45pm UK. The hosts sit 15th on 11 points from nine games, while the visitors are 9th on 14, and the clash pairs a side that has not stopped drawing against one that has the division's third-best defence.
Wrexham have drawn five of their nine league games, and West Brom have conceded only nine goals in nine, so a low-scoring evening looks the likeliest outcome.
Wrexham are unbeaten in their last two. They beat Southampton 2-1 at home on 19 September and then drew 1-1 at Derby on Saturday, a result that extended a run of five draws in nine. Before that win came a heavy 6-0 defeat at West Ham, and the rest of the recent run is a 1-1 home draw with Burnley and a goalless draw at Swansea. They have scored 10 and conceded 13, and on a per-game basis their shots on target sit at 3.33, the 5th fewest in the division. At the back they concede 1.44 a game, the 12th most, and both teams have scored in 67% of their matches, the 10th highest rate.
West Brom are 9th with four wins, two draws and three defeats, but come in on the back of two straight losses: a 1-0 home defeat to Birmingham on Saturday and a 1-0 loss at Wolves before it. Before that they drew 1-1 at home to QPR and won 1-0 at Derby and 1-0 at home to Watford. Their goals have been scarce, 10 in nine and 1.11 a game, the 7th fewest, but only two teams have conceded fewer than their 1.00 a game, the 3rd fewest in the division. Just 33% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the lowest rate in the Championship.
In the Championship table the gap is only three points, so a win would move Wrexham level with their visitors.
Wrexham possible starting lineup:
Patterson; Vyner, Worrall, Hyam, Kaboré; Whiteman, O'Brien, Rathbone, Ekomié; O'Hare, Moore
West Bromwich Albion possible starting lineup:
O'Leary; Pereira, Phillips, Mepham, Styles; Diakité, Collyer, Nzingoula; Heggebø, Horn Myhre, Morgan
Callum O'Hare is the main threat for Wrexham. He has had a shot in seven straight games, averaging two a game, and he is 1.09 for a shot at Ladbrokes. He has also had at least two shots in four of his last five, with 12 across them.
Ousmane Diakité has had a shot in eight straight games for West Brom, at 1.4 a game, and is 1.80 at bet365 to make it nine. He has also made at least one tackle in all nine of the visitors' matches.
Callum Styles has the longest tackle run in the competition: at least one in nine straight games, at 3.8 a game. He has also had a shot in three straight at 1.62 with bet365.
Jimmy Morgan has committed a foul in three straight games, averaging two, and is 1.25 at Midnite. On the Wrexham side, Ollie Rathbone has committed a foul in four of his last five at 1.22 with Midnite.
We back Wrexham, who are 2.30 at Ladbrokes to win this one, and our model gives them a 42% chance of victory. The draw is 3.40 at Ladbrokes and West Brom are 3.20 at bet365, with the visitors on 28% in our numbers and the draw on 30%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Wrexham to win | 2.30 (Ladbrokes) | 42% |
| Draw | 3.40 (Ladbrokes) | 30% |
| West Brom to win | 3.20 (bet365) | 28% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 (bet365) | 68% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 (bet365) | 41% |
We make it 1-1, the likeliest single score at 14%, though we make Wrexham the more likely winners overall and 1-0 to the hosts is next on 12%. A draw is in play, and the model has 0-0 on 11%. We project 1.30 goals for Wrexham and 1.02 for West Brom, with 13.18 total shots for the hosts against 10.87 for the visitors.
The player markets are where the interest lies. O'Hare's run of shots and Diakité's eight straight games with a shot give two clear angles, and a bet builder of Diakité 1+ shots, O'Hare 2+ shots, Rathbone 1+ fouls and Morgan 1+ fouls comes out at 2.82 combined.
James Bell takes charge. He has refereed three games this season and averaged 3.33 yellow cards and 18.67 fouls in them.