Burton Albion host Huddersfield Town at 15:00 UK on Saturday 3 October at the Pirelli Stadium, in a fixture that is a straight argument between results and performances.
Huddersfield have the best expected goal difference in League One and sit below where it says they should. Burton have scored almost six goals more than their chances were worth, the second-biggest over-performance in the division.
Burton won 1-0 at Plymouth last Saturday, which followed a 2-2 with Mansfield and a 0-3 at Oxford. They are seventh of 24 for scoring at 1.63 a game, and they get there without much volume: twenty-second for shots on target at 3.13 and last of all 24 for corners at 3.13 a game. Three-quarters of their matches have gone over 2.5 goals with scoring at both ends. Our League One expected points table has them 3.9 points ahead of what their chances deserved.
Huddersfield have not played since losing 2-1 at Bromley on 19 September, a result that came after a 0-0 at Mansfield and a 1-1 at home to Notts County. The numbers underneath are much better than that run: first of 24 for shots on target at 6.14 a game and second for goals conceded at 0.86. The same table has them on the division's best expected goal difference while sitting below their expected points. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 1.52 goals for Huddersfield and 1.06 for Burton, a combined 2.58, and rates Huddersfield 46.9 per cent to win against a margin-free implied 50.5. The model is a little short of the price on the favourite.
Burton at 3.90 carry 25.6 per cent against an implied 23.4, which is the selection the model has above the market here. Under 2.5 goals at 1.95 is projected at 52.3 against 48.7, and both teams to score, No, at 2.05 is 48 against 45.3. Everything leans quietly towards the home side and away from goals.
That is the opposite of both clubs' recent records. Three-quarters of Burton's games have gone over 2.5, and 71 per cent of Huddersfield's have seen goals at both ends. The model is reading the shot counts rather than the scorelines.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Neil Hair, with no completed matches in our database this season, so there is no card or foul average to read.
The streaks fill the gap. Curtis Tilt of Burton and Ashley Fletcher of Huddersfield have both committed a foul in seven straight games. Joe Taylor has had a shot on target and two or more shots in six straight. Toby Sibbick has made two or more tackles in six straight and Ryan Ledson in five.
Huddersfield are twenty-third of 24 for cards at 1.29 a game, so the booking markets are the weaker end of this fixture. League One carries no player prop pricing, so the live fixture page is the place these numbers move.
Huddersfield are the better team on everything that is slow to change, and they are still the side the model has slightly short of its price. Burton's whole season rests on finishing that has run well ahead of the chances creating it.
The read is a close game that the shot counts say Huddersfield should edge, in which the home price is the one carrying any margin and the goals markets lean quieter than either club's record suggests.
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