Vasco da Gama host Flamengo at the Estádio Club de Regatas Vasco da Gama on Thursday 29 October, with kick-off at 11pm UK time. It is a Rio derby between a side sitting 13th in the Campeonato Brasileiro table and the team at the top of it, 70 points to Vasco's 38.
Flamengo have lost only four of 32 league games and score more goals per game than anyone in the division. Vasco have the 3rd most shots on target per game in the league, and they scored three at home to Corinthians on 24 October.
Flamengo have won 21 and drawn seven of their 32 league games, scoring 64 and conceding 27. They score 2.00 goals a game, the most in the league, and concede 0.84, the 2nd fewest. They have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games, the 2nd highest rate. They are unbeaten in their last ten games in all competitions, with six wins and four draws. Their latest game was a 3-2 win over Atlético-MG on Monday, after a goalless draw with Estudiantes in the Copa Libertadores and a 3-0 win at Bahia before that.
Vasco have won 10, drawn eight and lost 13 of 31, with 39 scored and 45 conceded. Their last five games were a 0-0 draw with Remo, a 1-0 win away to Boca Juniors in the Copa Sudamericana, a 1-0 loss at São Paulo, a 3-1 home defeat to Boca in the same competition and a 3-2 win over Corinthians last time out.
Vasco's shots on target come in at 5.42 a game and their goals at 1.26. Both teams score in 61% of their games, the 8th highest rate, and they keep a clean sheet in only 13%, the 4th lowest. Flamengo's shots on target average 5.75, the most in the league.
Vasco da Gama possible starting lineup:
Léo Jardim; José Luis RodrÃguez, Saldivia, Robert Renan, Cuiabano; Lescano, Sosa, Thiago Mendes; Hinestroza, Colidio, Bruno Duarte
Flamengo possible starting lineup:
Rossi; Varela, Léo Ortiz, Léo Pereira, Ayrton Lucas; Pulgar, Jorginho; Plata, de Arrascaeta, Lino; Pedro
Facundo Colidio has had two or more shots in ten straight games, averaging 3.7 a game. He is 1.13 at Ladbrokes to make it eleven.
Giorgian de Arrascaeta has had three or more shots in four consecutive games, averaging 3.8, and is 1.83 at bet365 to go again. Alongside him, Samuel Lino has had a shot in eight straight games and is 1.05 at bet365.
Pedro has had two or more shots in each of his last five games and is 1.25 at bet365 to do it again.
Thiago Mendes has had a shot in four of his last five, with a three-shot game in there, and is 1.57 at bet365 to have a shot.
We make Flamengo the likelier winners at 43%, and the best price on them is 1.80 with Ladbrokes. Vasco are 4.33 at bet365 and the draw is 3.90 at Ladbrokes.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Vasco da Gama win | 4.33 (bet365) | 30% |
| Draw | 3.90 (Ladbrokes) | 27% |
| Flamengo win | 1.80 (Ladbrokes) | 43% |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 (bet365) | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 (bet365) | 54% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single score at 13%, though we make Flamengo the clearer favourites at 43%, against 30% for Vasco and 27% for the draw. We project 1.58 goals for Flamengo against 1.28 for Vasco, put both teams scoring at 58%, and make 1-2 the next likeliest score at 9%.