Santos and Bahia meet at the Estádio Urbano Caldeira in the Campeonato Brasileiro, kicking off at 01:00 UK on Sunday 25 October. Santos are 8th on 45 points from 31 games; Bahia are 7th on 49 from the same number, a place and four points ahead.
Santos arrive in better recent form. They have won three of their last five league games and seven of their last ten, while Bahia have won two of their last five and come off a 3-0 home defeat to Flamengo. Neymar has had a shot on target in nine straight games.
Santos have 12 wins, 9 draws and 10 defeats from 31 games in the Campeonato Brasileiro table, with 48 goals scored and 46 conceded. They won 2-1 at Fluminense on 18 October. Before that came a 2-1 loss at Atlético-MG on 11 October and a 2-2 home draw with Flamengo on 8 October. A 2-1 win at São Paulo on 2 October and a 2-1 win at Remo on 19 September complete the five: three wins, a draw and a defeat.
Santos score 1.55 goals a game, the 6th most in the league, and concede 1.48, also the 6th most. Both teams have scored in 74% of their league games, the highest rate in the competition, and 68% of them have gone over 2.5 goals, also the highest.
Bahia have 13 wins, 10 draws and 8 defeats, with 44 goals scored and 39 conceded. They lost 3-0 at home to Flamengo on 18 October. Before that they beat Mirassol 1-0 at home on 11 October, lost 1-0 at Palmeiras two days earlier and lost 2-1 at Athletico PR on 20 September. That is two wins and three defeats from their last five league games, and five wins, two draws and three defeats from their last ten.
Bahia are steadier at the back, conceding 1.26 a game, the 7th fewest, and keeping a clean sheet in 29% of their games, the 5th highest rate. They average 13.71 fouls a game, the 4th most, and 5.52 corners, the 6th most.
Santos possible starting lineup:
Diógenes; Rodinei, Gustavo Henrique, Luan Peres, João Alencar; Álvaro Barreal, Gabriel Bontempo; Everton, Neymar, Philippe Coutinho; Gabriel Barbosa
Bahia possible starting lineup:
Ronaldo; Marcos Victor, David Duarte, Marco Moreno, Luciano Juba; Nicolás Acevedo, Caio Alexandre; Rodrigo Nestor, Erick Pulga, Cristian Olivera; Alejo Veliz
Neymar has had a shot on target in nine straight games and at least two shots in each of his last eight, averaging 4.3 shots a game across that stretch. Midnite have him at 1.18 for a shot on target.
Gabriel Barbosa has hit the target in seven straight games, 1.6 a game, and is 1.25 at bet365 to do it again.
Alejo Veliz has had a shot in 12 consecutive games for Bahia at 2.7 a game; bet365 offer 1.08. Erick Pulga has shot in nine straight at 2.2 a game and is 1.25 at bet365.
At the back, Rodinei has made a tackle in six straight games for Santos and is 1.20 at bet365 to extend it. Marcos Victor has made at least two tackles in four straight for Bahia, 2.8 a game, and bet365 offer 2.25 for another two.
We back Santos, and the bookmakers agree: Midnite have them at 1.91, with the draw at 3.75 (BoyleSports) and Bahia at 3.90 (bet365). Both teams to score is 1.62 at bet365, over 2.5 goals 1.70 and over 1.5 goals 1.22.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Santos to win | 1.91 (midnite) | 51% |
| Draw | 3.75 (BoyleSports) | 25% |
| Bahia to win | 3.90 (bet365) | 24% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 (bet365) | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 (bet365) | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 (bet365) | 80% |
We project 1.79 goals for Santos and 1.16 for Bahia. 1-1 is the likeliest single score at 12%, though we make Santos 51% to win against 25% for a draw and 24% for Bahia. 2-1 (10%) and 2-0 (8%) follow. Both teams to score comes in at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Our prediction is Santos 1-1 Bahia, with the home win the likeliest of the three results. Neymar and Gabriel Barbosa have each had a shot on target in seven or more straight games, and Veliz and Pulga are on shot runs of 12 and nine for Bahia.