Updated 18 September 2026.
AFC Bournemouth host Liverpool at 14:00 UK on Sunday 20 September. AFC Bournemouth are fifteenth on three points, Liverpool eighth on six.
The table is unkind to both, and the reason is the same: neither has been losing, they have been drawing.
AFC Bournemouth have drawn three of their last five league games - 1-1 with Everton, 2-2 at Newcastle United, 2-2 with Brentford - and beaten Real Sociedad 2-1 away in the Europa League on Thursday. Three points from four league games flatters nobody, but the defensive numbers are excellent: 1.15 expected goals against per game, second only to Arsenal in the entire division. Their 6.9 expected points against three actual is the second-largest shortfall in the league.
Liverpool have the same complaint. Drawn three of five: 2-2 with Nottingham Forest, 0-0 with Fulham, and wins over Ipswich Town, Atletico Madrid and Tottenham Hotspur in between. They create 1.92 expected goals a game, the second most in the league, and have six goals to show for it.
The head to head is lively. AFC Bournemouth won 3-2 at home in January, Liverpool won the reverse 4-2 in August, and before that 2-0, 3-0 and 4-0 to Liverpool.
The model makes under 2.5 goals 41 percent at 8/5, 5.2 points clear of its price and the second-biggest edge of the round. No goals at both ends is 39 percent at the same price, 3.4 clear. AFC Bournemouth to win is 32 percent at 21/10.
Under 2.5 is our Premier League betting predictions selection. The honest counterweight is the head to head: these two produced 3-2 and 4-2 in their last two meetings, and Liverpool create more than almost anyone. The bet is on AFC Bournemouth's defensive record being real rather than on Liverpool being blunt.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee is Michael Oliver, and he has the largest sample of any official this weekend at 56 matches: 3.63 cards from 23.29 fouls, which is a card every 6.4 fouls - one of the most lenient ratios in the country. That matters here: this is unlikely to become a stop-start, set-piece-heavy game. Full list in our Referee Watch.
Both sides' underlying numbers are on the Premier League xG table, and per-90 player figures on the Premier League player stats page.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
Two sides who have drawn more than they should have, one with the second-best defence in England and one who cannot convert the chances they make. The price on the under is the interesting part rather than the outcome itself.
Prediction: AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Liverpool.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes a settled record for every column, win or lose.
Under 2.5 goals at 8/5. The model makes it 41 percent against an implied 36, the second-biggest edge of the round.
They concede 1.15 expected goals a game, second only to Arsenal in the Premier League, despite sitting fifteenth on three points.
Draws. AFC Bournemouth have drawn three of five and Liverpool three of five. Bournemouth's 6.9 expected points against three actual is the second-largest shortfall in the league.
Michael Oliver, with the largest sample of any official this weekend at 56 matches. He books a player every 6.4 fouls, one of the most lenient ratios in the country.