Bragantino host Chapecoense at the Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid on Wednesday 28 October, kick-off 22:30 UK, in a Campeonato Brasileiro game between the 10th-placed side and bottom-placed Chapecoense, who have won four of their 31 games and lost 18.
Bragantino lost 2-0 at Palmeiras last time out, while Chapecoense beat Fluminense 2-1 at home to end a run of three league defeats.
Bragantino have 41 points from 32 games, with 11 wins, 8 draws and 13 defeats. They have won two of their last ten, and their last five games were a 2-0 loss at Palmeiras, a 1-1 draw at Remo, a 4-2 win over Cruzeiro, a 1-1 draw with Mirassol and a 1-0 defeat at Atlético-MG. At the back they concede 1.19 a game, the 4th fewest in the league, with the 6th highest clean-sheet rate, and they average the 4th most shots on target and the 2nd most corners. Only 38% of their games go over 2.5 goals, the 2nd lowest rate in the division.
Chapecoense sit 20th on 21 points, with 4 wins, 9 draws and 18 defeats from 31. They score 1.03 goals a game, the fewest in the league, and concede 2.03, the most, and they have kept a clean sheet in just 6% of their games, the lowest rate going. They also manage the 2nd fewest shots on target and the 2nd fewest corners. They have won one of their last five, a 2-1 win over Fluminense that followed a 1-0 loss at Botafogo, a 4-1 home defeat to Athletico PR and a 4-0 defeat at Vitória; before those they drew 1-1 at Atlético-MG. 65% of their games have seen both sides score, the 6th highest rate, and 58% have gone over 2.5 goals, the 5th highest.
Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Cleiton; Guzmán RodrÃguez, Alix, Fabinho, Juninho Capixaba; Matheus Fernandes, José Herrera, Ryan Augusto Tavares da Silva; Lucas Barbosa, Isidro Pitta, Fernando
Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Anderson; Bruno Pacheco, Doma, Faria, Bruno Tubarão; Fernando, Bruno Matias; MaurÃcio Garcez, Giovanni Augusto, Marcinho; Yannick Bolasie
Juninho Capixaba has made at least one tackle in 17 straight games, averaging 2.2 a game across the run, and is 1.08 at bet365.
Lucas Barbosa has had a shot in 16 successive games, averaging 2.4 across the run, while Fernando has done the same in 15 in a row, averaging 3.2. Their bet365 prices are 1.02 and 1.01.
José Herrera has had a shot on target in three straight games and is 1.30 at ladbrokes. Fabinho has made a tackle in nine straight games, averaging 1.7 across the run, and is 1.11 at ladbrokes.
For Chapecoense, Marcinho has committed a foul in nine straight games and is 1.22 at midnite, averaging 1.6 across the run.
We back Bragantino to win, and the best price on the home side is 1.30 at Ladbrokes. We give them a 70% chance of winning, with the draw at 18% and Chapecoense at 12%. We project 2.42 goals for Bragantino and 0.92 for Chapecoense.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Bragantino win | 1.30 (Ladbrokes) | 70% |
| Draw | 5.75 (Ladbrokes) | 18% |
| Chapecoense win | 10.00 (bet365) | 12% |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 (bet365) | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 (bet365) | 65% |
Our prediction is Bragantino 2-0 Chapecoense, the likeliest single score at 10.4%, with 2-1 next at 9.6% and 1-1 at 8.7%. Chapecoense have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their league games, the lowest rate in the division, and we give Bragantino a 40% chance of keeping one, having done so in a quarter of their league games this season.