Liverpool welcome Nottingham Forest to Anfield on Saturday 29 August for the Premier League's 12:30pm UK lunchtime kick-off. Liverpool opened with a 2-2 draw at Newcastle United. Forest's week could hardly have gone worse: two home defeats to Leeds United in the space of four days, without scoring in either.
The Statz model projects 1.84 goals for the hosts against 0.93 for Forest, and the shot counts are just as lopsided at 17.31 projected for Liverpool and 9.49 for the visitors. The full numbers live on the Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest match page.
The XIs below are predicted lineups, not confirmed team news. This section will be updated as soon as the official team sheets land, usually around an hour before kick-off.
Alisson; Jeremie Frimpong, Jérémy Jacquet, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez; Ryan Gravenberch, Dominik Szoboszlai; Rio Ngumoha, Florian Wirtz, Cody Gakpo; Alexander Isak.
Alexander Isak is predicted to lead the line, with Florian Wirtz, Rio Ngumoha and Cody Gakpo behind him and Ryan Gravenberch anchoring midfield alongside Dominik Szoboszlai.
Matz Sels; Murillo, Nikola Milenković, Jair Cunha; Neco Williams, Ibrahim Sangaré, James McAtee, Ola Aina; Dan Ndoye, Morgan Gibbs-White; Igor Jesus.
Forest's predicted shape is a back three, with Neco Williams and Ola Aina as the wing-backs and Igor Jesus up top, supported by Dan Ndoye and Morgan Gibbs-White.
Liverpool's 2-2 draw at Newcastle extended a bumpy run: one win in their last six in all competitions, a stretch that reaches back into the end of last season and includes a 4-2 defeat at Aston Villa and a 3-2 loss at Manchester United.
Forest are without a win in their last six in all competitions, and the new season has begun with back-to-back home defeats to Leeds United: 1-0 in the league and 2-0 in the Carabao Cup. They have not scored in either match this season.
Florian Wirtz has taken 13 shots across his last five appearances, an average of 2.6 per game, with at least two in every one of them.
Alexander Isak has landed at least one shot on target in each of his last five, eight in total at 1.6 per game.
For Forest, Neco Williams has committed a foul in every one of his last five matches, ten in all at 2 per game, and Dan Ndoye has also fouled in each of his last five, seven in total.
At team level, Liverpool's seven shots on target in gameweek one ranked second in the league and their six corners fourth, while Forest's two shots on target ranked 18th. Both sides committed 15 fouls on the opening weekend, tied for third most in the division, and Liverpool's three cards ranked third. Referee Samuel Barrott has no games logged yet this season, so there is no current-season card data to lean on.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Fouls dominate the model's value list. Neco Williams to commit 1+ foul was 1.44 at the time of writing, and the model makes him the single most likely player in this fixture to land it, while the market prices him only 13th. Nikola Milenković to commit 1+ foul was 1.62 at the time of writing, sixth by model likelihood against 21st by price, and the same player's 2+ fouls line was 3.75, eighth by likelihood against 21st.
Dan Ndoye and Morgan Gibbs-White both sat at 1.50 for 1+ foul at the time of writing, with the model ranking each of them sixth most likely against a market rank of 16th.
Away from the fouls column, Ryan Gravenberch to have 1+ shot was 1.33 at the time of writing, fifth by model likelihood against 14th by price, and Ola Aina to have 1+ shot was 2.38, eighth against 19th. Prices move quickly in these markets, so treat every quote as at the time of writing, and compare the full set of numbers on our Premier League projections page.
The data leans firmly towards Liverpool: 1.84 projected goals to 0.93, 17.31 projected shots to 9.49, and a Forest side yet to score this season. Forest's likeliest contribution to the props markets is physical, with Williams and Milenković heading the model's fouls list. Team news lands around an hour before the 12:30pm kick-off, and the predicted XIs above will be updated on the match page.