France host Belgium at 19:45 UK on Monday 5 October at the Stade de France, a week after winning 1-0 in Liege.
Between them these two have conceded two goals in six matches. They are joint second of 54 teams for goals against and joint second for clean sheet rate, and the model has under 2.5 goals five and a half points above what the price implies.
France drew 1-1 with Italy on Friday, which was the first goal they had conceded in the competition. Before it they won 1-0 in Belgium and 1-0 in Turkey. Three games, one goal against, and not one of them has gone past two and a half goals, a rate that ranks forty-fifth of 54. It is a long way from the side that lost 4-6 to England in July.
Belgium beat Turkey 3-0 on Friday and won 2-0 in Italy to open the window, with the 0-1 at home to France in between. They have also conceded once in three and kept two clean sheets, and they are second of 54 for cards at four a game. Sixth for shots on target at 6.67. Team sheets are not confirmed.
The model projects 2.05 goals for France and 0.98 for Belgium, a combined 3.03, and agrees with the market exactly on the result: France 62.1 per cent against a margin-free implied 62.5, Belgium 17.2 against 17.4. Two tenths of a point in each direction is no disagreement at all.
The totals are a different matter. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.48, an implied 63.7 per cent, and the model has it at 58.2. Under 2.5 at 2.60 therefore carries five and a half points. Both teams to score, No, at 2.25 carries four and a half.
The teams' own records are blunter than the model. One goal conceded each in three matches, and the competition itself shares goals out less evenly than club football does, with both teams scoring in 46.6 per cent of Nations League games against 52.2 per cent in the English leagues.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
The referee for this fixture has not been published in our data yet, so there is no card or foul average to read from.
The shot lines are where this fixture is most legible, and both front lines are on long runs. Michael Olise has hit the target in all five of his last five, thirteen in total at 2.6 a game, priced 1.25, and in three straight. Désiré Doué has done it in four of five at 1.29 and had two or more shots in three straight at 1.18.
For Belgium, Youri Tielemans and Diego Moreira have each had a shot in all five of their last five, at 1.40 and 1.29. Kevin De Bruyne has had two or more shots in three straight at 1.30 and Dodi Lukébakio has hit the target in three straight at 1.44.
Belgium's four cards a game is the second-highest rate of 54 teams, and this is the fixture where they have least of the ball.
See the live Statz numbers for this fixture.
France are rightly favourites and the result market is priced to the model's own number, so there is nothing to do there in either direction.
The read is a tight game between two sides who have conceded once each in three matches, with the goals markets priced for something more open than either has produced. The shot counts on both front lines are the better-defined part of the card.
18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change. Statz publishes model projections, not advice.