Updated 5 November 2026.
Vitória host Fluminense at the Estádio Manoel Barradas on Friday 6 November, with kick-off at 23:00 UK time in the Campeonato Brasileiro. It pairs the division's third-lowest scorers at home with the third-highest scorers away, and the table has them 11 places apart.
Vitória are 15th on 38 points after 33 games, with 35 goals scored and 48 conceded. Fluminense are 4th on 54 points with 52 scored and 42 against. On paper it is a clear gap, yet we find the three results close together, and a draw is very much in play.
Vitória's last five in the league were a 2-0 loss at Coritiba, a 1-1 home draw with Athletico PR, a 1-1 draw at Corinthians, a 2-1 defeat at São Paulo and a 4-0 home win over Chapecoense. That makes one win, two draws and two defeats, and the win is the only game in which they scored more than once.
Goals are the problem. They average 1.06 per game, the 3rd fewest in the league, and their games rarely open up: both teams have scored in only 42% of them, the lowest in the division, and just 39% have gone over 2.5 goals. They do keep clean sheets at the 4th highest rate, 33%.
Fluminense have won two of their last five across the league and the Copa Libertadores. They beat Internacional 2-1 on 28 October, lost 2-1 at Chapecoense, won 1-0 at Palmeiras in the Libertadores and lost 2-1 at home to Santos. Before that they lost 2-1 at home to Palmeiras in the Libertadores on 15 October. Each of those results fell within a single goal.
They score freely at 1.58 a game, the 3rd most in the league, and their 5.55 shots on target per game are the 2nd most. Both teams have scored in 73% of their games, the 2nd highest rate. They have kept a clean sheet in only 18%, the 6th lowest rate in the league.
Vitória possible starting lineup:
Lucas Arcanjo; Edenilson Santos, Cacá, Luan Cândido, Jamerson; Zé Vitor, Caíque Gonçalves, Emmanuel Martínez; Erick, Diego Tarzia, Renê
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Fábio; Guga, Thiago Silva, Juan Pablo Freytes, Renê; Nonato, Hércules, Agustín Canobbio; Ganso, Jefferson Savarino, Hulk
Zé Vitor has made at least one tackle in 12 straight games and averages 3.3 a game. In his last five games he has made 4, 3, 3, 5 and 3. Bet365 have him at 1.29 for two or more tackles.
Ganso has committed a foul in seven straight games and is 1.44 at bet365 to commit another.
Nonato has made a tackle in eight straight games and a foul in five straight, averaging 2.3 tackles and 3 fouls.
Luan Cândido has made a tackle in six straight games for Vitória, averaging 1.7 a game, and is 1.14 at bet365 to make another.
Jamerson, a Vitória defender, has had a shot in four of his last five games, 1.4 a game over that run, and is 1.50 at Ladbrokes and Coral for one or more.
We make Fluminense the likeliest winners at 39%, with Vitória on 31% and the draw on 30%. Bet365 make Fluminense the favourites at 2.50, ahead of Vitória at 2.82, and the draw is 3.40 at Coral.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Vitória to win | 2.82 (bet365) | 31% |
| Draw | 3.40 (Coral) | 30% |
| Fluminense to win | 2.50 (bet365) | 39% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | 50% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 (bet365) | 71% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 (bet365) | 43% |
We expect 1.13 goals from Vitória and 1.28 from Fluminense. 1-1 is the likeliest score at 14%, though we make Fluminense slightly more likely to win. Vitória's low-scoring games and Fluminense's open ones pull in opposite directions.
In the player markets, Zé Vitor has made two or more tackles in each of his last five games and is 1.29 at bet365 for another.
Statz prediction: Vitória 1-1 Fluminense.
Vitória vs Fluminense in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro kicks off at 23:00 UK time on Friday 6 November 2026. The game is at the Estádio Manoel Barradas, where 15th-placed Vitória host 4th-placed Fluminense after 33 games.
We predict a 1-1 draw for Vitória vs Fluminense in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro, which has a 14% chance as the likeliest score. We make a draw 30% likely, and Fluminense a slight favourite to win at 39%.
Fluminense are the 2.50 favourites at bet365 for the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro game against Vitória, who are 2.82. Our model also backs Fluminense at 39%, with a Vitória win at 31%.
We give both teams to score a 50% chance in Vitória vs Fluminense in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro, with bet365 at 1.80. Fluminense have scored and conceded in 73% of their games, while Vitória's rate is the league's lowest at 42%.
Fluminense are 4th on 54 points and Vitória are 15th on 38 points after 33 games in the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro. Fluminense have scored 52 and conceded 42, and Vitória have scored 35 and conceded 48.
Zé Vitor has made a tackle in 12 straight Campeonato Brasileiro games for Vitória in 2026, averaging 3.3 a game. He is 1.29 at bet365 for two or more tackles against Fluminense.
Vitória are predicted to start Lucas Arcanjo in goal, with Zé Vitor and Emmanuel Martínez in midfield, for the 2026 Campeonato Brasileiro game. Fluminense are predicted to line up with Fábio, Thiago Silva, Ganso and Hulk.