Saturday's early kickoff (12:30 UK time) takes Manchester United to the newly promoted club the Statz model rates most harshly: Hull City, whose 92.5% relegation projection is the bleakest number the model has printed for any club in any league this season. United win this in 66.1% of simulations - the strongest away call of the weekend.
Kickoff is at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 22 August. All numbers below come from the live Statz match centre, where the projections re-run through to kickoff.
United's expected XI has Bryan Mbeumo, Matheus Cunha and Amad behind no recognised striker in a fluid 4-2-3-1, with Bruno Fernandes pulling the strings and Senne Lammens in goal. De Ligt and Ugarte are out, and Benjamin Šeško is among the doubts. Hull's problems run deeper: six players are unavailable - including first-choice keeper Jack Butland - leaving Oliver McBurnie to lead the line in front of a makeshift back four.
Hull predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Tzolakis, Giles, Egan, Ajayi, Coyle, Slater, Crooks, Millar, Belloumi, Hjertø-Dahl, McBurnie.
Man Utd predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Lammens, Shaw, Maguire, Yoro, Dalot, Andrey Santos, Tielemans, Cunha, B.Fernandes, Amad, Mbeumo.
Line-ups are predicted, not confirmed - the Statz team news page tracks every club's expected XI up to kickoff.
United's closing form last season read WWDWW; Hull limped over the survival line in the Championship at LWDWW. The model gives United a 41.3% chance of a clean sheet - the second-best defensive projection of the round - and Hull just 0.88 projected goals at home.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The Statz streak scan points at United's midfield: Youri Tielemans has had a shot in five straight appearances, and Harry Maguire - restored as the defensive anchor - has made a tackle in five straight, the profile the defensive-contribution era rewards. Hull's best hope is set-piece chaos: McBurnie has committed a foul in four of his last five, which cuts both ways.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
United are 1.36 with bet365 at the time of writing, and the model's 66.1% says the price is about right rather than generous. The sharper angle is goals: the model has over 2.5 at 59.5% (1.67 at the time of writing) and both teams to score essentially a coin-toss at 52.2% - Hull at home, roared on by a promoted crowd, should get at least one meaningful spell. The Bet Builder above combines four legs at 2.83.
The weekend's strongest away favourite against its bleakest survival projection. United should win - the model says two clear - but the early kickoff after a promotion party is the classic banana-skin slot, and Hull's six absentees may matter less than the noise. Take the result, be braver on the goals.