Of all the numbers the model spat out this summer, the one it produced for Hull City is the hardest to look at: a 92.5% relegation probability, the bleakest read it has given any club in any league we cover. Twenty-seven projected points. Seventy-six goals conceded. That is the forecast Hull carry into their first Premier League home game since 2010.
Manchester United arrive as the model's fourth-placed side with a rebuilt front line and a lunchtime kickoff to negotiate. Everyone in the country expects this to be comfortable, which is usually when it isn't.
Kickoff is 12:30pm UK, live on TNT Sports. All numbers below come from the live Statz match centre.
Hull's problem is not tactical, it is arithmetical: six players are unavailable, including first-choice goalkeeper Jack Butland, with Drameh, Hughes, Gyabi, Matazo and Zambrano also out. Konstantinos Tzolakis takes the gloves behind a back four that has barely been picked, and Oliver McBurnie leads the line alone.
United are without De Ligt and Ugarte, and Benjamin Šeško is among the doubts, which is why the expected shape has Bryan Mbeumo through the middle with Cunha and Amad either side of Bruno Fernandes. Senne Lammens starts in goal.
Hull predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Tzolakis; Giles, Egan, Ajayi, Coyle; Slater, Crooks; Millar, Belloumi, Hjertø-Dahl; McBurnie.
Man Utd predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Lammens; Shaw, Maguire, Yoro, Dalot; Andrey Santos, Tielemans; Cunha, B.Fernandes, Amad; Mbeumo.
Predicted, not confirmed - the Statz team news page tracks both clubs to kickoff.
United closed last season WWDWW and were the model's pick for fourth. Hull limped over the Championship survival line at LWDWW and needed a play-off campaign to get here at all. The projections read 2.20 goals to 0.88, with United given a 41.3% clean sheet - the second-best defensive number of the round.
The gap is real. The question is whether it shows up before Hull's crowd has had its afternoon.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The Hull card is thinner than United's, which tells its own story, but there is one starter worth a look. Mohamed Belloumi 3+ shots at 3.40 is the pick of them: he has managed three or more in two of his last five and Hull will spend the afternoon breaking rather than building, which funnels everything through their most direct outlet.
For United, Manor Solomon aside, the interesting names are defensive. Luke Shaw's fouls line and Matt Crooks' at the other end both project well, though both come from our commentary-parsed data rather than the officially recorded stats, so treat them as softer evidence than the shots markets.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
United at 1.36 is priced about right for a 66.1% chance, which is another way of saying there is no argument to be had with the market on the result.
The goals are more interesting. The model has over 2.5 at 59.5% (1.67 at the time of writing) and both teams to score at 52.2%. Hull will have to come out at some point - a promoted side cannot sit in for 90 minutes in front of its own crowd on the first Saturday - and United's back line, with De Ligt out and a new keeper behind it, is not obviously watertight either.
The bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.67.
United win this most days, and the model's 66.1% is fair. But a 12:30 kickoff, a promoted crowd that has waited sixteen years for this, and a United side still working out its best front three is a recipe for a scrappier afternoon than the projections imply.
Take the goals and let the result look after itself.