SJ Earthquakes host Colorado Rapids at PayPal Park on Thursday 29 October, with kick-off at 02:30 UK. The two sides drew 1-1 in Colorado on 11 October, and this return meeting comes with San Jose 4th in the Western Conference on 48 points and Colorado 8th on 42, six points back with the same 31 games played.
San Jose have drawn three of their last five, with one win and a heavy defeat at Dallas last time out. Colorado have won only one of their last five, but that win kept a clean sheet and they have conceded 1.32 goals a game this season.
San Jose have lost once in their last ten games, drawing six and winning three, so the Earthquakes have been hard to beat without being able to pull clear. The 3-0 loss at Dallas on 25 October was that one defeat. Before it came a 1-1 home draw with Nashville SC, a 1-1 draw at RSL and the 1-1 draw at Colorado. Their last win was a 3-1 home victory over Portland on 27 September.
Over the season San Jose have scored 52 and conceded 45. Per game that is 1.68 for, the 13th most in MLS, and 1.45 against, the 10th fewest. They also win plenty of corners, averaging 6.03 a game, the 2nd most in MLS, and average 4.81 shots on target a game, the 15th most.
Colorado won 1-0 at home to Vancouver on 25 October, after a 0-0 draw at Portland, a 2-2 draw with Minnesota and that 1-1 draw with San Jose. Before those came a 3-2 defeat at LA Galaxy. Their record of 12 wins, 6 draws and 13 defeats is propped up by defence: 1.32 conceded per game is the 6th fewest, and their 35% clean-sheet rate is the 5th highest.
The flip side is a quiet attack. Colorado score 1.35 a game, the 9th fewest, and their 4.39 shots on target per game is the 6th fewest. Only 45% of their games have seen both teams score, the 3rd lowest. They also average 2.68 cards a game, the most in MLS, and give away 14.42 fouls a game, the 2nd most.
SJ Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Gunn; Munie, Romney, Roberts, Ricketts; Jasinski, Vieira, Löwen, Leroux; Werner, Bouda
Colorado Rapids possible starting lineup:
Hansen; Thompson, Holding, Cobb, Navarro; Ojediran, Atencio, Phillip, Frederick; Aaronson, Whittaker
Beau Leroux has committed a foul in nine straight games and had a shot in each of the last four, and he is 1.29 with midnite to foul again. His midfield partner Ronaldo Vieira has fouled in seven in a row and is 1.13 with midnite.
For Colorado, Miguel Navarro has made at least one tackle in seven straight games, and the left-back has also fouled in four of his last five. Wayne Frederick has committed two or more fouls in three straight games and is 2.15 with midnite to do it again.
San Jose centre-back Reid Roberts has fouled in four straight games and is 1.30 with midnite to foul again, while forward Ousseni Bouda has fouled in three straight and is 1.18 with midnite.
We back San Jose, who are 2.20 with bet365 to win, with our model giving them a 41% chance. A draw is 3.70 and Colorado 2.85.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| SJ Earthquakes win | 2.20 (bet365) | 41% |
| Draw | 3.70 (bet365) | 28% |
| Colorado Rapids win | 2.85 (bet365) | 31% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 (bet365) | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 (bet365) | 52% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 (midnite) | 77% |
We expect San Jose to score around 1.5 goals and Colorado around 1.3. Our prediction is a 1-1 draw, the likeliest single scoreline at 13%, though we make San Jose slightly more likely to win the game. 2-1 and 1-0 to the hosts come next.
On the player markets, Leroux to foul is 1.29 with midnite, and Frederick for two or more fouls is 2.15, the longer price of the two.