Genoa host Juventus at the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 19:45 UK. It pairs the side with the fewest shots on target in Serie A against one that has kept a clean sheet in half its league games, and Genoa arrive off a 1-0 win over Venezia.
Genoa sit 16th in Serie A with 7 points from 8 games. Juventus are 7th on 14 points, and they play on Wednesday having been at Lecce on Sunday and in the Europa League last Thursday.
Genoa have won two of their eight league games and lost five, scoring 6 and conceding 13. Their shots on target average 3 a game, the fewest in the division, and they score 0.75 a game, the 3rd fewest. They also collect more cards than any other side in Serie A, 2.75 a game.
Genoa have alternated wins and defeats in their last five. They beat Venezia 1-0 on Sunday and lost 2-0 at Roma the week before, with a 2-1 home win over Fiorentina sitting between that and a 2-1 defeat at Parma. All three wins came at home, the third being a 1-0 Coppa Italia win over Südtirol on 15 September.
Juventus have won four and drawn two of their eight, losing twice, with 11 scored and 8 conceded. Their 1 goal conceded a game is the 5th fewest in Serie A, and the clean-sheet rate of 50% is the 2nd highest in the league. They also lead Serie A for corners at 7.5 a game.
Their last five bring two wins, two draws and a defeat. A 2-0 win at Lecce on Sunday followed a 2-2 draw with Rennes in the Europa League and a 0-3 home defeat to Lazio. Before that they won 2-1 at Celta in the Europa League and drew 1-1 at Cagliari.
Genoa possible starting lineup:
Bijlow; Marcandalli, Østigård, Vásquez; Ellertsson, Frendrup, Puczka; Messias, Traoré; Colombo, Osmajic
Juventus possible starting lineup:
Vicario; Gatti, Bremer, LucumÃ, Kalulu; Douglas Luiz, Sarr, McKennie, Cambiaso; Woltemade, Kolo Muani
Mikael Egill Ellertsson has committed a foul in eight straight games, averaging 1.4, and made a tackle in all eight as well, at 2.5 a game. Ladbrokes have him at 1.50 to commit a foul again.
Leo Østigård has made at least one tackle in eight straight games, at 1.6 a game, and bet365 have him at 1.20 to do it again.
Randal Kolo Muani has had a shot in all eight of Juventus's league games, averaging 2.1. He is 1.06 at bet365 to take one against Genoa.
Bremer has also made a tackle in each of Juventus's eight league games, 1.6 a game, and is 1.20 at bet365 to make another.
Junior Messias has had a shot in seven straight games for Genoa at 2.1 a game, and is 1.17 at bet365 to take another.
We back Juventus, who are 1.75 at bet365 and who we give a 55% chance of winning. Genoa are 5.25 and we make them 17%, with the draw at 28% and 3.50 at Coral.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa win | 5.25 (bet365) | 17% |
| Draw | 3.50 (Coral) | 28% |
| Juventus win | 1.75 (bet365) | 55% |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 (bet365) | 41% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.50 (bet365) | 39% |
Our model projects 0.73 goals for Genoa and 1.52 for Juventus. The likeliest score is 0-1, at about 15%, ahead of 1-1 at 13%, so a draw is in play, but we make Juventus the likelier winners, and Genoa have the fewest shots on target in Serie A. Juventus have kept a clean sheet in half their league games and we give them a 48% chance of another. We put both teams to score at 41%, and both sides have scored in only 38% of Juventus's games, the 4th lowest rate in Serie A.
Prediction: Genoa 0-1 Juventus