Updated 15 November 2026.
Wales welcome Portugal to Cardiff City Stadium on Tuesday 17 November, kick-off 7:45pm UK, in the UEFA Nations League. The visitors lead their League A group on 12 points from five games, the hosts sit 4th in it on three, and the gap shows in the goals: Portugal have scored 10 and conceded 8, Wales have scored 3 and conceded 8.
Portugal arrive from a 4-1 home defeat to Denmark on Saturday, but they have still won four of their five and beat Wales 1-0 in the first meeting of the campaign. Wales lost 3-1 at Norway on the same night, their fourth defeat in five.
Portugal's place at the top of their group was built on a run of four wins. They opened with a 1-0 win over Wales, then beat Norway 2-1 and Denmark 4-2 away before seeing off Norway again at home. They average 2 goals a game, the 9th most in the competition, and 6.8 shots on target a game is the 3rd most. Both teams have scored in 80% of Portugal's games, the 4th highest rate, and 80% have gone over 2.5 goals, the 3rd highest.
They are not tight at the back, though. Portugal concede 1.6 a game, the 17th most, and only 20% of their matches have been clean sheets. Four of the eight goals they have let in came in the 1-4 defeat by Denmark on Saturday.
Wales have one win to show for five games, 2-1 over Norway at home, and have since lost 0-1 to Denmark and 1-3 at Norway. They score 0.6 a game, the 15th fewest, and manage 3.2 shots on target a game, the 12th fewest. They also win just 2.8 corners a game, the 10th fewest. They have not kept a clean sheet in their five games.
João Félix has had a shot in five straight games, averaging 2 a game. Pedro Neto has done it in four straight games, averaging 1.5, and is 1.11 at bet365 to have a shot.
In midfield, Rúben Neves has registered a shot in three in a row and is 1.29 at bet365 for another. Bruno Fernandes has hit the target in three straight games and is 1.40 at bet365, while Vitinha has done the same and is 2.50 at bet365.
For Wales, Ethan Ampadu has had a shot in five straight games, is 1.73 at bet365 to make it six, and has also made a tackle in four straight. Neco Williams has made at least one tackle in five straight games, averaging 3 a game.
We back Portugal to win, at 1.44 with Ladbrokes. Wales are 7.00 and the draw 5.00, both at bet365. Our model gives Portugal a 60% chance, Wales 18% and the draw 22%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Wales to win | 7.00 (bet365) | 18% |
| Draw | 5.00 (bet365) | 22% |
| Portugal to win | 1.44 (Ladbrokes) | 60% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (Coral) | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 (bet365) | 79% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 (bet365) | 56% |
Our prediction is Wales 0-1 Portugal. We project 1.95 goals for the visitors against 0.96 for the hosts, and Wales keep a clean sheet in only 14% of simulations. A draw is in play, with 1-1 a close third at 10% behind 0-1 and 0-2.
Over 1.5 goals is 79% in our model and over 2.5 is 56%. On the shot markets, Rúben Neves is 1.29 at bet365 to have a shot, and Francisco Trincão has had at least two shots in each of his last five games and is also 1.29 at bet365 to do it again. Rodrigo Mora has hit the target in four of his last five and is 1.50 at Coral.
Wales vs Portugal in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 17 November 2026 at Cardiff City Stadium, in the League A group stage.
Our prediction for Wales vs Portugal in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League is Wales 0-1 Portugal, an away win, with Portugal given a 60% chance of victory. Wales are at 18% and a draw at 22%, so a level scoreline is still in play.
Portugal are clear favourites for Wales vs Portugal in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League, priced at 1.44 with Ladbrokes. Wales are 7.00 and the draw is 5.00, both at bet365, and our model also backs the visitors at 60%.
Both teams to score in Wales vs Portugal in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League is 53% in our model and 1.80 at Coral. Portugal's games have had both teams scoring 80% of the time, the 4th highest rate in the competition.
Ahead of Wales vs Portugal in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League, Portugal lead their League A group on 12 points from 5 games, while Wales are 4th in it on 3 points. Portugal have won 4 and lost 1, and Wales have won 1 and lost 4.
Ethan Ampadu has had at least one shot in 5 straight games for Wales in the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League, averaging 1 a game over the run, and is 1.73 at bet365 to have another against Portugal. He has also made a tackle in 4 straight.