Leeds United welcome Brentford to Elland Road on Sunday 30 August, kick-off 14:00 UK time. Both arrive unbeaten and yet to concede in the Premier League: Leeds won 1-0 at Nottingham Forest on the opening weekend, while Brentford beat Tottenham 3-0.
Midweek did nothing to slow either side - Leeds returned to Forest and won 2-0 in the Carabao Cup, while Brentford put six past Birmingham City. The Statz model can barely split them here, projecting 1.5 goals for Leeds and 1.49 for Brentford. The full match page, with live projections and head-to-head data, is here.
No team sheets yet - confirmed lineups typically arrive about an hour before kick-off, and our feed carries no XI for this fixture at the time of writing. All lineup references below are predicted XIs, and this section will be updated when the team news lands.
The model's player data centres on Ethan Ampadu, Jaka Bijol and Dominic Calvert-Lewin for Leeds, plus Mamadou Sangaré in the Brentford midfield - all four feature in the Statz Bet Builder below and all are expected to start. Every player angle in this preview is conditional on that team news.
Leeds have won 6 of their last 10 in all competitions, drawing 2 and losing 2, and have just beaten Nottingham Forest twice in four days: 1-0 in the league on 22 August, then 2-0 in the Carabao Cup on 25 August. Before the summer they signed off with a 3-0 defeat at West Ham, a 1-0 win over Brighton and a 1-1 draw at Tottenham.
Brentford's last 10 reads 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats, but the two results that matter most came this past week: 3-0 over Tottenham in the league, then 6-1 at Birmingham City in the cup. One round into the league season they lead the division for shots on target per game (8) and rank second for goals scored (3). Leeds' opening win was built the other way - 3 shots on target, 16th in the league - but, like Brentford, they are yet to concede.
No player in this fixture carries an active streak of three or more games at the thresholds our model checks, so the eye-catchers are in last-five volume. Mamadou Sangaré has taken at least one shot in each of his last five games - 13 in all, which works out at 2.6 per game, including a five-shot outing - while Dominic Calvert-Lewin has registered a shot on target in four of his last five.
The fouls data is just as consistent. Ethan Ampadu has committed at least one foul in every one of his last five games (8 in total, 1.6 per game), and Jaka Bijol has done the same (6 across his five). All four make up the Statz Bet Builder below.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Fouls are the market the model keeps flagging. Brentford committed the most fouls per game of any Premier League side in the opening round (17), while Leeds rank sixth (14). Referee Tony Harrington's single game this season produced 32 fouls and 4 yellow cards - one match is a thin sample, but it points the same way. The model projects 10.72 fouls for Brentford and 8.96 for Leeds.
The standout model-market gap is Joe Rodon in the fouls column: our model rates him the third-likeliest player in this match for 1+ fouls while the market prices him 17th, at 2.0 at the time of writing, with his 2+ line at 6.5 at the time of writing. On the Brentford side, Dango Ouattara (model third-likeliest for 1+ fouls against a 15th-ranked price, 1.67 at the time of writing) and Jaidon Anthony (fifth v 18th, 1.83 at the time of writing) carry similar gaps. Team news is unconfirmed, so each of these is only worth touching if the player starts.
On the match itself, the projections are as close as they come - 1.5 goals for Leeds against 1.49 for Brentford - and the opening round split the pair on style: Brentford's win cleared 2.5 goals, Leeds' stayed under. The full numbers are on the Statz projections tool.
On the numbers this is as tight as they come: 1.5 projected goals for Leeds against 1.49 for Brentford, with both sides yet to concede in the league and both winning twice this week. The value the model flags is concentrated in the fouls market, led by Joe Rodon, with Brentford's league-leading foul count and Tony Harrington's whistle in support. All of it is subject to team news - check back here for the confirmed XIs.