Remo welcome Botafogo to the Estádio Estadual Jornalista Edgar Augusto Proença in the Campeonato Brasileiro on Thursday 29 October, with kick-off at 00:30 UK.
Remo sit 19th of 20 on 26 points from 32 games, with five wins, eleven draws and sixteen defeats. Botafogo are 11th on 39 points, and both clubs have conceded more than a goal and a half per game. We have Botafogo narrowly ahead: 36% for Botafogo, 35% for Remo and 29% for the draw.
Remo have not won in their last ten. Their league position of 19th comes with 34 goals scored and 50 conceded, and they average just 1.06 goals a game, the 3rd fewest in the division. They drew goalless at Vasco on 10 October, drew 1-1 with Bragantino at home on 18 October, then lost 1-0 at Cruzeiro last time out. Their shots on target sit at 3.84 a game, the 4th fewest in the league.
At the back they have kept a clean sheet in only 13% of games, the 4th lowest rate. Both teams have scored in 59% of their matches, the 9th highest figure in the league.
Botafogo arrive after a 3-0 defeat at Internacional, which followed a 1-0 home win over Chapecoense and a 1-1 draw at Coritiba. They concede 1.59 goals a game, the 2nd most in the league, and score 1.38, the 8th most. Both teams have scored in 66% of Botafogo matches, the 4th highest rate, and 63% of them have gone over 2.5 goals, the 3rd highest.
They create more than Remo too, with 5.22 shots on target a game, the 6th most. Only 16% of their games have ended in a clean sheet, the 5th lowest rate.
Remo possible starting lineup:
Marcelo Rangel; Marcelinho, Marllon, Tchamba, Marlon; Zé Welison, Zé Ricardo, Patrick Bezerra do Nascimento; Antonio Galeano, Jajá, Gabriel Taliari
Botafogo possible starting lineup:
Gabriel Batista; Vitinho, Ferraresi, Huguinho, Alex Telles; Marçal, Allan, Medina; Ziyech, Matheus Martins, Tiquinho Soares
Nahuel Ferraresi has made at least one tackle in 21 straight games, averaging 2.5 a game, and has also committed a foul in 16 consecutive matches. He is 1.30 at bet365 to foul again.
Matheus Martins has had a shot in 17 straight games, averaging 2.3 a match.
For Remo, Gabriel Taliari has registered at least one shot in 11 consecutive games, averaging 2.2, and he is 1.06 at bet365 to keep it going.
Zé Ricardo and Antonio Galeano have each committed two or more fouls in four straight games, both at 2.8 a game. Galeano is 2.38 at bet365 to make it five.
We make this a very even game, with Botafogo a fraction ahead, and the bookmakers have them as favourites too: the best price on the away win is 2.37 at Ladbrokes, with Remo 2.82 at bet365 and the draw 3.60 at Ladbrokes. On goals, both teams to score is 1.57 and over 1.5 goals 1.22, both at bet365, and over 2.5 is 1.70 at bet365.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Remo win | 2.82 (bet365) | 35% |
| Draw | 3.60 (Ladbrokes) | 29% |
| Botafogo win | 2.37 (Ladbrokes) | 36% |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 (bet365) | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.70 (bet365) | 48% |
1-1 is the likeliest single score at 14%, though we make Botafogo marginally more likely to win overall, at 36% against 35% for Remo. We project 1.29 goals for Remo and 1.32 for Botafogo, put both teams scoring at 54%, and give a clean sheet a 27% chance for Remo and 28% for Botafogo.
Statz prediction: Remo 1-1 Botafogo.