Fluminense host Internacional at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 22:30 UK, in the Campeonato Brasileiro. Fluminense are 5th in the table on 51 points from 32 games. Internacional are 16th on 35, with 11 draws already on their record.
Fluminense have lost four of their last five in all competitions, but we still make them favourites at 50%.
Fluminense went down 2-1 at Chapecoense on Saturday in the league, and two days earlier won 1-0 at Palmeiras in the Copa Libertadores. Before that came a 2-1 home defeat to Santos and a 2-1 home loss to Palmeiras in the Copa Libertadores, with a 1-0 loss at Flamengo before that. They have lost six of their last ten games in all competitions.
Fluminense average 1.56 goals a game, the 4th most in the division, and their shots on target come in at 5.53 a game, the 2nd most. Both teams have scored in 72% of their games, the 2nd highest rate in the league.
Internacional come in off a 3-0 home win over Botafogo on Saturday. That followed a 2-0 loss at Mirassol, a 1-1 draw at Grêmio and a 2-1 home win over Corinthians. Their goals are hard to come by, 1.13 a game, the 6th fewest, but they defend reasonably, conceding 1.25 a game, the 7th fewest. They also foul more than anyone in the league, 15.56 a game, and win the 4th most corners.
Fluminense possible starting lineup:
Fábio; Guga, Ignácio, Thiago Silva, Renê; Nonato, Hércules; Canobbio, Ganso, Savarino; Hulk
Internacional possible starting lineup:
Kauan; Juninho, Mercado, Bruno Gomes; Bernabei, Thiago Maia, Villagra, Aguirre; Alan Patrick, Vitinho; Alerrandro
Bruno Gomes (Internacional) has made three or more tackles in four straight games, averaging five, and Ladbrokes have him at 2.50 to do it again. He has also committed a foul in ten in a row, and is 1.25 at Midnite to foul again.
Braian Aguirre (Internacional) has had two or more shots in four consecutive games, averaging three, and is 2.70 at Ladbrokes to make it five.
Rodrigo Villagra (Internacional) has made at least one tackle in 15 straight games, averaging 1.9 a game, and is 1.13 at bet365 to make another.
Ganso (Fluminense) has committed a foul in six games running, averaging one a game, and is 1.44 at bet365 to do it again. Nonato has tackled in seven straight games, at 2.4 a game, and is 1.10 at bet365 to tackle again.
We back Fluminense, who are 1.85 at Ladbrokes to win at home. We make them 50% to win, with the draw at 27% and Internacional at 23%.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Fluminense win | 1.85 (Ladbrokes) | 50% |
| Draw | 3.50 (bet365) | 27% |
| Internacional win | 4.50 (bet365) | 23% |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 (Ladbrokes) | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 (Midnite) | 50% |
Our prediction is Fluminense 1-1 Internacional. 1-1 is the likeliest single score at about 13%, though we make Fluminense 50% to win against 23% for Internacional. We project 1.63 goals for Fluminense and 1.05 for Internacional, with a 76% chance of at least two goals in the game and 50% for over 2.5.
Alexandro Bernabei has committed two or more fouls in each of his last five games for Internacional, and Midnite have him at 1.44 for another two. For Fluminense, Ignácio has committed a foul in four straight games, averaging 2.5, and is 1.30 at Midnite to do it again.