The Premier League season opens at the Emirates on Friday night (20:00 UK time) with the widest mismatch the Statz model prints all weekend: champions Arsenal, who the model makes 57% favourites to retain the title, against promoted Coventry City, handed a 60.9% relegation probability before a ball is kicked. Arsenal win this fixture in 79.8% of simulations - the strongest home call of the entire opening round.
Kickoff is at 20:00 UK time on Friday 21 August. All numbers below come from the live Statz match centre, where the projections re-run through to kickoff.
Arsenal are expected to line up 4-2-3-1, with Viktor Gyökeres leading the line ahead of Ødegaard, Saka and summer signing Christos Tzolis. The defensive concern is real, though: William Saliba and Jurriën Timber are both out, so Mosquera partners Gabriel with Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ben White in support. Coventry arrive close to full strength - Jack Rudoni is their only doubt - with Brandon Thomas-Asante and Loum Tchaouna the attacking threats and Kaine Kesler-Hayden's side set up in a mirror 4-2-3-1.
Arsenal predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Raya, Calafiori, Gabriel, Mosquera, White, Rice, Lewis-Skelly, Tzolis, Ødegaard, Saka, Gyökeres.
Coventry predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Rushworth, Dasilva, Kitching, Amenda, van Ewijk, Onyeka, Grimes, Tchaouna, Thomas-Asante, Sakamoto, Wright.
Line-ups are predicted, not confirmed - the Statz team news page tracks every club's expected XI up to kickoff.
Arsenal closed their title-winning season unbeaten in five (WWWWD); Coventry finished their promotion campaign with three wins and two draws in their last five (DDWWW). The gulf is in the level those runs came at - and the model's 58.2% clean-sheet projection for Arsenal, the highest of the weekend, says it expects the gap to show even with a patched-up back line.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Two Statz streak lines stand out. Bukayo Saka has made a tackle in every one of his last five appearances - a quiet route into same-game markets - and Kai Havertz has registered a shot on target in five straight. For Coventry, both Thomas-Asante and Tchaouna have had a shot in each of their last five, which is the profile of a side that will carry the occasional counter-punch even in a losing cause.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
At the time of writing Arsenal are 1.18 to win with bet365, a price the model's 79.8% barely argues with. The interest is in the secondary markets: the model puts both teams to score at just 38.6% (No BTTS is 2.38) on the strength of that 58.2% Arsenal clean-sheet number, while over 2.5 goals lands at 59.4% (1.57) - an Arsenal-dominant version of a goal-filled game. The Statz Bet Builder above prices its four-leg combination at 4.47.
The champions at home to the weekend's weakest projection, with the highest clean-sheet chance of the round even without Saliba and Timber. The model says Arsenal, probably to nil, in a game they control from the first whistle. Anything else would be the opening weekend's biggest shock by some distance.