Crystal Palace host Manchester City at Selhurst Park on Friday 28 August, with kick-off at 8:00pm UK time. It is the standout game of the Premier League weekend's opening night, and the two clubs arrive in very different moods.
Palace were beaten 2-0 at Everton on the opening weekend and are still waiting for their first goal of the season. City edged AFC Bournemouth 2-1 and posted some of the strongest attacking numbers of gameweek one. The Statz model projects 1.81 goals for the visitors against 1.03 for the hosts, and you can follow every number on the Crystal Palace vs Manchester City match page.
The XIs below are predicted lineups, not confirmed team news. This section will be updated as soon as the official team sheets land, usually around an hour before kick-off.
Dean Henderson; Jaydee Canvot, Chris Richards, Óscar Mingueza; Daniel Muñoz, Adam Wharton, Daichi Kamada, Tyrick Mitchell; Dwight McNeil, Eddie Nketiah; Jean-Philippe Mateta.
The predicted shape is a back three, with Muñoz and Mitchell providing the width and Jean-Philippe Mateta leading the line.
Gianluigi Donnarumma; Josko Gvardiol, Rúben Dias, Abdukodir Khusanov, Rico Lewis; Marc Guéhi, Mateo Kovacic; Antoine Semenyo, Nico O'Reilly, Phil Foden; Erling Haaland.
Marc Guéhi is predicted to line up against his former club, while Erling Haaland again spearheads the attack with Phil Foden and Antoine Semenyo in support.
Palace opened the season with a 2-0 defeat at Everton and have won three of their last ten matches in all competitions, drawing two and losing five. The wider run stretches back to May and includes a 1-2 home loss to Arsenal, a 2-2 draw at Brentford and a 3-0 defeat away to Manchester City.
City beat AFC Bournemouth 2-1 last weekend and have won seven of their last ten in all competitions, drawing two and losing one. The most recent meeting between these sides came in May, when City won 3-0 at home.
Erling Haaland has landed at least one shot on target in each of his last five appearances, racking up 11 in total at an average of 2.2 per game.
Daniel Muñoz has committed a foul in every one of his last five matches, nine in all at 1.8 per game. That profile matters in a fixture where Palace committed 15 fouls on the opening weekend, the third most of any Premier League side.
Dwight McNeil has taken eight shots across his last five appearances, while Nico O'Reilly has had a shot in four of his last five.
At team level, City hit eight corners in their opener, the most in the league in gameweek one, and their six shots on target ranked third. Palace did not win a corner at Everton, the lowest figure in the division, and managed four shots on target. Referee Andy Madley has no games logged yet this season, so there is no current-season card data to lean on.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The fouls market is where the model sees the biggest gaps between its rankings and the prices. Chris Richards to commit 1+ foul was 2.10 at the time of writing; the model rates him the fourth most likely player in this fixture to land that line, while the market prices him 24th. Óscar Mingueza to commit 2+ fouls was 4.33 at the time of writing, with the model ranking him fifth most likely against a price rank of 21st.
On the City side, Rúben Dias to commit 1+ foul was 2.20 at the time of writing, a price the model thinks underrates him: fifth by likelihood, 20th by price.
Two more speculative lines stand out. Adam Wharton to register 1+ shot on target was 4.50 at the time of writing, seventh by model likelihood against 20th by price. And Rico Lewis to land 2+ shots on target was 21.00 at the time of writing, a line the model ranks him third most likely in the match to hit, against a market rank of 18th. Prices move quickly in these markets, so treat every quote as at the time of writing, and compare the full set of numbers on our Premier League projections page.
City's early numbers point to sustained pressure at Selhurst Park: the model projects them ahead of Palace for goals, shots, shots on target and corners. Palace's clearest route into the props conversation is their physical edge, with the model leaning into fouls lines on both sides of the ball. The predicted XIs above will be updated once the team sheets land, so check back on the match page before kick-off.