Seattle Sounders host Houston Dynamo at Seattle Stadium in Major League Soccer, with kick-off at 02:30 UK time on Thursday 29 October. The two clubs sit only two places apart, with Houston 5th in the Western Conference on 48 points and Seattle 7th on 43, and both have played 31 games. Houston have drawn their last four games, and Seattle have scored in their last two.
Both defences are among the stingiest in MLS: each side concedes 1.26 goals a game, the 4th fewest. A couple of players on both sides also have long shooting runs.
Seattle are 7th in the Western Conference with 11 wins, 10 draws and 10 defeats, and a goal difference of plus two. They come in unbeaten in two, but both were draws: 2-2 at San Diego on 25 October and 1-1 at home to CF Montréal a week earlier. Before that came a 1-0 loss at Dallas, which followed a 3-0 win at New England.
The Sounders' strength is at the back. They concede the 4th fewest goals per game in MLS at 1.26 and have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their matches, the 6th highest rate. They are disciplined too, with the 2nd fewest cards at 1.68 a game and the 4th fewest fouls at 10.13. At the other end they create chances without scoring many, with the 10th most shots on target but the 8th fewest goals per game.
Houston are 5th in the Western Conference with 13 wins, 9 draws and 9 defeats. Their last four games were all draws: 0-0 with Minnesota, 2-2 with Dallas, 3-3 at San Diego and 2-2 at Minnesota. Before them came a 2-0 home defeat to Sporting KC on 27 September.
Houston share Seattle's defensive numbers, with the 4th fewest goals against and clean sheets in 39% of games, the 3rd highest rate. Both teams to score lands in only 42% of their matches, the lowest in MLS, and the same goes for over 2.5 goals. They are among the lowest for shots on target too, the 5th fewest, and have the 4th fewest corners.
Seattle Sounders possible starting lineup:
Thomas; Kossa-Rienzi, Hawkins, Ragen, Nouhou; Dotson, Roldán, Gomez; Rusnák, Morris; Joveljić
Houston Dynamo possible starting lineup:
Bond; Ennali, Halter, Antônio Carlos, Negri; Artur, Herrera, Bouzat; Bogusz, Guilherme; Foster
Dejan Joveljić has had a shot on target in 11 straight games and at least two shots in nine in a row, averaging 3.6 a game over that spell. He is 1.18 with bet365 for a shot on target and 1.10 with midnite for two or more shots.
For Houston, Guilherme has had a shot in 20 consecutive games, averaging three a game, and Mateusz Bogusz has done it in 18 in a row at 3.2 a game. Bogusz has had at least two shots in four of his last five, with a high of four. Guilherme has had a shot on target in four of his last five.
Seattle's H. Dotson has had a shot in four straight games and is 1.25 with bet365 for another.
We back Seattle, who are 1.76 at bet365 to win at home. We give them a 50% chance of the win against 27% for the draw and 23% for a Houston victory, and project 1.61 goals for the Sounders to 1.04 for the Dynamo.
| Market | Best price | Statz chance |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle win | 1.76 | 50% |
| Draw | 4.00 | 27% |
| Houston win | 4.10 | 23% |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | 53% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 | 49% |
We predict a 1-1 draw, which is the likeliest single score at 13%, though we make Seattle the more probable winner. 1-0 and 2-1 to the hosts follow. We give Seattle a 35% chance of a clean sheet and Houston 20%.
For a bet builder, Guilherme to have a shot on target is 1.57 with bet365, Dotson for a shot is 1.25 with bet365, Bogusz for two or more shots is 1.29 with bet365 and Nouhou for a foul is 1.40 with midnite.