Venezia are 20th in Serie A with no points from six games, and on Saturday 17 October (kick-off 14:00 UK) they host 8th-placed Napoli at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. The hosts have conceded 16 goals in six matches, so the question is how many Napoli can score, while the home side's best hope of a story lies in a handful of players who have been consistent in an otherwise grim run.
Venezia have lost all six league games, scoring 5 and conceding 16. They have lost seven games in a row in all competitions. The latest was a 3-1 loss at Atalanta on 12 October, following a 0-2 home defeat to Lazio and a 2-4 loss to Fiorentina. Venezia concede 2.67 goals a game, the most in the division, and pick up the most cards of any side at 3 a game. At the other end their 0.83 goals a game is the 4th fewest. Their shots on target sit at 4.33 a game, the 9th fewest.
Napoli have 10 points from six, with three wins, a draw and two defeats, and have scored 10 and conceded 6. They are 5th for goals scored at 1.67 a game and 6th for fewest conceded, with clean sheets in half their matches, the 2nd highest rate. They arrive on the back of a 3-0 home win over Frosinone, though a 3-1 defeat at Villarreal in the Champions League followed three days later. Before that came a 1-1 draw at Fiorentina and a 1-0 win over Bologna. They are 4th for corners at 5.5 a game and take few fouls, the 4th fewest.
Venezia possible starting lineup:
Stanković; Schingtienne, Juan Jesus, Hainaut, Halhal; Sohm, Sagrado, Bašić, Kike Pérez; Yeboah, Adams
Napoli possible starting lineup:
Meret; MarÃn, Rrahmani, Badiashile, Di Lorenzo; Lobotka, De Bruyne, Spinazzola; Neres, Højlund, Lang
John Yeboah is the home side's most reliable source of numbers. He has had a shot on target in six straight games, two or more shots in each of those six, and a tackle in all six. The shots on target run is the best in the division and he is 1.50 at ladbrokes for another.
Antoine Hainaut has had at least one shot in six consecutive games from right-back and is 1.73 at bet365 to make it seven.
Rafa MarÃn has made at least one tackle in each of Napoli's last six matches, averaging two a game, and is 1.20 at bet365. Giovanni Di Lorenzo has done the same, averaging 2.5 tackles, at 1.10.
In attack, Noa Lang has had a shot in four straight games, averaging 2.3, and is 1.08 at bet365.
We back Napoli to win at 1.67 with bet365. Venezia are 5.00 and the draw is 4.20.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Venezia win | 5.00 (bet365) | 19% |
| Draw | 4.20 (ladbrokes) | 23% |
| Napoli win | 1.67 (bet365) | 58% |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 (ladbrokes) | 58% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 (bet365) | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 (bet365) | 60% |
Our projection has Napoli on 2.02 goals and Venezia on 1.09, which points to goals at both ends: both teams to score comes out at 58% and over 2.5 at 60%. The likeliest single score is 1-1, so a draw is in play, though we make Napoli the likeliest winners by a distance. Our prediction: Venezia 1-1 Napoli.
The player markets have the clearer angles. Yeboah has hit his shots on target line in all six games and is 1.44 at bet365 in our builder alongside Hainaut, Richie Sagrado and MarÃn, which combine to 3.65.