Updated 29 October 2026.
AFC Bournemouth host Leeds United at the Vitality Stadium on Saturday 31 October, kick-off 3pm UK. Bournemouth have won their last five in all competitions without conceding, 15-0 on aggregate. Leeds have drawn three of their last five and sit 7th in the Premier League on the back of the second-best defensive record in the division.
Bournemouth are 13th in the Premier League table with 9 points from 8. Since the middle of October they have beaten Sturm Graz 3-0, Sunderland 2-0, AC Milan 3-0, Manchester United 3-0 away and Villa 3-0 in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday. Across the league season they average 1.5 goals a game, the 6th most, and their shots on target come in at 5 a game, the 4th most. Both teams have scored in 63% of their league games, the 3rd highest.
Leeds are 7th with 11 points from 8, built on draws: two wins, five draws and one defeat. They have conceded only 6 goals, 0.75 a game and the 2nd fewest, and they have kept a clean sheet in 38% of games, the 4th highest. The latest was a 0-0 at Sunderland on Sunday, following a 1-1 with Manchester United. Their last defeat was 2-1 at Arsenal on 10 October. Before that came a 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace and a 4-1 win over Newcastle.
Leeds are less of a goal source, scoring 1.13 a game, the 10th fewest. Only 25% of their games have gone over 2.5 goals, the 3rd lowest rate, against 63% for Bournemouth, the 3rd highest. We make over 2.5 goals 54% likely in this game.
AFC Bournemouth possible starting lineup:
Petrovic; Smith, Silva, Hill, Truffert; Adams, Cook; Rayan, Tavernier, Kluivert; Evanilson
Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Trafford; Bogle, Bijol, Muharemović, Gudmundsson; Ampadu, Tanaka; Wilson, Aaronson, Justin; Calvert-Lewin
Evanilson leads the Bournemouth line and has had a shot on target in each of his last five games, with three in one of them. Bet365 offer 1.53 on one or more shots on target, and he is the first leg of our bet builder.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has committed at least one foul in eight straight games, averaging 2 a game. He is 1.29 at bet365 to do it again.
Ethan Ampadu has made at least one tackle in all eight league games this season, averaging 2.1, and he has also fouled at least once in each of his last five, with 5 in one of them. He is 1.08 at bet365 to make a tackle.
Jayden Bogle has fouled in eight straight games and had a shot in six in a row. A shot is 1.83 at bet365. For Bournemouth, James Hill has made two or more tackles in four straight games, averaging 4.3, at 1.57 at bet365.
We back AFC Bournemouth to win, and bet365 have them at 2.10. Our model gives them a 49% chance, with the draw at 25% and Leeds at 26%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 2.10 (bet365) | 49% |
| Draw | 3.50 (midnite) | 25% |
| Leeds win | 3.50 (boylesports) | 26% |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 (midnite) | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (bet365) | 54% |
Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 12%, though we make Bournemouth more likely to win overall, with 2-1 and 1-0 next on the list. We project Bournemouth at 1.68 goals and Leeds at 1.15, which is why we lean towards both teams scoring.
Our bet builder has four legs: Evanilson 1+ shots on target, António Silva 1+ tackles, Calvert-Lewin 1+ fouls and Ampadu 1+ fouls. Each of those four players has cleared his line in all of his last five games.
AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United in the 2026/27 Premier League kicks off at 3pm UK on Saturday 31 October 2026 at the Vitality Stadium. It is the ninth league game of the season for both clubs, who have each played 8.
We predict a 1-1 draw for AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United in the 2026/27 Premier League, the likeliest single scoreline at 12%, though we make Bournemouth the likelier winners overall at 49%. We project 1.68 goals for Bournemouth and 1.15 for Leeds, with 2-1 and 1-0 next on our list.
AFC Bournemouth are favourites against Leeds United in the 2026/27 Premier League, and we give them a 49% chance of winning, with the draw at 25% and a Leeds win at 26%. They have won their last 5 games in all competitions, scoring 15 and conceding none.
We give both teams to score a 56% chance in AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United in the 2026/27 Premier League, with Bournemouth projected at 1.68 goals and Leeds at 1.15. Both teams have scored in 63% of Bournemouth's league games and 63% of Leeds' this season.
Before AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United on 31 October 2026, Leeds United are 7th in the 2026/27 Premier League with 11 points from 8 games, and AFC Bournemouth are 13th with 9 points from 8, six places lower and two points behind.
AFC Bournemouth arrive for the 2026/27 Premier League game against Leeds United on 31 October 2026 having won their last 5 games in all competitions without conceding, 15-0 on aggregate, including 3-0 at Manchester United and 3-0 against Villa in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday.
For the 3pm UK kick-off on 31 October 2026 in the 2026/27 Premier League, AFC Bournemouth's possible starting lineup against Leeds United is Petrovic; Smith, Silva, Hill, Truffert; Adams, Cook; Rayan, Tavernier, Kluivert; Evanilson, and Leeds United's possible starting lineup is Trafford; Bogle, Bijol, Muharemović, Gudmundsson; Ampadu, Tanaka; Wilson, Aaronson, Justin; Calvert-Lewin.