Updated 5 November 2026.
Derby County host Bolton Wanderers at Pride Park Stadium on Friday 6 November, kick-off 8pm UK. It is a Championship meeting between the division's 23rd and 17th-placed sides, and Derby arrive having lost 4-0 to Norwich on Tuesday. Bolton won 1-0 at Charlton the same day.
Derby sit 23rd of 24 in the Championship table with 7 points from 14 games: one win, four draws and nine defeats. They have scored 11 and conceded 29. They are winless in ten and have lost four of the last five: a 4-1 loss at QPR, then 0-1 at home to Stoke, a 1-1 draw at Sheffield United, a 4-1 defeat at Millwall and then the 4-0 home loss to Norwich. They average 0.79 goals a game, the 2nd fewest in the division, and concede 2.07, the 2nd most.
Bolton are 17th on 17 points, with five wins, two draws and seven defeats, and a goal difference of minus 7. Over their last five they won 3-1 at Wolves, drew 0-0 at Southampton, lost 5-1 at home to Middlesbrough and 3-2 at home to Bristol City, then won 1-0 at Charlton on Tuesday. They have kept a clean sheet in 29% of games, the 5th highest rate in the league, and they put up 4.64 shots on target a game, the 8th most.
Derby commit 12.21 fouls a game, the 4th most in the Championship, and pick up 2.43 cards a game, also the 4th most. Bolton commit 9.79 fouls a game, the 4th fewest.
Derby County possible starting lineup:
Widell Zetterström; Gordon, Johnston, Nyambe, Sanderson; Mowatt, Fraulo, Clark; Bilbija, Meister, Morris
Bolton Wanderers possible starting lineup:
Bonham; Stephenson, Famewo, Forino, Conway; Simons, Rodrigues; Iling-Junior, Ito, Lott; Dalby
Henrik Meister has committed a foul in nine straight games, averaging 2.1 a game over that run, and has had a shot in five in a row. Bet365 offer 1.44 on a foul in this one.
Carlton Morris has had at least one shot in six consecutive games, averaging 2.2 a game, and is 1.07 at bet365 to make it seven.
Ryan Nyambe has made at least one tackle in five straight games, averaging 2.2 a game, with a high of 5 in one of them. A tackle is 1.20 at bet365.
For Bolton, Xavier Simons has made at least one tackle in five straight games, averaging 1.4 a game, and a tackle is 1.20 at bet365.
We make Derby County narrow favourites at 42%, with Bolton on 33% and the draw on 25%. Bet365 have Derby at 2.45, Coral make Bolton 2.75 and Ladbrokes go 3.70 on the draw.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Derby County win | 2.45 (bet365) | 42% |
| Draw | 3.70 (Ladbrokes) | 25% |
| Bolton Wanderers win | 2.75 (Coral) | 33% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 64% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 (bet365) | 83% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | 62% |
We predict 1-1, which is the likeliest single score at 11%, though we make Derby slightly more likely to win. A 2-1 Derby win is next at 9%, then 1-2 at 8%. We project 1.70 goals for Derby and 1.48 for Bolton, and give both teams scoring a 64% chance.
Bolton have conceded 1.86 a game, the 4th most in the Championship, and we project Derby for 1.70 goals. On the player markets, Meister is 1.44 for a foul and Morris 1.07 for a shot, both at bet365, while Bolton's S. Dalby, who has had a shot on target in four of his last five, is 1.80 at bet365.
Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers kicks off at 20:00 UK on Friday 6 November 2026 at Pride Park Stadium. It is a 2026/27 Championship fixture, with Derby County 23rd and Bolton Wanderers 17th.
Our prediction for Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 11%. We still make Derby slightly more likely to win at 42%, with Bolton on 33% and the draw at 25% in this Championship fixture.
Derby County are narrow favourites with a 42% win chance in our model for this Championship game, and 2.45 at bet365. Bolton Wanderers are 33% and 2.75 at Coral, with the draw at 25% and 3.70 at Ladbrokes.
Our model gives both teams to score a 64% chance in Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers, with bet365 at 1.53. Over 2.5 goals is 62% in this Championship fixture, and the projected goals are 1.70 for Derby and 1.48 for Bolton.
Derby County are 23rd in the 2026/27 Championship with 7 points from 14 games, one win and nine defeats. Bolton Wanderers are 17th with 17 points from 14 games, five wins, two draws and seven defeats.
Henrik Meister has committed a foul in 9 straight Championship games this season, averaging 2.1 a game for Derby County. Carlton Morris has had at least one shot in 6 in a row, averaging 2.2 a game.
Derby County's possible XI for this Championship game includes Widell Zetterström in goal, Meister and Morris up front and Mowatt in midfield. Bolton Wanderers' possible XI features Bonham, Simons, Rodrigues and Dalby.