Updated 23 October 2026.
Mirassol welcome São Paulo to the Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 8:30pm UK time. It is 14th against 9th in the Campeonato Brasileiro table, and the gap between them is six points. Both sides have scored 36 goals in 31 games, but Mirassol have conceded 44 to São Paulo's 35.
Our model has the three results close together, with a slight lean to the hosts. A draw is very much in play, and we have the likeliest score at 1-1.
Mirassol are on 36 points from 31 games, with nine wins, nine draws and 13 defeats. Their goal difference is minus eight, 36 scored and 44 conceded. They come into this one after a 2-0 home win over Internacional on 16 October. Before that they lost 1-0 at Bahia and drew 1-1 at Bragantino. At home they are unbeaten in their last three, with two 2-0 wins and a 2-2 draw.
Their goals record is modest at 1.16 per game, the 8th fewest, and they keep a clean sheet in only 10% of matches, the 2nd lowest. Both teams have scored in 65% of Mirassol's games, the 5th highest rate in the league.
São Paulo are on 42 points, with 12 wins, six draws and 13 defeats, and a goal difference of plus one. They have won their last two, 1-0 at home to Vasco on 18 October and 2-1 at home to Vitória a week earlier, after a 2-0 loss at Cruzeiro. They have conceded 1.13 goals per game, the 3rd fewest, and have kept a clean sheet in 23% of matches.
São Paulo's 6.74 corners per game are the most in the division and their 13.94 fouls per game are the 2nd most. They score at the same 1.16 per game as Mirassol.
Mirassol possible starting lineup:
Walter; Igor Formiga, João Victor, Willian Machado, Reinaldo; Neto Moura, Denilson, Edson Carioca; Shaylon, Eduardo, Bruno Santos
São Paulo possible starting lineup:
Rafael; Newton, Robert Arboleda, Sabino, Pedro Lima; Iago, Damián Bobadilla, Marcos Antônio; Luciano, Artur, Jonathan Calleri
Artur has had two or more shots in five straight games, averaging three a game, and has put a shot on target in four in a row. Two or more shots is 1.50 at bet365.
Luciano has had at least one shot in eight consecutive games, averaging three a game, and is 1.03 at bet365 for another. He leads the line alongside Calleri.
Igor Formiga, the right-back, has made at least one tackle in 15 straight games, averaging 2.7, which ranks 8th in the competition. He has also had a shot in four of his last five, and one or more shots is 1.30 at bet365.
Robert Arboleda has made a tackle in four of his last five games and is 1.22 at bet365 for another. Bruno Santos has made a tackle in four of his last five for Mirassol and is 1.40 at bet365 for another.
We back Mirassol narrowly, at 2.32 with bet365, with São Paulo at 3.10 and the draw at 3.30 with Ladbrokes. We give the hosts a 39% chance of winning, the visitors 33% and the draw 28%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Mirassol win | 2.32 (bet365) | 39% |
| Draw | 3.30 (Ladbrokes) | 28% |
| São Paulo win | 3.10 (bet365) | 33% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 (bet365) | 77% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 (bet365) | 51% |
We project 1.42 goals for Mirassol and 1.30 for São Paulo. 1-1 is the likeliest score at 13%, though we make Mirassol slightly more likely to win, with 2-1 and 1-0 the next best results for the hosts. Both teams to score comes out at 56%, and Mirassol have conceded 1.42 goals a game, the 10th most.
Our prediction: Mirassol 1-1 São Paulo.
Kick-off is at 8:30pm UK time on Saturday 24 October 2026, at the Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
We predict a 1-1 draw. We give Mirassol a 39% chance of winning, São Paulo 33% and the draw 28%.
Mirassol are the narrow favourites at 2.32 with bet365, with São Paulo at 3.10 and the draw at 3.30 with Ladbrokes.
We give both teams to score a 56% chance, with a price of 1.80 at bet365. Mirassol have seen both teams score in 65% of their games, the 5th highest rate in the league.
Mirassol are 14th on 36 points from 31 games. São Paulo are 9th on 42 points from the same number of games.
Artur has had two or more shots in five straight games for São Paulo, while Mirassol's Igor Formiga has made a tackle in 15 straight games.
Mirassol: Walter; Igor Formiga, João Victor, Willian Machado, Reinaldo; Neto Moura, Denilson, Edson Carioca; Shaylon, Eduardo, Bruno Santos. São Paulo: Rafael; Newton, Robert Arboleda, Sabino, Pedro Lima; Iago, Damián Bobadilla, Marcos Antônio; Luciano, Artur, Jonathan Calleri.